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CSPP. www.abdn.ac.uk/cspp. 1. A BOTTOM UP RESPONSE TO A TOP DOWN CRISIS: A Pan European Perspective PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE Centre for the Study of Public Policy University of Aberdeen www.abdn.ac.uk/cspp The International Crisis and Post-Communist States University of Glasgow

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CSPP

www.abdn.ac.uk/cspp

1.

A BOTTOM UP RESPONSE

TO A TOP DOWN CRISIS:

A Pan European Perspective

PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE

Centre for the Study of Public Policy

University of Aberdeen

www.abdn.ac.uk/cspp

The International Crisis and Post-Communist States

University of Glasgow

13-14 May 2010

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2. WHERE IS THE CRISIS?

Top down macro-economic or bottom-up household?

Vulnerable countries

An international stimulus: all countries equally affected

Macro-economic: a crisis of banks, ministries of finance

But vulnerability differs: CEE 10/ Northern 11/Med 6

Vulnerable people

Micro-level: poor people, indebted people.

All countries have some vulnerable and some secure people but proportions differ.


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3. VULNERABILITY DIFFERS WITH ECONOMIC STATUS

Source: Eurobarometer 72.1, 27 EU countries, fieldwork Aug-Sept 2009, unweighted N=26,719


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4. VULNERABILITY DIFFERS BETWEEN COUNTRIES

Sources: Access to credit: Eurobarometer 72.1, D46, 27 EU countries, fieldwork August-September 2009, unweighted N=27,719. Official economic statistics: Eurostat, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/ search_database (accessed 1 April 2010).GDP: nominal Gross Domestic Product per capita in Euro per inhabitant; contraction: growth rate of real GDP per capita; inflation: annual average inflation rate. Averages for groups of countries weight each country equally.


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5. VULNERABLE COUNTRIES AND VULNERABLE PEOPLE

HYPOTHESES

H 1. If people are low in socio-economic resources, they are worse off.

H 2. If people are vulnerable, they are worse off.

H 3. If people live in poor countries, they are worse off.

H 4. If people live in vulnerable countries, they are worse off.


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6. THE WOUNDED AND THE COPING

The Dependent Variable

Q 37. Which of the following best describes how your household is keeping up with all its bills and credit commitments at the moment?

North Med. CEE Difference

North-CEE

(% respondents)

No difficulty 58 25 33 25

Okay but problems 30 38 38 -8

from time to time

Keeping up a 9 30 21 -12

constant struggle

Keeping up (97) (93) (92) (5)

Falling behind with 2 5 6 -4

some bills

Real problems, be- 1 2 3 -2

hind with many bills

Falling behind (3) (7) (9) (-6)

Source: Eurobarometer 72.1, Q37, 27 EU countries, fieldwork August-September 2009, unweighted N=26,719. Don’t knows excluded.


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  • THE EFFECT OF LOW RESOURCES, VULNERABILITY Dependent variable: Q # Difficulty paying bills R2=27.4%

(*** significant at .001, ** .01, * .05 level)

Source: Eurobarometer 72.1, Q37, 27 EU countries, fieldwork August-September 2009, unweighted N=26,719.


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8. DIFFICULTIES IN CONTEXT Hierarchical Linear Model: pseudo R2=29.7%

Coeff. Error T-ratio

#GDP change 2008/9 0.01 0.02 0.82

# see semail % with mortgages -1.11 0.28 -4.00***

Social status -0.22 0.01 -19.08***

Education -0.06 0.01 -4.87***

Age -0.002 0.00 -3.80***

Male -0.06 0.01 -4.17***

Urbanization 0.01 0.01 1.32

Unemployed 0.36 0.03 12.17***

Pensioner -0.15 0.02 -7.55***

Credit card access -0.17 0.01 -13.63***

(*** significant at .001, ** .01, * .05 level)

Sources: Eurobarometer 72.1, Q#fieldwork August-September 2009, 27 EU countries, unweighted N=26,719. #amend/ delete as appropriate. GDP change 2008/9: Eurostat, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/ page/portal/statistics/ search_database, (accessed 1 April 2010)


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9. IS RUSSIA DIFFERENT COMPARED TO CEE COUNTRIES?

CEE Russia

mean

Keeping up difficult 9% 25%

GDP change 2008/9 -8.1% -7.9%

Has mortgage 13% 1%

Can get credit card, bank 35% 40%

loan

Sources: Eurobarometer 72.1, Q37, fieldwork August-September 2009, 10 CEE countries, unweighted N=10,144; New Russia Barometer XVIII, A6, fieldwork 18-24 June 2009, unweighted N=1,601.GDP change 2008/9: Eurostat, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/ portal/page/portal/statistics/ search_database (accessed 1 April 2010); for Russia: World Bank, Russian Economic Report No. 21 (March 2010), p.5.


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10. COMPARING INFLUENCES ON HOUSEHOLD DIFFICULTIES Ordinary least squares regressions

(*** significant at .001, ** .01, * .05 level)

Source: Eurobarometer 72.1, Q37, fieldwork Aug-Sept 2009, 10 CEE countries only, unweighted N=10,144. New Russia Barometer XVIII, A6, fieldwork 18-24 June 2009, unweighted N=1,601.


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11. HOW MUCH CHANGE IN RUSSIA SINCE BEFORE THE CRISIS ?

Q. Do you get enough money from your main source of income to buy what you really need?

2007 2009 Difference

(% respondents)

Definitely enough 5 5 0

Just enough 20 20 0

Not quite enough 49 50 1

Definitely not enough 26 25 -1

Sources: New Russia Barometer XV, A6, fieldwork 13-23 April 2007, unweighted N=1,606; New Russia Barometer XVIII, A6, fieldwork 18-24 June 2009, unweighted N=1,601. Don’t knows excluded.

♦For a discussion of political effects, see R. Rose and W. Mishler, "The Impact of Macro-Economic Shock on Russians", Post-Soviet Affairs, 26, 1.


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12. VARIABLE LISTS

AGGREGATE-LEVEL (EU27)

GDP change 2008/9, % -17.60 1.70 -5.89 4.06

% with mortgages 3 58 28 16

Sources: Eurobarometer 72.1, fieldwork Aug-Sept 2009, 27 EU countries, unweighted N=26,719. New Russia Barometer XVIII, fieldwork 18-24 June 2009, unweighted N=1,601; GDP change 2008/9: Eurostat, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/ statistics/ search_database (accessed 1 April 2010).


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