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Texas Youth Crash Statistics . NTSB Forum on Improving Driver and Traffic Safety Education Presentation by Terry Kline, Ed.D. Associate Professor Eastern Kentucky University Traffic Safety Institute Loss Prevention and Safety Department College of Justice and Safety.

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Texas Youth Crash Statistics

NTSB Forum on Improving Driver and Traffic Safety Education

Presentation by

Terry Kline, Ed.D.

Associate Professor

Eastern Kentucky University

Traffic Safety Institute

Loss Prevention and Safety Department

College of Justice and Safety


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The Texas Situation

  • Certified Instructors were required until 1995

    • State certified curriculum

      • Three options for providing program

      • 32 hours classroom and 7 in-car most used

    • All instructors state certified

  • After 1995, parents were allowed to certify program completion

    • Used State certified curriculum provided by TX DPS

      • 32 hours of classroom and 14 in-car only option

    • Parents not required to be certified


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How Did This Happen?

  • Original concept for home-schooling

  • Law did not limit to home-schooled parent training

  • Certificates purchased from TX DPS

  • Full certification for licensing and insurance purposes

    • waiver of in-car driving for licensure

    • insurance certificate accepted as proof of completion


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Alternatives Considered

  • Parent training certification course

  • No parent training except for home-schooling with certification

  • Completion certificate would not be waiver for driving test


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Confounding Effects

  • Assumption of correct data supplied by TX DPS

  • Crash reporting differences

    • Age based recording changes 1998

    • Non-injury reports may be self-reported

  • National age comparison data may not be recorded in the same manner


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Research Statistics

Parent Certification efforts increase

Texas Education Agency, 2002


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Research Statistics

Change in Crash Rates for 15 year-old drivers

Year Age Rates Over (+)/ Under (–)

Crash Licensure Involvement *

2000 15 0.4 0.4 0.00 even

1999 15 0.3 0.4 0.25 –

1998 15 0.3 0.4 0.25 –

1997 15 0.2 0.4 0.50 –

1996 15 0.2 0.4 0.50 –

1995 15 0.2 0.4 0.50 –

1994 15 0.2 0.4 0.50 –

1993 15 0.2 0.4 0.50 –


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Research Statistics

Change in Crash Rates for 16 year-old drivers

Year Age Rates Over (+)/ Under (–)

Crash Licensure Involvement *

2000 16 2.8 1.0 1.80 +

1999 16 2.8 1.0 1.80 +

1998 16 2.7 1.1 1.46 +

1997 16 1.6 1.0 0.60 +

1996 16 1.7 1.1 0.56 +

1995 16 1.6 1.0 0.60 +

1994 16 1.6 1.0 0.60 +

1993 16 1.6 1.0 0.60 +


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Research Statistics

Change in Crash Rates for 17 year-old drivers

Year Age Rates Over (+)/ Under (–)

Crash Licensure Involvement *

2000 17 3.5 1.3 1.69 +

1999 17 3.3 1.3 1.54 +

1998 17 3.3 1.3 1.54 +

1997 17 3.1 1.0 2.10 +

1996 17 3.0 1.2 1.50 +

1995 17 2.9 1.1 1.60 +

1994 17 2.9 1.1 1.60 +

1993 17 2.8 1.1 1.54 +


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Research Statistics

Change in Crash Rates for 18 year-old drivers

Year Age Rates Over (+)/ Under (–)

