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COPC Environmental Modeling CONOPS Spring COPC 2007. Mr Mike Clancy, Mr Mike Howland, Dr John Harding, CDR Mark Moran. Table of Contents.

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Copc environmental modeling conops spring copc 2007

COPC Environmental Modeling CONOPSSpring COPC 2007

Mr Mike Clancy, Mr Mike Howland, Dr John Harding, CDR Mark Moran


Table of contents

Table of Contents

  • Purpose:To establish and document COPC partners’ roles, procedures, and methods employed in mutual collaboration for execution, enhancement, data sharing from, and backup of NOAA and DoD operational environmental models.

  • Executive Summary:

  • Introduction:

    • Background

    • Guiding Principles

    • Information Assurance

    • Challenges

    • Advantages of Collaboration

    • Relationship of this CONOPS to NUOPC


Table of contents1

Table of Contents

  • OPC Modeling Responsibilities and Capabilities

    • Modeling Responsibilities

    • Current Capability Overview

  • Collaborative Modeling Capability

    • Modeling missions/capabilities targeted for collaborationor leveraged

    • Ensemble Modeling

    • Operations

    • Global Modeling

    • Limited Area Modeling

    • Space Modeling

    • Operations Coordination Process

    • Catastrophic Backup


Table of contents2

Table of Contents

  • Infrastructure

  • R&D Transition

  • Performance Metrics

  • Business Practices


Executive summary

Executive Summary

  • Atmospheric Modeling

    • Keep near term focus on NAEFS and JEFS projects

      • Need proof of concept/methods to support ensemble production

      • Global ensemble first production target; path to NUOPC

    • Limited Area Modeling

      • Clarify center responsibilities; minimize duplication

      • Establish DoD Continuity of Operations (COOP) Agreement

      • Establish migration path for shared ensemble production

    • Formalize DoD/NOAA production dependency agreements

  • Ocean Modeling

    • Share Navy Global Ocean Fields as boundary conditions and backup for NCEP regional circulation models

    • Continue public sharing of Navy global ocean fields via NOAA NESDIS National Coastal Data Development Center (NCDDC)

    • Explore use of ensemble methods for ocean wave modeling


Executive summary continued

Executive Summary (Continued)

  • Other Modeling

    • NAVO continues Arctic sea ice forecast data delivery to National Ice Center

    • AFWA continues cloud and snow analysis data delivery to Navy/NOAA

  • Space Modeling

    • Focus on transition to physics based space models

    • Improve NCEP/AFWA collaboration on space environment sensing and shared assimilation

    • Formalize national space environment COOP capability

  • R&D

    • Seek common modeling infrastructure to ease R&D reuse

    • Establish R&D coordination process to reduce duplication of effort

    • Near term DoD collaboration on aerosols/dust transport

    • Establish virtual DoD Development Test Center (DTC) and define relationship to NCEP DTC

    • Continue Navy/NCEP ocean collaboration on HYCOM and ESMF


Executive summary continued1

Executive Summary (Continued)

  • Data Exchange and Communications

    • Standardize data exchange parameters, formats, & grids

    • Determine best method for ensemble data exchange

    • Scope communication bandwidth needs/costs

  • Management Processes

    • Establish shared operational modeling metrics process and tracking/reporting practices including atmospheric parameters relevant to ocean models

    • Establish defined process for operational run coordination

    • Establish and exercise COOP process

    • Establish agreement on practices and shared ground rules to meet Information Assurance demands


Copc environmental modeling conops spring copc 2007

Introduction


Guiding principles

Guiding Principles

  • CONOPS must help, not hinder, each Agency’s ability to support its customer base.

  • The Agencies will identify and coordinate needed additions to ESMF to establish a common modeling software framework

    • Must support the full range of models we collectively run

    • Transition to full use will be long term effort

  • A common modeling framework will facilitate:

    • Coordinated and shared R&D

    • Operational collaboration

    • Managed diversity of ensemble suites

    • Interoperability and backup


Guiding principles1

Guiding Principles

  • Through coordinated and shared R&D, Agencies will minimize redundant research, and team up to address problems jointly agreed to as highest priority.

