Can nonprofits bank on bits? Forecasting and personal digital payments

1. Can nonprofits bank on bits?Forecasting and personal digital payments Michael Goldgold@sri.com This version revised 25 July 2002

2. Diamond cutting:The opportunity discovery process • SRIC-BI capabilities: • Scanning • Corporate radar • Market assessment • Technology roadmapping • Technology commercialization • Technology management • Opportunity identification • Scenarios • Psychographics (VALS) • Our Digital Futures service makesuse of SRIC-BI’s capabilitiesto explore opportunities andtrends for industries that sellcontent, networks, and devices. Often, we also conduct fine-focusmarket development projectsfor single clients worldwide. Range of possibilities Time

3. Let’s talk about the future …but they underestimate long-term developments. Popular technology visions often overestimate near-term prospects... Impact of technology Time Source: SRI Consulting Business Intelligence Acknowledgements to Ray Amara

4. Organizational intelligence:Managing the watch list Research,early standards,and sluggish trials Long shots, wild cards,hype, dreams, and sure bets inmore than 10 years Ongoing developments 4th generation wireless Agents Augmented reality/mixed reality Community power generation Digital rights management Distance health care E-books E-cinema Home gatewaysHome servers Location-based mobile services Natural language interfaces Optical switching Reconfigurable computers Session Initiation Protocol Software-defined radios/cell phones “Trojan horse” game consoles Vehicle telematics Virtual/immersive environments 3rd generation wireless Biometrics Bluetooth Digital asset management E-learning Hard disk video recorders Home networks Peer-to-peer technologies Personal digital payments Speech recognition Streaming Targeted TV Wearable computing Wireless LANs eXtended Markup Language 5th generation wirelessAvatars Body dynamics detectors Household power generation Connected cars Music recognition Personal drones (air and ground) “Pervasive computing” Residential energy management Robots (productive) in everyday life

5. Reducing uncertainty:Make or buy business intelligence? • In-house workflow: • • Lack money, don’t lack time • • Unique interests • • Organization culture of learning, growing and changing • Buying consulting services and reports: • • Have money, don’t have time • • Interests in common with other organizations • • Mission demands stable organizational culture • Collaborative model: • • Have some money and time • • Have some unique and some common interests

6. Why I suggest NTEN attendees think about personal digital payment systems • • Donations hot topic now: Up in some sectors, down in others • • Technology may help facilitate donations • • Developments in the public eye • —Bubble bursting on micropayment startups • —Mobile phones: Prepaid, removable cards, dual slots… • —Controversy about Microsoft’s Passport • —Rise of RFIDs in tollbooth passes and fuel station tokens • —ACH simplifying e-checks, phone authorization • —Synergy with call center speech recognition

7. What happened to Digicash and such? • • The hall of shame: Digicash, Cybercash, Millicent, Beenz, Flooz... • • It’s all too expensive • • Trust models didn’t work? • • Bubble-era egos • • Don’t conclude that “people won’t pay for content”. Bzzt. • —Tell it to the DVD and the pay-per-view businesses • —Maybe greed backfired, is all

8. Passport and similar schemes:Threat or opportunity? • • Probably, neither • • 3 initiatives: Microsoft Passport, AOL Magic Carpet, Liberty Alliance • • Will any of them guarantee payment to you? • • Little real benefit to the donor/e-commerce purchaser • • Visa and Mastercard carry more clout and have their own initiatives • • Study these now: Verified by Visa and MC’s schemes • • Something may replace those, as those replaced the failed SET

9. Using the Automated Clearing Houseand institutional solutions • • Consider call center solutions (and speech recognition synergy) • • Traditional means of regular debits for donations • • New authorizations by phone: Millions of transactions in a year • • Guaranteed payment and lower transaction costs than bank cards • • E-checks in trials: Do they protect banks/merchants/nonprofits? • • Are people willing to disclose account numbers by email or phone? • • Bankers’ standards committee FSTC is where the action is • —Voice biometrics, proximity commerce, mobile payments...

10. Outlook for mobile payment systems • • Mobile phone companies looking for next killer application • • Prepaid accounts up, some funded w/phone-authorized transfers • • Bluetooth cash registers: Career opportunities for criminals • • IR beaming to cash registers: IRDA standards/prototypes now • • 2nd card slot in mobile phones in France • • Paypal (email) and paybox.net (voice, SMS, html) just make sense

11. Millions carry RFID tags for payment • • Some 5 million U.S. drivers use ExxonMobil’s Speedpass • • Shell’s EasyPay, Philips’ Philpass, Verifone’s Veripass: Fewer users • • McDonald’s trialing Speedpass • • McDonald’s also trialing tollbooth tokens FasTrak and E-Zpass • • Vending machine operators trialing RFIDs • • Nokia trialing RFIDs bujilt into cell phone fashion faceplates • • Will canvassers accept impulse street donations by 2008?

12. Thank you • • The future’s uncertain • • Everything on the Internet is wrong until proven otherwise • • Everyone’s invited to the future, and nobody gets to stay home • • Find middle ground between complacency & being strategic irritant • • Questions?