Crash Licensure Involvement *

2000 18 4.0 1.6 1.50 +

1999 18 3.9 1.6 1.44 +

1998 18 3.7 1.6 1.31 +

1997 18 3.4 1.5 1.26 +

1996 18 3.3 1.4 1.36 +

1995 18 3.3 1.4 1.36 +

1994 18 3.1 1.4 1.21 +

1993 18 3.1 1.4 1.21 +


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Research Statistics

Stable Crash Rates for 19-21 year-old drivers

2000 19 3.9 1.8 1.16 +

1999 19 3.7 1.8 1.06 +

1998 19 3.5 1.7 1.06 +

1997 19 3.5 1.7 1.06 +

1996 19 3.5 1.7 1.06 +

1995 19 3.3 1.6 1.06 +

1994 19 3.3 1.6 1.06 +

1993 19 3.3 1.6 1.06 +

2000 20 3.6 1.8 1.00 +

1999 20 3.3 1.8 0.83 +

1998 20 3.3 1.8 0.83 +

1997 20 3.3 1.8 0.83 +

1996 20 3.2 1.8 0.78 +

1995 20 3.2 1.8 0.78 +

1994 20 3.1 1.8 0.72 +

1993 20 3.1 1.8 0.72 +

2000 21 3.3 1.8 0.83 +

1999 21 3.1 1.9 0.63 +

1998 21 3.1 1.9 0.63 +

1997 21 3.0 1.9 0.58 +

1996 21 3.1 1.9 0.63 +

1995 21 3.1 1.9 0.63 +

1994 21 3.0 1.9 0.58 +

1993 21 3.1 2.0 0.55 +


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Research Statistics

Texas Crash Rate Comparisons

Year Age Rates Over (+)/ Under (–) Rate of Rate of

Crash Licensure Involvement * Change Change

Involvement Baseline

1997-2000 <15 0.10 <0.05 >1.00 + 0% 100% down

1993-1996 <15 0.10 <0.05 >1.00 +(1 time lower than base rate)

1997-2000 15 0.30 0.40 0.25 – 50% up 15.66% up

1993-1996 15 0.20 0.40 0.50 –(15.7 times higher than base rate)

1997-2000 16 2.48 1.03 1.41 + 143% up 46.66% up

1993-1996 16 1.63 1.03 0.58 +(46.7 times higher than base rate)

1997-2000 17 3.30 1.23 1.68 + 7% up 1.33% up

1993-1996 17 2.90 1.13 1.57 +(1.33 times higher than base rate)

1997-2000 18 3.75 1.58 1.37 + 6% up 1.00% up

1993-1996 18 3.20 1.40 1.29 +(1 time higher than base rate)

1997-2000 19 3.65 1.75 1.08 + 2% up Baseline

1993-1996 19 3.35 1.63 1.06 +

1997-2000 20 3.38 1.80 0.80 + 6% up Baseline

1993-1996 20 3.15 1.80 0.75 +

1997-2000 21 3.13 1.88 0.66 + 1% up Baseline

1993-1996 21 3.08 1.93 0.60 +

Baseline rate of change is 3 % for 19 to 21 year-old drivers.

Baseline rate is expected rate of change based on population described above.


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Research Statistics

National Crash Rate Comparisons

Year Age Rates Over (+)/ Under (–) Rate of Rate of

Crash Licensure Involvement* Change Change

(Involvement) (Baseline)

1993-1996<16 0.50 <0.05 > 9.00 + 33% up 298% up

1997-2000 <16 0.65 <0.05 > 12.00 + (2.98 times higher than base rate)

1993-199616 2.80 0.83 2.37 + 14% up 69% up

1997-2000 16 3.25 0.88 2.69 + (0.69 times higher than base rate)

1993-199617 3.33 1.25 1.66 + 19% up 129% up

1997-2000 17 3.80 1.28 1.97 + (1.29 times higher than base rate)

1993-199618 3.53 1.40 1.52+ 5% up 40% down

1997-2000 18 3.90 1.50 1.60 + (0.40 times lower than base rate)

1993-1996 19 3.30 1.58 1.09 +

1997-2000 19 3.55 1.60 1.22 + 12% up Baseline

1993-1996 20 3.10 1.63 0.85 +

1997-2000 20 3.20 1.68 0.90 + 6% up Baseline

1993-1996 21 3.00 1.77 0.70 +

1997-2000 21 2.88 1.65 0.75 + 7% up Baseline

National baseline rate of change is 8.3% for 19 to 21 year-old drivers.

National baseline rate is expected rate of change based on population described above.


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Vision for the Future

  • More research is needed for novice drivers in all states to make some comparisons

  • Monies being directed to research problems of the older driver population than novice driver population

  • Need to find ways to improve our education process instead of giving up on a valuable means of getting a reliable knowledge base for all drivers

  • Current needed knowledge base is expanding dramatically but education efforts based on 1960- 1970 research and materials


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Summary

  • Effort is being made by Texas Transportation Institute and NHTSA to study novice driver crash rates

  • Need to develop educational base on basic knowledge and skills for Phase One

  • Need to develop educational base on crash causation for Phase Two

  • Need to provide materials for parent training for positive training reinforcement


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Texas Youth Crash Statistics

NTSB Forum on Improving Driver and Traffic Safety Education

Presentation by

Terry Kline, Ed.D.

Associate Professor

Eastern Kentucky University

Traffic Safety Institute

Loss Prevention and Safety Department

College of Justice and Safety


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