  • Through operational collaboration, each Agency will leverage the modeling capabilities of the others:

    • Coordination of limited-area model windows

    • Contribution of members to unified ensemble suites

    • Reliance on another Center’s modeling capabilities to meet a particular requirement


Guiding principles2

Guiding Principles

  • Through managed diversity of ensemble suites, each Agency will:

    • Recognize and support the growing National focus on ensemble-based prediction

    • Contribute members and value to multi-model ensembles

  • Through interoperability and backup, each Agency will:

    • Contribute to an enhanced capability to deliver meteorological and oceanographic prediction support to the nation

    • Sustain national capability even in the event of catastrophic outage at one of the four Centers


Collaboration advantages

Collaboration Advantages

  • Accelerated improvement in national ability to characterize the natural environment

  • Acceleration of ability to provide stochastic forecasting

  • Reduced cost per capability for environmental modeling

  • Reduced duplication of effort

  • Reduction in both R&D transition time and cost of transition

  • Enhanced ability to exchange and reuse developed software

  • Ability to surge beyond any single center capability

  • Improvement in national continuity of operations

  • Payback by: More effective military operations, improved resource and human life protection, improved commerce, enhanced national aviation and surface transportation system effectiveness


Challenges

Challenges

  • DoD Information Assurance restrictions on data/software exchange

  • Ongoing tightening of DoD IA constraints on network connectivity

  • Differing:

    • Customer bases and requirements

    • Production run schedules

    • Data distribution methods and architectures

    • Modeling infrastructures

    • Model verification methods and metrics

    • Software Configuration Management (CM) processes

    • Software coding standards

    • R&D transition and model governance processes

    • Financial planning, programming, budgeting and execution systems

    • Cultures


Information assurance

Information Assurance

  • Information Assurance (IA) is defined as: Measures that protect and defend information and information systems by ensuring their availability, integrity, authentication, confidentiality and non-repudiation.

  • IA is a priority concern to DoD and increasing concern to NOAA; the frequency and sophistication of attacks on U.S./Defense Information Systems continues to increase

  • IA constraints and requirements differ markedly between DoD and NOAA, and even between Navy and Air Force

  • IA issues will present a significant challenge to the stand-up and sustainment of this CONOPS as well as for NUOPC follow-on collaborative activities


Information assurance1

Information Assurance

  • Areas of particular concern are:

    • Network security

    • Use of software developed/modified by uncleared foreign nationals in mission-critical systems

    • Release of operational NWP software to a wide community, including potential adversary nations

  • The biggest issue initially will be Network Security:

    • Each Center must accommodate the Network Security requirements of the others sufficiently to allow data exchange

    • For example, this may include use of:

      • Public Key Infrastructure (PKI) technology

      • Mandated closure of certain network communications ports,

      • Exclusion of certain common communications protocols


Key assumptions

Key Assumptions

  • Agreements generated by this CONOPS for specific inter-agency and inter-service capability dependencies and partnerships will be documented by MOA and fully coordinated with DOC, USAF, USN, Joint Staff, and OSD

  • COPC centers will find mutually acceptable common ground for IA practices necessary for collaboration


Conops relationship to nuopc

CONOPS Relationship to NUOPC

  • COPC CONOPS focus is near term (1-3 years)

  • Emphasis on near term operational effectiveness gains

  • COPC CONOPS broader - not limited to Global NWP focus

  • Near term COPC efforts closely coordinated with NUOPC

  • Longer term efforts deferred to NUOPC and beyond

  • NUOPC effort will eventually broaden beyond Global NWP

  • Provides living CONOPS

    • Flexible - reshaped as necessary

    • Transition path to NUOPC

    • Provides CONOPS framework to expand NUOPC scope to broad range of national environmental modeling


