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Energy: Where On Earth Are We Going?. Ernie McFarland. June 1, 2007. Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. With thanks to: Iain Campbell (University of Guelph) Jim Hunt (University of Guelph) Al Bartlett (University of Colorado) Tom Kehn (University of Guelph)

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Energy where on earth are we going

Energy:

Where On Earth

Are We Going?

Ernie McFarland

June 1, 2007

Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory


Energy where on earth are we going

With thanks to:

Iain Campbell (University of Guelph)

Jim Hunt (University of Guelph)

Al Bartlett (University of Colorado)

Tom Kehn (University of Guelph)

Dugan O’Neil (Simon Fraser University)


Energy where on earth are we going

OVERVIEW

● Present world energy consumption

● U.S. and world oil production

● Fossil fuels: Climate change & air pollution

● Energy efficiency

● Some new technologies

● Other energy sources

● Where on Earth are we going?


Energy where on earth are we going

Photo Source: archaeologyinfo.com

Primitive Humans:

2000-3000 Calories per day

or about 10 MJ/day


Energy where on earth are we going

Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2006; U.S. Census Bureau


Energy where on earth are we going

Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2006; U.S. Census Bureau


Energy where on earth are we going

World Energy

Consumption

1860-2005

Photo source: www.worldofstock.com


Energy where on earth are we going

Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006, US Dept. of Energy, World Energy Council


Energy where on earth are we going

OVERVIEW

● Present world energy consumption

● U.S. and world oil production

● Fossil fuels: Climate change & air pollution

● Energy efficiency

● Some new technologies

● Other energy sources

● Where on Earth are we going?


Energy where on earth are we going

M. King Hubbert

(1903-1989)

Photo Source: www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/


Energy where on earth are we going

peak in 1973


Energy where on earth are we going

Major oil exporters to US:

Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq


Energy where on earth are we going

If world oil production is going

to peak soon,

what about using natural gas and coal?


Energy where on earth are we going

Fossil Fuel Reserves and Resources

(exajoules)

not including oil shales, gas hydrates, etc.

* Highly uncertain

Sources: World Energy Council, U.S. Energy Information Administration, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005,

Canadian Assoc’n. of Petroleum Producers.


Energy where on earth are we going

OVERVIEW

● Present world energy consumption

● U.S. and world oil production

● Fossil fuels: Climate change & air pollution

● Energy efficiency

● Some new technologies

● Other energy sources

● Where on Earth are we going?


Energy where on earth are we going

Greenhouse Effect

Source: NASA


Energy where on earth are we going

377 ppmv

in

2006

Year

Source: A. Neftel, H. Friedli, E. Moor, H. Lötscher, H. Oeschger, U. Siegenthaler, B. Stauffer

Physics Institute, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland

http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/trends.htm


Energy where on earth are we going

Source: World Data Center for Atmospheric Trace Gases, U.S. Department of Energy

http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html


Energy where on earth are we going

Source: Environment Canada


Energy where on earth are we going

Temp.

(deg.C)

0.0 corresponds to 1961-1990 avg.

Solid curve is moving 5-yr avg

Source: Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK

Ss

Source

Source: Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK


Energy where on earth are we going

Climate Change

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, Working Group Reports

● increase in average temperature of approx. 0.2oC

per decade for next two decades

● larger temperature increase in polar areas

● thawing of permafrost and ice

● rise in sea level (0.2 – 0.6 m) by 2090-2099

● shifting of ranges of forests, fisheries, & agriculture

more extreme weather (seen already):

● increase in precipitation, especially heavy

precipitation

● more droughts and flash floods in dry areas

● more extremely hot days, fewer extremely cold days


Energy where on earth are we going

1994

Chacaltaya

glacier,

Bolivia

2005

Photo Source:

National Geographic

June 2007


Energy where on earth are we going

29% since 1990


Energy where on earth are we going

Fossil-fuel-burning produces climate change.

