L  CUS Lewis Carroll meets Franz Kafka Parliamentary Boundary Review: Cheshire

1. LCUSLewis Carroll meets Franz KafkaParliamentary Boundary Review: Cheshire Mollington, 14 October 2011 Adrian Bailey UKelect.wordpress.com

2. The Commission’s proposals

4. Labour’s version

5. Labour’s glennmanders Wirral Runcorn Northwich Chester

6. Why are people issuing proposals that make them look stupid? • “The Commission use district wards as the smallest unit for designing constituencies and do not divide wards between constituencies.” (Guide to the 5th General Review) • The 5% law

7. The Law versus The Rule • minimum 72,810, maximum 80,473 • Once ward size reaches 8,000, redistricting is impossible: • 9 x 8,000 = 72,000, 10 x 8,000 = 80,000 • 8 x 9,000 = 72,000, 9 x 9,000 = 81,000 • 7 x 10,000 = … • “You do the math.”

8. 51 “2010” wards

9. The Cheshire conundrum • 52 wards (including Heswall or Eastham) • average size 10,500 • 4 seats at 73,500 • 3 seats at 84,000

10. Chunking versus Tacking “So far as is practicable no county or any part of a county shall be included in a constituency which includes the whole or part of any other county.” Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986

11. 2006 • Wallasey 66,845 • Birkenhead 66,452 • Wirral West 56,085 • Wirral South 57,801

12. “The BCE seeks to avoid dividing wards between constituencies wherever possible.” • “The BCE’s view is that, in the absence of exceptional and compelling circumstances it would not be appropriate to divide wards in cases where it is possible to construct constituencies that meet the statutory electorate range without dividing them.” Guide to the Sixth Review

13. The Choice • The Commission’s and the Parties’ convenience or • Sensible constituencies that respect boundaries and maintain local ties

14. From the ridiculous to the extreme…

15. My proposal (1)

16. (Back to the 90’s)

17. split wards Alderley: Alderley Edge > Macc Fulshaw > Tatton Doddington: Haslington > Congleton Cholmondeley: Acton & Audlem > C&N Mickle Trafford: Elton > Ellesmere Port

18. 163 “2004” wards

19. My proposal (1)

20. It’s not rocket science Macc 78,204 Tatton 78,054 Congleton 78,384 Crewe 78,710 Chester 77,987 Eddisbury 78,198 Ellesmere Port 77,913

21. And for my next trick… • A proposal using the permanent “2011” wards

22. My proposal (2)

23. The boundary paradox The law says that if you use boundaries you have to use the 2010 boundaries, but the law doesn’t say you have to use those boundaries.

24. What was that again? • “Any division of wards between constituencies would be likely to break local ties, disrupt political party organisations, and cause difficulties for Electoral Registration and Returning Officers.” Guide to the Sixth Review

25. 98 “2011” wards

26. Seats based on new wards • Macc 78,424 • Tatton 79,015 • Congleton 77,869 • Crewe & Nantwich 77,589 • Eddisbury 79,363 • Chester 79,447 • Ellesmere Port 77,508

27. My proposal (2) no split wards

28. I know you’re wondering… • What about Poynton? Halton?

29. Good old chunking:electorate ÷ 76641 • Cheshire+Wirral 10.12 • Warrington 2.00 • Liverpool 4.12 • Sefton+Knowsley 4.14 • St Helens+Halton 3.01 • Stockport+Tameside 5.04 • Oldham 2.09 • Rochdale 2.05 • Manchester+Salford+Trafford 8.81

30. My plan for the North West

31. Conclusion • Let’s get the balance right • Give people the right tools to do the job.

32. LCUSAdrian Baileyukelect.wordpress.com

33. Dedicated to The Boundary Commissioners • Philip Sales – chancery judge • David Elvin – planning lawyer • Neil Pringle – former chief executive of Herefordshire Council