Copc environmental modeling conops spring copc 2007

OPC Modeling Responsibilities and Capabilities

Note: Content of this section moved to backup slides for 2 May briefing to COPC


Copc environmental modeling conops spring copc 2007

Collaborative Modeling Capability


Modeling missions capabilities targeted for collaboration or leveraged

Modeling Missions/Capabilities Targeted for Collaboration or Leveraged

  • Global NWP Models

    • NCEP provides to AFWA for limited-area model support (pre national ensemble production)

    • FNMOC provides to NCEP for unified ensemble (production of a national ensemble global NWP capability)

    • AFWA, FNMOC, & NAVO use NCEP unified global ensemble

    • FNMOC provides to NCEP and AFWA as backup

    • NCEP provides to FNMOC as backup

  • Other Global Models

    • FNMOC and NCEP use AFWA Snow Depth Model

    • FNMOC uses AFWA Cloud Analysis

    • AFWA uses FNMOC/NAVO SST


Modeling missions capabilities targeted for collaboration or leveraged1

Modeling Missions/Capabilities Targeted for Collaboration or Leveraged

  • Global Ocean Circulation Modeling

    • NAVO/FNMOC provides to NCEP for regional ocean model boundary conditions

    • NAVO/FNMOC provides to NCEP as backup for regional models

      (NOTE: NCEP planning to implement global model by FY10)

    • NAVO/FNMOC share global ocean fields via NOAA NESDIS National Coastal Data Development Center

  • Global Ocean Wave Prediction

    • NCEP provides to FNMOC for unified ensemble

    • FNMOC unified ensemble provided to NCEP and NAVO

    • FNMOC provides to NAVO for limited-area model support

    • FNMOC provides to NCEP as backup

    • NCEP provides to FNMOC as backup


Modeling missions capabilities targeted for collaboration or leveraged2

Modeling Missions/Capabilities Targeted for Collaboration or Leveraged

  • Limited Area NWP Models

    • DoD reliance on NCEP for CONUS and N. A. theater

    • Production of 3-4 DoD theater-scale mesoscale ensembles

    • AFWA and FNMOC provide all classified limited area NWP

    • Agreed DoD lead responsibilities for designated nested theater hi-res NWP; full coordination for non-designated

    • Tropical Storm mesoscale: Shared NCEP/Navy mission

    • NCEP reliance on DoD for OCONUS windows(within resource availability; cannot significantly conflict with DoD operational mission)

    • FNMOC provides to AFWA at TS/SCI classification level

    • FNMOC provides to NAVO to drive limited-area ocean models


Example limited area modeling dod collaboration

AFWA WRF5km in Blue

FNMOC COAMPS6km in Red

5km

5km

6km

Example Limited Area Modeling DoD Collaboration

Shared contribution to theater ensemble; deconflicted AF/Navy inner nests


Modeling missions capabilities targeted for collaboration or leveraged3

Modeling Missions/Capabilities Targeted for Collaboration or Leveraged

  • Space Models

    • AFWA/NCEP collaborate on space sensing & assimilation

    • NCEP uses AFWA GAIM and HAF

  • Other Models

    • Land Information System (LIS)

      • AFWA/NCEP/NASA collaborative project

      • Couples to Global or Mesoscale NWP

    • Global and Limited Area Aerosol and Dust Transport Applications/Models

      • Convergence to single embedded NWP capability/method

      • Shared algorithms and assimilation methods

      • Merge/reuse or eliminate duplication of FNMOC aerosol capability with AFWA Dust Transport Application

  • Seek common global/limited-area models/infrastructure


Copc environmental modeling conops spring copc 2007

Migration to Ensemble Modeling


Ensemble modeling

Ensemble Modeling

  • Two near term projects are critical pathfinders for OPC operational migration to global and limited area NWP ensembles

    • DoD led Joint Ensemble Forecast System (JEFS)

    • NWS/NCEP led North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)

  • JEFS/NAEFS are center of gravity for near-term NWP collaboration

  • Lessons learned on methods, calibration, post processed products, and data exchange are critical to shape execution detail for this CONOPS and follow-on NUOPC efforts

  • Examples of key issues we must address via JEFS/NAEFS:

    • Common methods for calibration and post processing

    • What ensemble members/roll-up results are basis for data exchange?