But it produces other

air-pollution problems too!


Energy where on earth are we going

Ontario Medical Association

Report June 2005

● More than 5800 people in Ontario die prematurely every

year from air pollution.

● Combined healthcare and lost productivity costs are

well over a billion dollars.

● Approx. 17,000 Ontarians are admitted to hospitals annually

with health problems related to air pollution exposure.


Energy where on earth are we going

What To Do

About Climate Change

& Air Pollution??

● increase energy efficiency (conservation)

● explore new technologies (for coal-burning, for example)

● change to non-polluting energy sources

●prepare for warmer climate and wilder weather


Energy where on earth are we going

The University of Nebraska’s energy extension service

reports the following energy-saving suggestions

proposed by elementary school children.

● Dip everything that is made in stuff that glows in the dark.

● Put more hot sauce in the food.

● Make it a rule that there has to be at least two people

in every big bed that uses an electric blanket.

● Don’t stay in more than one room at a time.


Energy where on earth are we going

Efficiency of energy conversions

60-watt lightbulb


Energy where on earth are we going

= heatbulb


Energy where on earth are we going

Lighting Efficiencies

Tungsten incandescent 5%

Halogen bulb 7%

Light-emitting diode (LED) 10%

Fluorescent 20%


Energy where on earth are we going

Globe & Mail, April 26, 2007

“Canada to ban traditional light bulbs”

If all the households in Canada replace

incandescent bulbs with fluorescent bulbs,

it would be “the same as taking more than

1 million cars off the road.”


Energy where on earth are we going

What would be the actual reduction in CO2 emissions

annually in Canada, and how many cars would

have to be taken off the road to achieve the

same reduction?


Energy where on earth are we going

2004

Source: Natural Resources Canada

1990

Grand total residential Canadian energy use increased

from 1.29 EJ to 1.42 EJ from 1990 to 2004.


Energy where on earth are we going

12,375,000 households in Canada

28% of electrical energy

in Canada comes

from conventional

thermal stations.

(→ CO2)

Assume 5% loss in power lines.


Energy where on earth are we going

Efficiency of Generating Electricity

(major sources today)

Photos: Ontario Power Generation


Energy where on earth are we going

Disorder

and

Order


Energy where on earth are we going

Fossil-Fuel Plant Efficiency = 40%

remaining 60% of the energy waste heat


Energy where on earth are we going

Energy content of coal = 30 million J/kg

→ Using incandescent bulbs for Canadian

residential lighting requires 1.6 million tonnes of

coal, which produce 5.7 million tonnes of CO2.

Using fluorescent bulbs gives a

reduction of 75%, i.e., a reduction

of 4.3 million tonnes of CO2.


Energy where on earth are we going

Annual CO2 emissions per car?

20000 km annually

10 L per 100 km

therefore 2000 L of gasoline

→ produces 4.5 tonnes of CO2


Energy where on earth are we going

How many cars would have to be taken off

the road to achieve the same reduction in

CO2 emissions as by using fluorescent bulbs?


Energy where on earth are we going

Increasing transportation-energy efficiency

Drive a smaller vehicle

Buy a hybrid car

Use public transit, bicycle, or walk

Drive more slowly


Energy where on earth are we going

Data courtesy of Alan Hirsch


Energy where on earth are we going

Guelph Tribune,

May 19, 2006


Energy where on earth are we going

Gasoline Prices May 1, 2006


Energy where on earth are we going

What To Do

About Climate Change

& Air Pollution??

● increase energy efficiency (conservation)

● explore new technologies (for coal-burning, for example)

● change to non-polluting energy sources

●prepare for warmer climate and wilder weather


Energy where on earth are we going

“Clean” Coal

New ways to burn coal:

Pressurized Fluidized Bed Combustion

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle


Energy where on earth are we going

In one day, a large

coal-fired electric plant

uses enough coal to fill a

train 2.5 km (1.5 miles) long.

