LAUR-01-1671. Determination of Upperbound Failure Rate by Graphic Confidence Interval Estimate. K. S. Kim (Kyo) Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos, NM 87545 E-mail: [email protected] Kim-1.
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U (1-P) is upper 100(1-P)% confidence limit (or interval) of ,
P is exceedance probability,
2(2N+2; 1-P) is chi-square distribution with 2N+2 degrees of freedom
(No occurrence for 3 components in 10 years, 80% Confidence Interval)
C=3, T=10 yr
U (80%)= Z/C*T
Spill frequency is less than
0.053/yr with 80% confidence
N=4, C=5, T=12 yrs
U(95%) = R*(N/CT)
Fire frequency is less than 0.15/yr
with 95% confidence