    • How much value is added for cost to run ensembles for hi-res nests?

    • Can downscaling at higher resolution nests be more cost effective?

    • What are minimum shared ensemble end-result products?


Copc environmental modeling conops spring copc 2007

DoD Ensemble Modeling Pathfinder - JEFS

GOAL: Prove the value, utility, and operational feasibility of EF to DoD operations.

FOCUS: How to best exploit EF output within forecasting and decision processes.

Joint Global Ensemble (JGE)

58/40 members, 1 1, 7 day, 2 cycle/day

 FNMOC Medium Range Ensemble

18 NOGAPS runs (T119, 1 cycle/day)

 NCEP Medium Range Ensemble

20 GFS runs (T126, 4 cycles/day)

  • Joint Mesoscale Ensemble (JME)

  • 20 members, 15/5km, 60 hr, 2 cycles/day

  • JGE supports init./lat. boundary conditions

  • Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter I.C.s

  • Multimodel (WRF-ARW, COAMPS)

  • Varied model physics configurations

  • Perturbed surface boundary conditions

5km

× 58

× 20

 Products: Tailored to operational weather

sensitivities of the warfighter

Products: Tailored to support the

warfighter planning processes


North american ensemble forecast system naefs

North American Ensemble Forecast System(NAEFS)

  • Combines global ensemble forecasts from Canada & USA

    • Now:CAN 40/day out to 16 days, US – 56/day out to 16 days

    • ’07 – CAN 40/day out to 16 days, US – 80/day out to 16 days

  • Generates products for

    • Intermediate users: NCEP, WFOs, academia, media, private sector

    • Specialized users: hydrologic applications

    • End users: public forecasts for US, Canada and Mexico

    • 7 Domains (Global, NH, NA, CONUS, SA, Caribbean, Africa)

  • Future activities

    • Adding products (probabilistic in nature)

    • Unified evaluation/verification procedures

    • Incorporating ensemble data from other centers (e.g., FNMOC)

      • Preliminary evaluation by Dec 07

      • Operational implementation by Dec 08 (subject to improved performance)


Copc environmental modeling conops spring copc 2007

Operations

Note: Content of this section moved to backup slides for 2 May briefing to COPC


Copc environmental modeling conops spring copc 2007

Model Performance Metrics


Model performance metrics

Model Performance Metrics

  • Model metrics shall be tracked to ensure collaborative/leveraged modeling and R&D insertion meets key agency performance needs

  • Should be based on shared uniform measures of model quality

    • Design model skill metrics based upon user missions, e.g., AFWA’s Generalized Operational (GO) index was based upon AF and Army mission need parameters.

Weighting Scheme


Model performance metrics1

Model Performance Metrics

  • Candidate general categories for indexes

    • Military Operations

      • Fixed wing aviation

      • Rotary wing aviation

      • Fleet operations

      • Ground operations

      • Littoral operations

      • Resource Protection

    • Commerce

      • Commercial aviation

      • Commercial shipping

      • Public Safety

      • Ground transportation

      • Agriculture


Model performance metrics2

Model Performance Metrics

  • Comparisons require common post-processing algorithms for derived parameters to avoid biasing

    • Need to isolate performance of base model output from performance of post processing algorithms

    • Similar approach could be used to assess and identify the “best” post-processor algorithms

  • To the extent possible, collaborative decisions about which model(s) will be used to support categories of user mission will be based on these objective measures of skill


Copc environmental modeling conops spring copc 2007

Infrastructure


Information assurance2

Information Assurance

  • The Agencies shall establish a Joint Information Assurance Team, with representation from each Center, to:

    • Share information on IA requirements and constraints

    • Seek mutually acceptable IA policies and technical solutions that will allow continued exchange of data and software between the Centers

  • The Centers shall implement the IA policies and technical solutions identified and agreed to by the Joint IA Team.


Modeling framework

Modeling Framework

  • The Agencies shall adopt and build upon the Earth Systems Modeling Framework (ESMF) as the common framework for all model implementations at the Centers

  • The Agencies shall form a team to identify required enhancements to ESMF needed to support and easily reuse model components (assimilation schemes, physics packages, post processing, etc.)

