Project ERFEN on El Niño. Mr. VILLANUEVA Rogelio International Affairs Director Peruvian Marine Research Institute.
Project ERFEN on El Niño
Mr. VILLANUEVA Rogelio
International Affairs Director
Peruvian Marine Research Institute
First of all, I would like to express my thanks to the organizers of this SECOND APEC - OMISAR WORKSHOP ON OCEAN MODELS, specially to the State Oceanic Administration of the People’s Republic of China; please accept my gratitude for giving me the opportunity to be here in this wonderful city of Beijing.
My short statement has two main objectives; the first, is to use this important technical scientific Workshop to say a few words about the next Marine Resource Conservation Working Group Meeting. As you may know, during the 12th Meeting of the APEC Marine Resource Conservation Working Group, held in Cairns
Australia, my Institution THE PERUVIAN RESEARCH INSTITUTE, on behalf of Peru, offered to host the 13th Meeting of the APEC Marine Resource Conservation Working Group, next year.
In accordance with official information provided by the APEC Secretariat, The APEC Senior Officials agreed that the MRC and APEC Fisheries Working Group (FWG) should further pursue efforts to coordinate their activities, in order to avoid duplication of efforts. This statement has, in fact, excluded the possibility of amalgamating MRC and FWG as proposed earlier.
This decision was further endorsed by the APEC Ministers during their meeting in Auckland, last September; ”so in light of the above-mentioned decision”, I am very glad to inform here that we are already starting the preliminary internal arrangements for the 13th MRC, to be held in Peru in 2000.
Of course, I am very proud to be here to invite all of you, representatives of the APEC economies members, to attend that fore coming meeting.
I should mention that; although, the week connecting May and June 2000 has been proposed for the meeting, we have been notified that the date may need to be adjusted a little bit.
The second objective of my statement is to present an special Peruvian effort to monitor and forecast “El Niño” phenomenon, with the financial support of the World Bank. This is a multisectorial Project, which in some way has been made a reality due to the fact that, framed by the CPPS - South Pacific Permanent Commission, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru are engaged in a Regional Project named ERFEN (Spanish acronym for “El Niño” phenomenon regional study).
The following constitutes part of my presentation, based on that of Vice-Admiral (r) Luis A. Giampietri (President of the Board of Directors of IMARPE), before the Multisectorial Committee in charge of the Study of “El Niño” Phenomenon - ENFEN, last September.
Instituto del Mar del Perú
ENHANCEMENT OF THE CAPABILITY OF FORECASTING AND EVALUATING “EL NIÑO” PHENOMENON TO PREVENT DISASTERS IN PERU
Luis Giampietri Rojas
President of the Executive Council
Instituto del Mar del Peru
President of the Multisectorial Committee in charge of the National Study of “El Niño” Phenomenon - ENFEN
WORLD BANK PROJECT - ENFEN
Mulisectorial National Committeeis conformed by:
Mulisectorial National Committee - ENFEN
The committee is conformed by:
Mulisectorial National Committee - ENFEN
The study of “El Niño” phenomenon to understand its origins, its development in a short term basis (three months) and forecast its possible consequences (sea temperature, and rains and droughts in the Continent, mainly).
Coordinate, recommend and advise in relation with the activities linked to the phenomenon, locally (national institutions) and also abroad (ERFEN/CPPS Program).
ORGANIZATIONAL CHART OF THE PROJECT’s SUB-SYSTEMS
I G P
I G P
D H N
I G P
INFORMATION FLOW AMONG THE INSTITUTIONS WITHIN THE PROJECT
DATA DISTRIB. STAT.
STATIONS + RVS
1.Monthly Oceanographic bulleting.
2.Weekly bulleting informing about oceanographic conditions and their forecasts.
3.Weekly report of the surface temperature of the sea at the Peruvian coast.
4.Daily bulleting of the Peruvian sea useful for the fishery activity.
5.Weekly forecast of the coastal blooms.
1.Report of the status of the fishery resources in the Peruvian sea.
2. Report about the evolution of the environmental conditions, evidencing “El Niño”.
3.Report of fish captive studies.
