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Sensitivity Analysis of Ozone in the Southeast

Sensitivity Analysis of Ozone in the Southeast. Daniel Cohan, Yongtao Hu, Amir Hakami, and Ted Russell Models-3 Users’ Workshop October 27, 2003. Fall-Line Air Quality Study. CMAQ-DDM-3D, v.4.3: Chemistry: SAPRC-99 Diffusion: Eddy diffusivity, with modified K zz limits

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Sensitivity Analysis of Ozone in the Southeast

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  1. Sensitivity Analysis of Ozone in the Southeast Daniel Cohan, Yongtao Hu, Amir Hakami, and Ted Russell Models-3 Users’ Workshop October 27, 2003

  2. Fall-Line Air Quality Study • CMAQ-DDM-3D, v.4.3: • Chemistry: SAPRC-99 • Diffusion: Eddy diffusivity, with modified Kzz limits • DDM-3D: 1st and 2nd order; gas-phase only • Emissions (SMOKE): • NET-99 projected to 2000 • BEIS-3 biogenics • CEM for point sources • Enhanced inventory for GA • Meteorology (MM5 v.3.5.3): • August 11-20, 2000 • OSU/Eta LSM, MRF PBL 36-km resolution 12-km resolution

  3. DDM andBrute Force Conc. (e.g., O3) ∆Ci a1 Sens. Parameter (e.g., VOC Emissions) Dpj

  4. Decoupled Direct Method 3D Concentrations (t) Concentrations (t+Δt) Chemistry Advection & Diffusion I.C., B.C., Emissions Chemistry Sensitivities (t) Sensitivities (t+Δt)

  5. DDM Statistical Agreement: r2 of DDM vs. Brute Force (+/- 10% NOx)

  6. Peak Hour Ozone and its Sensitivities (sens. scaled to 100%E) Sens to NOx Ozone Concentrations Sens To VOC 2nd Ord. Sens to NOx 5pm EDT, Aug. 17, 2000 (max. observed = 173 ppb)

  7. Downtown Atlanta: Ozone & its sensitivities, Aug. 11-20, 2000

  8. Macon: Ozone & its sensitivities, Aug. 11-20, 2000

  9. Variability of Ozone Sensitivity to NOx (Hourly Average +/- 1, in ppmv, Aug. 13-20, 2000)

  10. Ozone Sensitivity to NOx:Domainwide v. Local Emissions Zero line

  11. Taylor-Series Expansion: Decomposing Changes in Ozone Ozone A O3,A 1st-Order: E * S1 2nd-Order: 0.5(E)2 * S2 O3,B B EB Emissions EA

  12. Error: DDM 1st Order only Reduction in Ozone due to 50% Reduction in NOx & VOC Ozonebase – Ozone50%emis … with 2nd order 5pm EDT, Aug. 17, 2000

  13. Ozone Reduction for 50% Reduction in NOx and VOC 8-day average: Aug. 13-20, 2000

  14. Ozone Isopleths at Peak Hour Atlanta Macon Ozone (ppmV) August 17, 2000 (from the method of Hakami et al., 2003)

  15. Conclusions • CMAQ-DDM-3D accurately computes 1st and 2nd order gas-phase sensitivities. • Aerosol sensitivities in progress. • Include DDM-3D in future releases of CMAQ? • Ozone primarily NOx-limited during episode. • VOC sensitivity confined to urban cores. • Response to local and regional NOx emissions can differ. • Non-linearities affect ozone response to large perturbations in emissions. • Using linear term alone underestimates benefit of large NOx reductions. • Ignoring cross sensitivities overestimates benefit of joint NOX-VOC reductions in cities. • Ongoing work: • Further explore sensitivity to point & local emissions. • Economic optimization of control strategies.

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