  • The Agency team shall come to consensus agreement on how ESMF (with enhancements) will be applied at the Centers:

    • Superstructure

    • Infrastructure

    • Level to which ESMF will be applied in the model codes


Modeling framework cont

Modeling Framework(Cont’)

  • The Agencies shall actively engage the ESMF development community to ensure that:

    • Necessary enhancements to ESMF are developed

    • Operational requirements and priorities are met

    • Information Assurance concerns are addressed

  • The Centers shall phase in the use of ESMF with new model implementations and upgrades


Software

Software

  • The Agencies shall form a Joint Software Standards Team, with representation from each of the Centers, to:

    • Share information on software coding and documentation

    • Seek a mutually acceptable set of software coding and documentation standards that will facilitate sharing of software among the Centers

  • The Centers and the supporting R&D community shall phase in the software coding and documentation standards identified by the Joint Software Standards Team with new model implementations and upgrades


Hardware

Hardware

  • Hardware should support open computing standards with minimum degree of vendor extensions to support HPC requirements

  • The Agencies will coordinate major hardware buys and consider opportunities for shared purchase when feasible as means for cost reduction

  • Each center shall keep other OPC partners informed of planned significant changes in hardware architecture


Copc environmental modeling conops spring copc 2007

R&D Transition

Note: Content of this section moved to backup slides for 2 May briefing to COPC


Copc environmental modeling conops spring copc 2007

Summary


Summary

Summary

  • Atmospheric Modeling

    • Keep near term focus on NAEFS and JEFS projects

    • Clarify and define center roles for national capability and backup

    • Global ensemble first production target; path to NUOPC

    • Establish DoD/NOAA Continuity of Operations (COOP) agreements

    • Establish migration path for shared ensemble production

  • Ocean Modeling

    • Share Navy Global Ocean Fields as boundary conditions and backup for NCEP regional circulation models

    • Continue sharing of Navy global ocean fields via NESDIS NCDDC

    • Explore use of ensemble methods for ocean wave modeling

  • Space Modeling

    • Focus on transition to physics based space models

    • Improve NCEP/AFWA collaboration on space environment sensing and shared assimilation and mutual COOP


Summary1

Summary

  • Other Modeling

    • NAVO continues Arctic sea ice forecast data delivery to National Ice Center

    • AFWA continues cloud and snow analysis data delivery to Navy/NOAA

  • Establish agreed mutual approach to address IA concerns

  • Establish team(s) to:

    • Define common modeling software standards

    • Define and input changes to ESMF as basis for shared common modeling infrastructure

    • Define methods, formats, grids, parameters, for data exchange

    • Scope communication bandwidth needs/costs

  • Formalize DoD/NOAA production dependency and COOP/backup agreements


Copc environmental modeling conops spring copc 2007

Discussion


Copc environmental modeling conops spring copc 2007

Backup Slides


Copc environmental modeling conops spring copc 2007

OPC Modeling Responsibilities and Capabilities


Modeling responsibilities fnmoc

Modeling Responsibilities(FNMOC)

  • Global NWP with focus on:

    • Marine environment and marine boundary layer

    • Surface winds, wind stresses and heat fluxes to drive ocean and ice models at NAVO

    • Global Tropical Cyclone (TC) track prediction

    • Ensemble products

    • Global depiction of aerosols

    • Extension into the stratosphere to support classified applications

  • TC modeling

    • High-resolution moving nest

    • Global application

    • Multiple simultaneous storms


Modeling responsibilities fnmoc navo

Modeling Responsibilities(FNMOC/NAVO)

  • Global ocean modeling with focus on:

    • Support for automated global high-winds and high-seas warnings

    • Support for safety of navigation ( e.g., automated global OTSR)

    • Support for near-shore & shallow-water wave models

    • Support for surf and coastal wave process models

    • Ensemble products

    • Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to support global NWP

    • 3D ocean sound speed structure and currents in support of Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW), Mine Warfare (MIW) and Naval Special Warfare (NSW)

