The Muslim World After 9/11 & the Iraq War - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The muslim world after 9 11 the iraq war l.jpg
Download
1 / 25

  • 357 Views
  • Updated On :
  • Presentation posted in: Travel / Places

The Muslim World After 9/11 & the Iraq War. February 2005. Understanding Emerging Threats: The Muslim World After 9/11 & the Iraq War. This study has several objectives: Develop a typology of tendencies in Muslim world Identify key cleavages and fault lines

Related searches for The Muslim World After 9/11 & the Iraq War

I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.

Download Presentation

The Muslim World After 9/11 & the Iraq War

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


The muslim world after 9 11 the iraq war l.jpg

The Muslim World After 9/11 & the Iraq War

February 2005


Understanding emerging threats the muslim world after 9 11 the iraq war l.jpg

Understanding Emerging Threats:The Muslim World After 9/11 & the Iraq War

  • This study has several objectives:

    • Develop a typology of tendencies in Muslim world

    • Identify key cleavages and fault lines

    • Identify the factors that produce extremism and violence

    • Analyze the effects of 9/11, the GWOT and Iraq

    • Develop recommendations for a U.S. strategy

  • The goals of the strategy are:

    • Help our friends and potential allies

    • Neutralize our adversaries

    • Influence those in the middle


Muslim tendencies marker issues l.jpg

Muslim Tendencies & Marker Issues

Seven TendenciesSeven marker issues

Radical FundamentalistsIdeology

Scriptural FundamentalistsPolitical/legal views

TraditionalistsViews of government

Modernists (liberal)Human rights

Modernists (Islamist)Social agenda

Liberal SecularistsPropensity for violence

Authoritarian SecularistsLinks to terrorism


Typology of muslim tendencies l.jpg

Typology of Muslim Tendencies

Radical or neo- Fundamentalists

Scriptural Fundamentalists

Traditionalists

Modernists

Liberal Secularists

Authoritarian

Secularists

Ideology

Emphasis on obligation of jihad

Literal interpretation of Islamic scriptures

Fuse Islamic beliefs with local traditions

Islam viewed as consistent with modern world

Liberal democratic or social democratic values

Leader cult and socialist and/or pan-Arab ideologies

Political-Legal

Revolutionary and anti-status quo

Politically conservative

Politically moderate

Politically moderate

Support secular law and institutions

Rely on authoritarian structures

Government

Political legitimacy derives from God

Political legitimacy derives from God

Political legitimacy derives from the will of the people

Political legitimacy derives from the will of the people through free elections.

Political legitimacy derives from the will of the people through free elections.

Political legitimacy derives from state ideology

Human Rights

Reject Western concept of human rights and individual liberties

Same

Islam guarantees human rights and liberties

Islam contains the basic concepts of human rights and individual freedoms

Primacy of individual political and human rights

Primacy of party and state and collective interests

Social Agenda

Generally reactionary

Reactionary

Conservative but many value non-religious subjects in education

Generally progressive

Progressive in education and women’s rights

Inconsistent

Links to Terrorism

Direct

Generally indirect

Usually none

Usually none

Usually none

Terrorism an instrument of state policy

Propensity for Violence

High

Situation-continent

Low

Low

Low

High


Muslim tendencies radical fundamentalists l.jpg

Democracy

+

-

1

1

1

Al-Qaida (international)

Laskar-e-Toiba (Pakistan)

Asnar al-Islam (Iraq)

PIJ - Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Hamas (Palestinian territories)

Saudi Salafist Groups

IMU - Islamic Movement of

Uzbekistan

Jemaah Islamiyah (SEA regional)

Hizbollah (Turkey)

+

1

1

Jama’at al Ulema-e-Pakistan

Jama’at-i-Islami (Pakistan)

Islamic Movement of Nigeria

Gama’a al-Islamiyya (Egypt)

Violence

1

1

1

1

1

1

-

Muslim Tendencies: Radical Fundamentalists

Hib ut-Tahrir (international)

MMI - Majlis Mujahidin Indonesia


Add scriptural fundamentalists l.jpg

Democracy

+

-

1

1

Hezbollah (Lebanon)1

Al-Qaida (international)

Laskar-e-Toiba (Pakistan)

Asnar al-Islam (Iraq)

PIJ - Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Hamas (Palestinian territories)

Saudi Salafist Groups

IMU - Islamic Movement of

Uzbekistan

Jemaah Islamiyah (SEA regional)

Hizbollah (Turkey)

Gama’a al-Islamiyya (Egypt)

+

1

1

Jama’at al Ulema-e-Pakistan

Jama’at-i-Islami (Pakistan)

Islamic Movement of Nigeria

Ennada (Tunisia)

Hib ut-Tahrir (international)

MMI - Majlis Mujahidin Indonesia

Violence

1

Muslim Brotherhood (regional)

SCIRI (Iraq)

Al-Dawa (Iraq)

1

1

1

Darul Arqam (SEA regional)