4.Report about the behavior of fishes living in floating rafts.
5.Report on the biologicalindicators of oceanographic changes.
1.Meteorologic Forecast, with a projection of 72 hours (daily);
2.Synoptic Observance of South America (monthly);
3.Bulleting “El Niño” and “Niña”;
4.Bulletins about the behavior of rains;
5.Climatic Observance of Peru (monthly);
6.Monitoring and Evaluating ENSO (monthly);
8.Climatic Forecasts for Lima;
9.Bulleting “The Weather for Tourists” (in English and Spanish - daily).
10. Bulleting about iciness;
11.Impact of the Meteorological Conditions in Agriculture (daily);
12.Agro-climatic bulleting of Peer;
14.Hydrologic Observance by Importance of Basins.
1.Study of the atmospheric mechanisms of the Teleconnection during “El Niño event (strong and extreme).
2. Study about the influence of the Andes in the atmospheric circulation at meso and macroscale.
3.Study of the local circulation in zones of importance in events “El Niño/La Niña” (strong and extreme).
4.Evaluation of numeric modeling, with the objective of applying them in geographic specific zones.
5.Studies of the atmospheric behavior during “El Niño/La Niña events in relevant agriculture basins.
6.Study of the atmospheric mechanism for the occurrence of iciness in Peru.
7. Evaluation of the performance of models for the Prediction of summers in Peru.
8.Study about the maximum flows in the central-coast river of Peru.
9.Hydro balance of the Peruvian Amazonian Basin during “El Niño”1997-1998
10.Mathematic model of the basin of Chillón River.
11.Simulation of the volume of the Rímac River.
12.Study of storms in the Rímac River basin: area, intensity and duration.
1.Methods of assimilation of the data to the wind profiles in regional models.
2. Daily forecast of the weather; even, three days in advance.
3.Daily follow-up of the weather conditions.
4.Climatic forecasts, with some months of anticipation.
5.Monthly follow-up of the weather conditions and El Niño”.
6.Monthly weather and climatic bulletins.
7.Improvement of weather forecasts, increasing the resolution of models MM5, using faster workstations.
8.Study of the behavior of the winds in the atmosphere.
9.Study of the behavior of the oceanic currents.
10.Evaluation of numeric models, for the climatic and weather forecasts and their implementation in Peru.
11.Statistical seasonal forecasts of rains in the northern coast, during “El Niño”strong events.
1.Daily bulleting of the weather conditions in the Peruvian sea.
2.Daily forecasts of wave status, with a projection from three to four days.
3.Monthly bulletins of the ocean-atmosphere conditions in the Peruvian coast.
4.Weekly reports of the surface temperature of the sea, salinity and sea level of the coastal stations.
5.Weekly bulletins about wave conditions in the Peruvian coast.
1.Quarterly evaluation of the ocean-atmosphere conditions in the coast and Peruvian sea.
1.Reports preventing the possible occurrence of “El Niño” event, with permanent and close coordination with the Fishery Ministry and Ministry of the Presidency.
1.Perform studies about oceanic and biological modeling to carried out a forecast of the oceanographic conditions inside the Peruvian sea and their relation with the distribution of the fishery resources; as well as, studies to do biological researches in order to find indicators of water volume to identify oceanographic anomalies and of the biological resources, as preventers of “El Niño” phenomenon.
To improve the permanent monitoring, in space and time, of the meteorological and hydrological conditions (at national level), with the objective to benefit public service.
To develop researches, with automatic techniques, for climate and weather forecasting; using, interalia, meteorological prediction models, climatic and hydrologic and applications in different activities which contribute with the social-economic development of the Country.
It is required that the Peruvian university participates enhancing the areas of development of Climatic Modules and Locations, in permanent exchange of information among the Institutions of ENFEN.
The development of the Project means the beginning, by Peru, of what will be in the future the implementation of the project to enhance the regional capability of observance, diagnostic and prediction of the climatic variability at diverse scales, temporal spaces, associated with processes of interaction ocean-atmosphere-earth in the countries of the Southeast Pacific and adjacent ocean, with special emphasis in the cycle “El Niño”/ “La Niña” southern oscillation.