    • Arctic Ice prediction in support of safety of navigation and ASW


Modeling responsibilities fnmoc navo1

Modeling Responsibilities(FNMOC/NAVO)

  • Limited-area meteorological and oceanographic modeling with focus on:

    • Integrated depiction of the sea-air-land environment in the coastal zone

    • Prediction of ocean sound speed structure and currents in support of ASW, MIW & NSW

    • Prediction of Electro-Magnetic/Electro-Optical (EM/EO) refraction and ducting conditions

    • Prediction of the transport and dispersion of hazardous materials

    • Prediction of sea-level and storm surge

    • Assimilation of classified data

    • Classified limited-area model domains

    • On-demand and rapid application/re-location


Modeling responsibilities afwa

Modeling Responsibilities(AFWA)

  • Global NWP

    • Leverage external global NWP modeling (NCEP and FNMOC)

      • Imported global NWP feeds limited area and specialized models

      • Centralized global NWP post processing applications and dissemination for AF and Army Ops

    • Lead DoD JEFS as proof of concept project for ensemble NWP

      • Determine methods and product line for migration from deterministic to ensemble based stochastic NWP forecasts and decision aid applications

      • Pathfinder for AFWA/FNMOC production ensemble NWP

  • Global Cloud Modeling

    • Hourly worldwide cloud analysis

    • Short and medium range cloud forecast models


Modeling responsibilities afwa1

Modeling Responsibilities(AFWA)

  • Limited Area Modeling

    • Theater scale and hi-resolution mesoscale NWP

      • Leverage community models (MM5 transitions to WRF)

      • Emphasis on support to Air Force and Army operations

      • Unclassified and classified modeling to Collateral Secret

      • Fixed and relocatable contingency windows

    • Diagnostic Cloud Forecast Model (post mesoscale NWP application)


Modeling responsibilities afwa2

Modeling Responsibilities(AFWA)

  • Other AFWA modeling

    • Snow Depth Analysis (SNODEP)

    • Surface Temperature Analysis (SFCTMP)

    • Geostationary Infra-Red Precipitation (GEOPRECIP)

    • Agriculture Meteorology (AGRMET - global land data assimilation system)

    • Transition project to single collaboratively developed Land Information System (LIS) model

    • Dust Transport Application (DTA)


Modeling responsibilities afwa3

Modeling Responsibilities(AFWA)

  • Space Environment Modeling:

    • Ionosphere (specification and forecast)

      • Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM)

      • Scintillation Scale Models (WBMOD & SCINDA)

      • Auroral Oval Model

    • Magnetosphere (specification and forecast)

      • Magnetospheric Specification and Forecast Model (MSFM)

      • Relativistic Electron Prediction (REP)

      • Radiation Belt Environment (RBE)

    • Solar Wind (specification and forecast)

      • Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) Solar Wind Model


Modeling responsibilities ncep

Modeling Responsibilities(NCEP)

  • Global NWP with a focus on:

    • Global Forecast to 15 days

    • Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction

    • Winter Storm Prediction

    • Oceanic Weather

    • Ensemble Products

    • Extension to stratosphere

  • Tropical Cyclone and Hurricane in North Atlantic and North East and Central Pacific Oceans to 180 Deg with emphasis on:

    • Storm intensity

    • High resolution moving nest

    • Multiple simultaneous storms


Modeling responsibilities ncep1

Modeling Responsibilities(NCEP)

  • Seasonal Climate Prediction with an emphasis on:

    • El-nino and La-nina prediction

    • Seasonal Climate anomalies for Drought and Temperature

    • Land surface changes

  • Global and Basin scale Ocean (N. Atlantic) with an emphasis on:

    • Short-term tide prediction

    • Ocean circulation and salinity

    • Sea Surface Height and heat content

    • Atmospheric Fluxes Boundary Conditions

    • Waves


Modeling responsibilities ncep2

Modeling Responsibilities(NCEP)

  • Limited Area Domain NWP (North America) with a focus on:

    • Precipitation forecasting to 3 days

    • Wind, temperature and weather

    • Locally Severe Weather – Thunderstorms, Hail, Damaging winds

    • Fire Weather Support

    • Aviation Weather – terminal and enroute

    • Smoke forecasts

    • Air Quality Forecasts for 8 and 24 hour ozone

    • Short Range ensembling

    • Land surface and hydrology


Modeling responsibilities ncep3

Modeling Responsibilities(NCEP)

  • Limited Area Domain (North America)

    • Transport and Dispersion Modeling for Homeland Security

    • Volcanic Ash

    • Near-shore and Great Lakes circulation and waves

    • Coastal Inundation

      • Tropical Storm Surge

      • Extra-tropical


Modeling responsibilities ncep4

Modeling Responsibilities(NCEP)

  • Space Environment Modeling

    • D-region Absorption Prediction for HF Radio communications

    • Storm Time Empirical Ionospheric Correction for Geomagnetic Storms

    • US total electron content Mapping for signal delay calculation for GPS Applications

    • Costello Geomagnetic Activity Index

    • Wang-Sheely Model for Solar Wind calculations

    • Relativistic Electron forecasts for Spacecraft Health


Copc environmental modeling conops spring copc 2007

Operations


Global modeling atmosphere

Global Modeling(Atmosphere)

  • Forecast modeling approach:

    • FNMOC

      • Will continue to operate NOGAPS

      • Will continue to execute deterministic forecast 4 times per day to TAU180

      • Will increase horizontal and vertical resolution as allowed for by improvements in science and available computer power

    • AFWA

      • Continue to leverage national global NWP centers

      • Migrate to use global NWP ensemble; JEFS is pathfinder

    • NCEP

      • Will continue to operate the Global Forecast System (GFS)

      • Will expand the use of ensembles (NAEFS, SREF, GENS)

      • Will increase horizontal and vertical resolution as allowed for by improvements in science and available computing


Global modeling atmosphere1

Global Modeling(Atmosphere)

  • Data assimilation/analysis approach:

    • FNMOC

      • Will employ NAVDAS/NAVDAS-AR for data assimilation

        • NAVDAS: 3DVAR

        • NAVDAS-AR: 4DVAR

      • Will include direct radiance assimilation

      • Will assimilate classified observations from DoD sources

    • NCEP

      • Will use Gridded Statistical Interpolation (GSI) as the operational data assimilation system in May 2007

      • Includes use of both direct radiance assimilation and derived products

      • Does NOT ingest classified data at this time


Global modeling atmosphere2

Global Modeling(Atmosphere)

  • Model coupling/dependencies

    • FNMOC/NAVO

      • NCODA/GNCOM (HYCOM) provides SST required by NOGAPS

      • NOGAPS provides lateral boundary conditions for COAMPS

      • NOGAPS provides surface winds and wind stresses to drive WW3/ WAM/ SWAN

      • NOGAPS provides wind stress and heat fluxes to drive all ocean circulation models (e.g., GNCOM (HYCOM), NCOM, ADCIRC)

      • NOGAPS provides winds to drive the NAAPS global aerosol model


Global modeling atmosphere3

Global Modeling(Atmosphere)

  • Model coupling/dependencies (cont’)

    • NCEP

      • GFS provides lateral boundary conditions for limited domain models

        • North American Mesoscale Model (NAM)

        • Hurricane Model (GFDL and HWRF)

      • GFS provides Surface winds and Surface stress for Wave Watch 3

      • GFS provides ozone and particulate boundary conditions for CMAQ Air Quality Model (future)

      • NOAA LSM provides lower boundary conditions for GFS, CFS, & NAM

      • NOAA Global Real-Time Ocean Forecast System provides lower boundary conditions for GFS


Global modeling atmosphere4

Global Modeling(Atmosphere)

  • Ensemble strategy

    • FNMOC

      • Will run NOGAPS ensemble at the NAVO MSRC, with balance of resolution against number of ensemble members determined by available computer resources and customer requirements

      • Will run twice per day with forecast time, output product suite, and delivery schedule appropriate to fully support the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) and Joint Ensemble Forecast System (JEFS) projects