Jamaa-i-Tabligh (international)

1

-

Add Scriptural Fundamentalists


Add traditionalists and modernists l.jpg

Democracy

+

-

1

1

Hezbollah (Lebanon)1

Al-Qaida (international)

Laskar-e-Toiba (Pakistan)

Asnar al-Islam (Iraq)

PIJ - Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Hamas (Palestinian territories)

Saudi Salafist Groups

IMU - Islamic Movement of

Uzbekistan

Jemaah Islamiyah (SEA regional)

Hizbollah (Turkey)

Gama’a al-Islamiyya (Egypt)

+

1

1

Jama’at al Ulema-e-Pakistan

Jama’at-i-Islami (Pakistan)

Islamic Movement of Nigeria

Ennada (Tunisia)

Muslim Brotherhood (regional)

SCIRI (Iraq)

Al-Dawa (Iraq)

Hib ut-Tahrir (international)

MMI - Majlis Mujahidin Indonesia

Violence

1

PAS - Pan-Malay Islamic Party

Prosperous Justice Party (Indonesia)

1

Muhammadiyah (Indonesia)

AKP - Justice and Development

Party (Turkey)

Izala (Nigeria)

Al-Wasat (Egypt)

Nahdlatul Ulama (Indonesia)

Party of the Islamic Revival of

Tajikistan

Darul Arqam (SEA regional)

Jamaa-i-Tabligh (international)

1

-

Add Traditionalists and Modernists


Add secularists l.jpg

Democracy

+

-

1

1

Hezbollah (Lebanon)1

Al-Qaida (international)

Laskar-e-Toiba (Pakistan)

Asnar al-Islam (Iraq)

PIJ - Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Hamas (Palestinian territories)

Saudi Salafist Groups

IMU - Islamic Movement of

Uzbekistan

Jemaah Islamiyah (SEA regional)

Hizbollah (Turkey)

Gama’a al-Islamiyya (Egypt)

Baath Party of Iraq and Syria

+

1

1

Jama’at al Ulema-e-Pakistan

Jama’at-i-Islami (Pakistan)

Islamic Movement of Nigeria

Ennada (Tunisia)

Al-Fatah (Palestinian territories)

Hib ut-Tahrir (international)

MMI - Majlis Mujahidin Indonesia

Violence

1

PAS - Pan-Malay Islamic Party

Prosperous Justice Party (Indonesia)

Muslim Brotherhood (regional)

SCIRI (Iraq)

Al-Dawa (Iraq)

Neo-Destour Party (Tunisia)

Central Asian ruling parties

1

Muhammadiyah (Indonesia)

AKP (Turkey)

Izala (Nigeria)

Al-Wasat (Egypt)

Nahdlatul Ulama (Indonesia)

PDI-P (Indonesia)

Kuwait Nat. Democratic Movement

Democratic Left Party (Turkey)

Party of the Islamic Revival of

Tajikistan

Darul Arqam (SEA regional)

Jamaa-i-Tabligh (international)

1

-

Add Secularists


The muslim world is far from homogenous l.jpg

The Muslim World Is Far From Homogenous

T u r k i c

P e r s i an

A r a b

S o u t h A s i a n

B e r b e r – A f r i c a n

M a l a y


Briefing outline l.jpg

Briefing Outline

  • The Islamic Landscape

  • Fault lines in the Muslim World

  • Sources of Islamic Radicalism

  • Post-9/11 and Post-Iraq Trends

  • Conclusions


Sources of islamic radicalism l.jpg

Sources of Islamic Radicalism

Processes

Catalytic

Events

Conditions


Sources of islamic radicalism12 l.jpg

Sources of Islamic Radicalism

Conditions

  • Failed political and economic models

  • Structural anti-Westernism

  • Unresolved issues of state and religious authority

    Processes

  • The Islamic resurgence

  • Riyaldiplomatik: external funding of religious fundamentalism and extremism

  • Convergence of Islamism and tribalism

  • Growth of radical Islamic networks

  • Emergence of the mass media

  • The Palestinian-Israeli and Kashmir conflicts

    Catalytic Events

  • The Six-Day War (in Arab world)

  • The Iranian Revolution

  • The Afghan War

  • The (First) Gulf War

  • September 11 and the Global War on Terrorism

  • The Iraq War and its aftermath


Briefing outline13 l.jpg

Briefing Outline

  • The Islamic Landscape

  • Fault lines in the Muslim World

  • Sources of Islamic Radicalism

  • Post-9/11 and post-Iraq Trends

  • Conclusions


The war in iraq a catalytic event in the middle east l.jpg

The War in Iraq a “Catalytic Event”in the Middle East

On the order of the 1967 Six-Day War or higher

  • Western-led coalition assumed responsibility for restructuring political system of Muslim country

  • Effects of the war can be analyzed at three levels:

    • Effects on Iraq

    • Effects on Middle East

    • Effects on broader Muslim World


A strategy for the muslim world needs to include l.jpg

A Strategy for the Muslim WorldNeeds to Include:

A geopolitical vision of the Muslim world:

What kind of a Muslim world do we want to see emerge from the current turmoil?

