THE RED INVASION
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THE RED INVASION. Pavin Chachavalpongpun Fellow, ISEAS. The Emergence of the RED. Why RED? Versus Yellow – People’s Alliance for Democracy Red = Rebellious Red = Colour of the Communists? Born in 2006 Opposing military coup As a substitute for the old regime?.

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THE RED INVASION

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The red invasion

THE RED INVASION

Pavin Chachavalpongpun

Fellow, ISEAS


The emergence of the red

The Emergence of the RED

  • Why RED?

  • Versus Yellow – People’s Alliance for Democracy

  • Red = Rebellious

  • Red = Colour of the Communists?

  • Born in 2006

  • Opposing military coup

  • As a substitute for the old regime?


Development of the red network

Development of the Red Network

  • Backed by rural masses

  • Backed by the opposition party: Puea Thai

  • Pro-Thaksin agenda?

  • Creating a modern institution

  • Provider of legitimacy to Thai political system

  • Weaken the power of the ruling elites


Means and methods

Means and Methods

  • Relying on street protests

  • Working with political parties

  • Operating on behalf of the grassroots


The may crisis

The May Crisis

  • The Thaksin Court Case of February 2010

  • Protests began in March

  • 10 April First Clash

  • PM Abhisit offered early election, rejected

  • Khattiya Sawasdipol assassinated 13 May

  • Crackdown 19 May

  • City burned


Objectives

Objectives

  • Adopting a pro-democracy ideology

  • Denouncing the military intervention

  • Calling for election and Abhisit’s resignation

  • Calling for constitution amendment

  • Creating the ungovernability situation

  • Pattaya Saga

  • May 19, 2010


Leadership

Leadership

  • Moderate voices

  • Radical voices

  • Second generation

  • Smaller cells in the provinces

  • Lower and middle classes in the rural areas


Funding

Funding

  • Thaksin?

  • Donation

  • Rich urbanites

  • Rich military men?


Obstacles

Obstacles

  • Dealing with anti-monarchy sentiment

  • Stripping itself of Thaksinised image

  • Reconfiguring the political domain

  • Battling with the military


What s next

What’s next?

  • Radicals gone underground?

  • Accusation of a terrorist network

  • Election

  • Reconciliation, Unilateral plan

  • Is Abhisit a proxy?

  • Thaksin still fighting, war on global stage

  • Those in the rural areas still have resentment

  • Extension of emergency rule

  • End of Thai conflict?


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