Photo source: National Geographic


Energy where on earth are we going

Strip-mining in

West Virginia

Photo Source: National Geographic


Energy where on earth are we going

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle

Exhaust gases

boil water for

steam turbine

 electricity

CO and H2

burned in gas

turbine

 electricity

Crushed coal mixed

with hot steam and

air (or oxygen)

 CO and H2

(or CO2 and H2)


Energy where on earth are we going

Integrated Gasification

Combined Cycle

● Overall efficiency might be as high as 60%.

● S comes out as hydrogen sulfide- easily captured

● N exits as ammonia – easily captured

● If O2 used instead of air in the gasifier,

the highly concentrated CO2 can be captured easily.


Energy where on earth are we going

Carbon (dioxide) Capture & Storage (CCS)

Electric power plants

● large centralized units

● emit ~ 1/3 of CO2 worldwide

3 ways to capture CO2

● precombustion separation → CO2 and H2 (as in IGCC plants)

● flue-gas separation using a liquid solvent

● burn fuel in oxygen → mainly CO2 and H2O

-- store captured CO2 underground as liquid under pressure

Costs: 1-5 ¢ (US) per kW∙h

10-20% more energy used for CCS


Energy where on earth are we going

CCS Storage Sites?

● depleted oil and gas reservoirs

● abandoned coal mines

● deep saline formations

Potential Problems

● leaks (rapid and slow)

● possible increases in seismicity

2 CCS electrical plants announced:

Scotland – completion 2009

California – completion 2011

Source: Natural Resources Defense Council


Energy where on earth are we going

What To Do

About Climate Change

& Air Pollution??

● increase energy efficiency (conservation)

● explore new technologies (for coal-burning, for example)

● change to non-polluting energy sources

●prepare for warmer climate and wilder weather


Energy where on earth are we going

Comparison of some possible U.S. Energy Sources

Adapted from J.M. Fowler, Energy and the Environment, Second Edition, Table 13-1,

McGraw-Hill, 1984


Energy where on earth are we going

Wind Energy

Source: Cdn. Wind Energy Assoc’n.

Total worldwide capacity = 59000 MW in 2005

up 24% from 2004

Leaders: Germany (18000 MW)

Spain 10000 MW

USA (9000 MW)

India (4000 MW)

Denmark (3000 MW)


Energy where on earth are we going

2006 1460

Source: Cdn. Wind Energy Assoc’n.


Energy where on earth are we going

Wind turbine power is proportional to:

(wind speed)3× (rotor blade length)2


Energy where on earth are we going

Solar Power

Passive solar heating

Active solar heating:

water and space

Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy


Energy where on earth are we going

Solar Electricity

Concentrators

Photovoltaic

Source: NREL

Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy


Energy where on earth are we going

World total photovoltaic power capacity = 5000 MW in 2005


Energy where on earth are we going

Photovoltaic (PV) cell efficiency = 10-15%

(mass-produced)

New PV cells being developed using organic

long-chain plastic polymers


Energy where on earth are we going

Solar Energy


Energy where on earth are we going

Nuclear Energy

436 nuclear power reactors worldwide

Total capacity 370,000 MW – generate 17% of world’s electricity

Source: International Atomic Energy Agency


Energy where on earth are we going

Source: International Atomic Energy Agency


Energy where on earth are we going

U-235 is only 0.7% of natural uranium, and only 4%

of typical reactor fuel.

Some of the U-238 is converted to Pu-239 (fissile).


Energy where on earth are we going

Nuclear Reactor “Generations”


Energy where on earth are we going

Nuclear Energy


Energy where on earth are we going

Where on Earth are We Going?

Photo Source: NASA


Energy where on earth are we going

From “Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage”

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2005


Energy where on earth are we going

Create an energy-supply

and technology basket

with lots of different items.

No energy source is perfect.

Each country and area has a different

mix of possible resources and technologies.


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