And what are the engagement, military posture, and access implications of this vision?

Practical steps to:

(1) support friends and potential allies

(2) neutralize enemies

(3) appeal to mainstream Muslims: “The War of Ideas”


The centerpiece of the practical side of the strategy is to empower moderates l.jpg

The Centerpiece of the Practical Side of the Strategy is to Empower Moderates

  • Two components of this approach:

    • Help to create moderate Muslim networks

    • Support “Civil Islam”organizations

  • Currently radicals have the advantage

    • They are a minority, but have developed extensive international networks

    • Liberal and moderate Muslims have no similar networks

  • Creation of an international moderate Muslim network would provide a platform to amplify their message and protection

  • However, the initial impulse may require an external catalyst


And disrupt radicals l.jpg

And Disrupt Radicals

  • The U.S. and its allies also need to disrupt radical networks and deny resources to extremists

  • The key analytical/intelligence problem is: how can hostile networks be identified?

  • Within Western countries, policymakers need to be attentive to radical infiltration of prisons and the military

  • Resource denial involves difficult practical problems, but could be partially addressed through network disruption


Influence the muslim mainstream l.jpg

Influence the Muslim Mainstream

  • Obvious attempts by non-Muslims to influence Muslims would likely backfire.

  • U.S. needs to rely on Muslim scholars to delegitimize radical ideology

  • Over the long term, important to promote madrassa and mosque reform

  • What the U.S. and its allies can do:

    • Assist moderate madrassas to provide broad modern education & marketable skills

    • Assist governments in developing/strengthening capabilities to monitor mosques and madrassas


Seek to engage islamists in normal politics l.jpg

Seek to Engage Islamists in “Normal Politics”

  • Goal is to influence radicals into moderation

  • Always a danger that an Islamist party, once in power, may move against democratic freedoms

  • However, inclusion of such groups within democratic institutions may over time lessen threat

  • An unequivocal commitment to non-violence and democratic processes should be prerequisite

    • Turkey’s AKP an ambiguous model


Engage muslim diasporas l.jpg

Engage Muslim Diasporas

  • Engagement of Muslim diasporas could help U.S. advance its interests in Muslim world

  • One possibility is working with Muslim NGOs in responding to humanitarian crises

  • However, efforts to engage diasporas need to be undertaken cautiously

  • Need to be able to distinguish between “benign” and “malign” diasporan manifestations


Expand economic opportunities l.jpg

Expand Economic Opportunities

  • Will not by itself prevent extremists from striking at perceived enemies of Islam

  • However, might help to indirectly undercut the appeal of radicals

  • Priority on improving the economic/job prospects of the young

  • How international assistance is channeled is critical

  • Funding should not be politically neutral

    • Should emphasize programs run by secular or moderate Muslim organizations


Build appropriate military capabilities and posture l.jpg

Build Appropriate Military Capabilities and Posture

  • Comprehensive review of U.S. military capabilities and posture in Muslim world needed

  • New challenges require the U.S. to develop different kinds of military capabilities

    • counter-insurgency & stabilization capabilities

    • cultural intelligence

  • In Iraq, the U.S. faces a dilemma:

    • cannot leave without defeating insurgency or leaving power vacuum behind

    • but need to reduce visibility as “occupying power”


Geopolitical implications of pro democracy strategy l.jpg

Geopolitical Implications of Pro-Democracy Strategy

A pro-democracy strategy implies:

  • Re-examination of the current U.S. military relationship with authoritarian but “friendly” Muslim states

  • Hard-headed look at benefits/costs of such relationships

    What are the alternatives to authoritarian regimes?

    What is the risk/benefit balance?

  • Distancing from authoritarian but friendly regimes could have access implications as well

  • Compensate through closer engagement with countries undergoing democratic change


Engagement and access implications l.jpg

Engagement and Access Implications

  • In Arab world, shift focus of U.S. security relationships from authoritarian states (Saudi Arabia, Egypt) to democratizing states (Bahrain, Qatar)

  • Main operating bases in Iraq not desirable at this time, but should not foreclose option

  • Throughout the Muslim world:

    • seek to reduce “ungoverned areas” that can become havens for terrorists

  • Shift from bilateral to regional approaches to what are essentially transnational problems


Bottom line l.jpg

Bottom Line

  • Islamic radicalism is driven by complex and interactive factors

  • Some are common to Muslim world; others vary widely from region to region; regionally-based analysis is critical

  • Key challenge for the U.S. is to identify and find common ground with liberal Muslims and find ways to help them counter the extremists

  • Islamic networks play key role in spread of extremism; there is critical need to build moderate Muslim networks

  • Education a key battlefield: problem is how to move reform of both secular and Islamic schools

  • A democratization strategy will require comprehensive re-examination of U.S. defense relationships in Muslim world and will have engagement and access implications


  • Login