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tical Office of the Republic of SerbiaBelgrade

Data sources: results of ad hoc survey (health care, education and tips), HBS, turnover in catering trades ... tips restaurants, bars and cafes, hairdressers and beauty shops, ...

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tical Office of the Republic of SerbiaBelgrade

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    www.statserb.sr.gov.yu pub@statserb.sr.gov.yu Eurostat-OECD Workshop on the Non-Observed Economy for the Western Balkan Region, Paris, 23rd to 25th January 2006 MEASUREMENT OF THE NON-OBSERVED ECONOMY: EXHAUSTIVENESS ADJUSTMENTS IN THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA FOR THE YEAR 2003, USING EUROSTAT’S TABULAR APPROACH Dragana Ratkovic National Accounts Department www.statserb.sr.gov.yu pub@statserb.sr.gov.yu Compiling the national accounts: Data sources Annual financial statements Distributed public revenues and expenditures BoP Regular statistical surveys Adjustments Business and national accounts rules Imputed rents and other estimates Exhaustiveness www.statserb.sr.gov.yu pub@statserb.sr.gov.yu Exhaustiveness Adjustment – OUTPUT APPROACH Estimates for certain elements since 1997 NOE project – defining the different types (N1-N7) Measurement of the exhaustiveness adjustment (GVA) Impact on GDP - total - by type - by institutional sectors - by activities www.statserb.sr.gov.yu pub@statserb.sr.gov.yu N1 Deliberately non-registering - underground 1. Labour input method – unregistered employment – private ownership (small size enterprises and entrepreneurs) Data sources: financial statements and surveys Balancing and comparing VA/emp. Sector – S.11, S.14 NACE activity – G, O, F Estimate2003 – 36270.5 mill. din. or 3.31% of GDP www.statserb.sr.gov.yu pub@statserb.sr.gov.yu N1 Deliberately non-registering - underground Preliminary LFS results (2004) – full-time Data sources: financial statements, surveys and LFS Sector – S.11, S.14; NACE activity – G, O, F Estimate2003 – 46898 mill. din. or 4.28% of GDP – included in summary results (Table 1) 3. Preliminary LFS results (2004) – full-time equivalent Data sources: financial statements, surveys and LFS Estimate2003 – 82194 mill. din. or 7.5% of GDP www.statserb.sr.gov.yu pub@statserb.sr.gov.yu N2 Illegal activities Experimental estimates for drugs and prostitution have been made Drugs Data sources: Ministry of Interior Affairs, Institute of Addictive Disorders, international surveys (UNODC – World Drug Report 2005), research journalists, experience from other countries Estimates from supply and demand side Sector – S.14 NACE activity – G Estimate2003 – 3258.7 mill. din. or 0.3% of GDP www.statserb.sr.gov.yu pub@statserb.sr.gov.yu N2 Illegal activities Prostitution Data sources: Ministry of Interior Affairs (number of registered prostitutes in Belgrade), research journalists, external studies, experience from other countries Rough estimates (approximate monthly income, number of prostitutes, working months and IC = 20% of Output) Sector – S.14 NACE activity – O Estimate2003 – 7302.4 mill. din. or 0.67% of GDP www.statserb.sr.gov.yu pub@statserb.sr.gov.yu N3 Producers not required to register No need for specific adjustments of non-coverage Production for own consumption – crops and livestock products and processing of agriculture products is included in the gross output Construction of dwellings - stipulated by law - building permits - process of legalization in 2003 www.statserb.sr.gov.yu pub@statserb.sr.gov.yu N4 Company is registered but not surveyed Data sources: Administrative Register of legal persons (status on the 31.12.2003), Tax payers register (TIN), Financial statements (submitted) Measurement: updating the Administrative Register using TIN and FS and adding the closed legal persons Assumptions: those failing to submit FS – ratio of VAT-payers and taxpayers; closed legal persons were active for 4 months Sector – S.11 NACE activity – A, D, G, I, L Estimate2003 – 25226,1 mill. din. or 2.3% of GDP www.statserb.sr.gov.yu pub@statserb.sr.gov.yu N5 Registered entrepreneurs not surveyed Data sources: Unique Register of shops, Tax payers register (TIN), regular statistical survey Measurement: updating the Unique Register of shops using TIN and data from survey and adding closed shops; estimating number of employees Assumption: entrepreneurs have to act as small size enterprises within the private ownership Sector – S.14 NACE activity – D, G Estimate2003 – 1794.3 mill. din. or 0.16% of GDP www.statserb.sr.gov.yu pub@statserb.sr.gov.yu N6 Producers deliberately misreporting Data sources: Financial statements, statistical surveys results, indicators according to the size of the enterprise Measurement: two steps: 1. Value added per worker – underestimated; 2. IC/Output – overestimated Assumption: small-size enterprises – weighted average for medium and large size ones (excluded large companies with monopolistic status); entrepreneurs - as small size enterprises Sector – S. 11, S.14; NACE activity – G, K, D, F Estimate2003 – 70402 mill. din. or 6.43% of GDP www.statserb.sr.gov.yu pub@statserb.sr.gov.yu N7 Other statistical deficiencies Data sources: results of ad hoc survey (health care, education and tips), HBS, turnover in catering trades Measurement: health care – direct payments (mainly in kind) by the households considered as wages and salaries in kind; education – supplementary private classes; tips – restaurants, bars and cafes, hairdressers and beauty shops, taxi drivers, craftsmen Sector – S.11, S.13, S.14 NACE activity – M, N, H Estimate2003 – 4638.5 mill. din. or 0.42% of GDP www.statserb.sr.gov.yu pub@statserb.sr.gov.yu Exhaustiveness adjustment (N1-N7) - summary www.statserb.sr.gov.yu pub@statserb.sr.gov.yu Exhaustiveness adjustment (N1-N7) – relative importance www.statserb.sr.gov.yu pub@statserb.sr.gov.yu Final remarks: Estimate of non-exhaustiveness was based on available statistical and administrative data sources Difficulties: the lack of SBR (updating and maintenance of administrative register) cooperation with Tax Authorities VAT was introduced in 2005 uncompleted results of LFS SUT have not been introduced yet possible double counting www.statserb.sr.gov.yu pub@statserb.sr.gov.yu Future work: Checking the results and implementing new data sources Labour force balancing (LFS final results) – N1 Verification of the results by experts – N2 Introducing the adjustments for non-exhaustiveness into the official national accounts (N4, N5, N6 and N7) Revision of GDP (1997-2004) www.statserb.sr.gov.yu pub@statserb.sr.gov.yu

    Slide 17: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia Belgrade, 5 Milana Rakica St. phone:+381 11 2412-922 fax:+381 11 411-260 information phone/fax: +381 11 2401-284 library and archives +381 11 2412-922/ext 251

    for further contacts e-mail: dratkovic@statserb.sr.gov.yu

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