1 / 12

Monthly Minneapolis public drunkenness intakes Jan.’66-Jul’78

Monthly Minneapolis public drunkenness intakes Jan.’66-Jul’78. Source : Time Series Data Library www.datamarket.com. Meghan Burke. Goals. Provide a descriptive analysis of this time series Develop the best models to forecast future monthly Minneapolis public drunkenness intakes

vic
Download Presentation

Monthly Minneapolis public drunkenness intakes Jan.’66-Jul’78

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Monthly Minneapolis public drunkenness intakes Jan.’66-Jul’78 Source: Time Series Data Library www.datamarket.com Meghan Burke

  2. Goals • Provide a descriptive analysis of this time series • Develop the best models to forecast future monthly Minneapolis public drunkenness intakes • Understand the time series structure

  3. Initial Time Series Plot

  4. Time Series Comparison Initial Adjusted

  5. Time Series Comparison Adjusted Initial

  6. Model Comparisons • Best Smoothing Models: • Seasonal Exponential Smoothing • Winters Method • ARIMA (0, 0, 1)

  7. Seasonal Exponential Smoothing

  8. Winters Method

  9. ARIMA (0,0,3)

  10. Forecast Predictions from the Exponential Smoothing Models

  11. Comparing Forecast Predictions • Best Smoothing Model • Seasonal Exponential Smoothing

  12. Citation • David E. Aaronson, C. Thomas Dienes, and Michael C. Musheno,Changing the Public Drunkenness Laws: The Impact of Decriminalization, 12Law & Soc'y Rev.405 (1977), Available at: http://scholarship.law.berkeley.edu/facpubs/113

More Related