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中共未來二十年的發展

中共未來二十年的發展. 壹、戰略目標 經濟發展與成長 -> 期待 2050 年達到普遍小康經濟 與國際社會接軌 -> 成為舉足輕重，具有強大影響力，分擔國際重要責 任的區域大國。 統一中國 -> 最終目的和平統一台灣，保護領土主權之完整。 貳、基本條件 1. 和平與穩定的週邊與客觀環境 -> 沒有戰爭 2. 社會安全與內部穩定 -> 一黨專政下的持續改革 3. 有效政府與危機處理機制 -> 精英領導 參、當前與預期發展階段

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中共未來二十年的發展

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  1. 中共未來二十年的發展 壹、戰略目標 經濟發展與成長->期待2050年達到普遍小康經濟 與國際社會接軌->成為舉足輕重，具有強大影響力，分擔國際重要責 任的區域大國。 統一中國 ->最終目的和平統一台灣，保護領土主權之完整。 貳、基本條件 1.和平與穩定的週邊與客觀環境->沒有戰爭 2.社會安全與內部穩定 ->一黨專政下的持續改革 3.有效政府與危機處理機制->精英領導 參、當前與預期發展階段 第一階段(2000~2010)->經濟起飛，社會調整，社會穩定力量:期待 與希望。 第二階段(2010~2020)->政、經、社結構調整邁向區域與局部小康， 社會穩定力量:改革是否順應潮流所趨，精 英與中產階級是否認同。

  2. 第三階段(2020~2050)->政、經、社結構邁向成熟期全面小康逐步到第三階段(2020~2050)->政、經、社結構邁向成熟期全面小康逐步到 位社會穩定力量:有效的政治改革與民主機 制之建立。 肆、未來發展的主要挑戰 1.能源供應與消耗的挑戰 原油消耗:5.26 million bbL/d,2002 9.4 million bbL/d,2020 原油供應:1/3 import, 2002 3/4 import, 2020 主要油氣供應來源 油:中東 汽:俄羅斯、中東、印尼、澳洲 主要能源接收與分散站 廣東、浙江、江蘇沿海 2.能源安全挑戰 如何保障能源供應路線 1.海線交通 2.陸路油氣管線 3.石化工業區安全保障->沿海

  3. 3.自然生態安全保障之挑戰 4.解決之道 a.節約能源->替代能源，產業結構調整 b.合作開發新能源供應區，分散來源 ->參加合作開發能源地區，包括俄羅斯、中北亞(哈薩克、亞塞拜 然、蒙古)、中東(伊拉克、伊朗、蘇丹、沙特阿拉伯、科威特)， 南北美(加拿大、委內瑞拉)、澳洲。 5.水資源匱乏的挑戰 解決之道:積極邁向海洋資源開發 6.疾病與傳染病預防與治療之挑戰 HIV/AIDS->2030 預估500-1000萬帶原者 SARS，Chicken flue etc 解決之道:與世界衛生體系接軌，危機機制之建立 7.政府機構與職能改革調整的挑戰 a.公職人員過於龐大的挑戰 1997年公職人員佔全國總職工人數32% 每年吃掉全國生產總值20% ->現象:消耗國家財力效率低

  4. b.官僚體系過於龐大的挑戰 改革的惡性循環－”精簡－膨脹－再精簡－再膨脹” c.貪汙腐敗的挑戰 d.監督體制無能的挑戰 e.下情不能上達的挑戰 8.解決之道:推行民主化的政治體制改革->如何跨過地雷區 伍、初步結論 1.發展之路充滿不確定性與變動性 2.世局變動性仍強，和平環境是否維持長久仍為未知數 3.民意高漲衝擊體制改革速度加快，內部權力鬥爭加劇

  5. The PRC’s Developing Defense Strategy & Process of Military Modernization Andrew Nien-Dzu Yang Secretary General Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies update April 19. 2004

  6. The PRC’s Developing Defense Strategy & Process of Military Modernization Briefing Content Evolution of Military Strategy B. Evolution of Military Doctrine C. Stages of Military Modernization D. Implementation of Military Modernization E. Limits and Constraints

  7. A. Evolution of Military Strategy ─Strategic Retreat (1950-1978) characterized by Mao’s People’s War doctrine; fighting a total war ─Strategic Balance (1979-1989) characterized by US-China alliance in balancing USSR; emergence if local war concept ─Strategy of Active Defense (1990-1997) characterized by emergence of fighting a local war under high-tech conditions ─Strategy of Improved Active Defense by Adding Offensive Strike Capabilities (1997-) characterized by fight and win a local war under modern high-tech conditions

  8. B. Evolution of Military Doctrine The Relationship of PLA Doctrinal Developments to Force Structure

  9. C. Stages of Military Modernization The Relationship of PLA Doctrinal Developments to Modernization

  10. D. Implementation of Military Modernization1997-2010 a. Ground Force b. Air Force c. Navy d. Strategic Force (Second Artillery) e. Space Warfare capability

  11. a. Modernization: Ground Force Mission: Home Land Defense, Fight and Win a Local War under Modern Hi-Tech Conditions Status of Progress: Downsizing: further reduction is conceivable probably cut 0.5 million by 2005 continuous reduction until 2010 Restructuring: merging Nanjing MR and Jinan MR to consolidate and in crease command and control to Eastern Defense Create Rapid Deployment Forces and enhance Joint Operation: RDF composition: Air Borne Divisions, Special Forces Army Aviation Units, Marine Corp etc., totally 300,000 Command and Control of RDF: CMC

  12. b. Modernization: Air Force Mission: Air Defense, Ground Support, Precision Strikes with Guided munitions Status of Progress: improving jointness; all weather operational capabilities; Hi-Low-Law tactics Weapon system modernization SU-27 SU-30MMK J-10 FC-1 FB-7A

  13. c. Modernization: Navy Mission: Support national military objectives protect maritime interests Objective: develop “Air-Sea unified” combat capabilities Continued in next page

  14. Status of Progress: shipbuilding and acquisition processes Sovemmenny-class 052B 052C 054 039A(Song) 093 Kilo

  15. d. Strategic Force (Second Artillery) Mission: developing “limited” deterrent force, which could include the introduction of limited war- fighting capabilities, improved command and control and early warning systems, smaller, survivable, mobile, more accurate, and diverse cruise and ballistic missile nuclear delivery system. Force Structure: 600+SRBMs (DF9, DF11) 200+IRBMs (DF21, DF31) 50+ICBMs (DF41?) by 2010-2015 Continued in next page

  16. d. Strategic Force (Continued) Deployment: Suspected Chinese Strategic Missile Bases (derived from open sources) Note: In addition, reports also cite the following launch sites: DF-5: Jiuquan (war reserves), Wuzhai (war reserves)

  17. e. Developing Space Warfare Capability Perception: Access to Space in order to Fight and Win Future War Steps under consideration: Creation of “Space Force” (Tien Juen) Progress: developing a range of systems including ─regional GPS satellite constellation (BD satellites) ─telecommunication satellites ─maritime surveillance satellites ─early warning satellites ─early warning satellites ─high-resolution electro- optical imaging systems ─manned space operations

  18. E. Limits and Constraints 1. overall command structure and force structure are ill-suited to joint operations 2. relative lack of air and sea lift capacity 3. limited ASW and amphibious capability 4. limited IW capability 5. fragmented logistic supply systems 6. limited missile defense capability 7. possible budget constraint

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