      • Will continue to use the NOGAPS ensemble to force the corresponding WW3 ensemble

      • Will progressively move toward growing reliance on ensemble and joint ensemble products in the transition to full NUOPC implementation by 2015


Global modeling atmosphere5

Global Modeling(Atmosphere)

  • Ensemble strategy (cont’)

    • AFWA

      • Leverage NCEP/FNMOC national global ensemble (2010)

        • Completion of JEFS as pathfinder project for ensemble methods

        • Nominal members run by FNMOC and NCEP; NCEP lead for national ensemble result

        • Possible member contribution by AFWA (NCEP model) if needed to meet national production timeliness needs

        • National ensemble result ingested by AFWA

        • Processed at AFWA for DoD-tailored products and applications(Establish backup capability at FNMOC)

        • Covers majority of worldwide OCONUS requirements

        • 2 runs per day (0&12Z) to 15 day forecast

        • 4 runs per day global nearcast to 36hr (deterministic)

        • Initial resolution ~100km, with objective of 25km

        • Down scaling (ensemble MOS, analogs, etc.) run at AFWA


Global modeling atmosphere6

Global Modeling(Atmosphere)

  • Ensemble Strategy (cont’)

    • NCEP

      • Will run GFS Ensembles 4 x Day (20 member each cycle)

      • GFS Ensemble resolution (T126)

      • Will combine ensembles with ensembles from Canadian Met Center (and FNMOC, when available) to produce a combined ensemble

      • Will continue to develop bias removal techniques for the generation of products using combined ensemble.

      • Will continue to run CFS ensembles (2 per day) to produce monthly, seasonal and interannual climate prediction products


Global modeling atmosphere7

Global Modeling(Atmosphere)

  • Production relationships

    • FNMOC

      • Will continue to provide NOGAPS TC track predictions to NHC for use in its model composite

      • Will continue to provide NOGAPS surface winds, wind stresses and heat fluxes to drive a variety of ocean models at NAVO (e.g., GNCOM, HYCOM, etc.)

      • Will continue to provide a full complement of NOGAPS fields to support a variety of applications at AFWA

      • Will continue to provide NOGAPS as the backup for GFS at AFWA

      • Will provide the NOGAPS ensemble to NCEP as part of NAEFS

      • Will provide the NOGAPS ensemble to AFWA as part of JEFS


Global modeling atmosphere8

Global Modeling(Atmosphere)

  • Production relationships (cont’)

    • NCEP

      • Will continue to provide GFS boundary conditions to AFWA for use in driving limited domain models

      • Will provide GFS ensembles to Canada as part of NAEFS

      • Will provide GFS ensembles to FNMOC as part of NAEFS


Global modeling atmosphere9

Global Modeling(Atmosphere)

  • Post processing

    • FNMOC

      • Will continue to produce NOGAPS TC tracks for NHC 4 times per day

      • Will continue to post-process NOGAPS and NOGAPS ensemble fields into GRIB1 format

      • Will transition to use of GRIB2 output for NOGAPS and NOGAPS ensemble fields

      • Will implement Model Output Statistics (MOS) and ensemble calibration post processing for NOGAPS as needed

    • NCEP

      • Will continue to produce output in GRIB2 format

      • Will continue to produce GFS MOS to 7 days

      • Meteograms


Global modeling atmosphere10

Global Modeling(Atmosphere)

  • Post processing (cont’)

    • AFWA

      • Requires national ensemble global NWP for post processed applications in support of AFW worldwide operations

      • Global national ensemble NWP also used by AFWA to drive mesoscale NWP and specialized models


Global modeling atmosphere11

Global Modeling(Atmosphere)

  • Data exchange

    • FNMOC

      • Will continue to share unclassified observational data with NCEP, AFWA and NAVO

      • Will continue to share classified observational data with AFWA and NAVO

      • Will provide all NOGAPS and NOGAPS ensemble fields required by AFWA, NCEP and NAVO

      • Will continue to make NOGAPS TC tracks available to NHC 4 times per day

      • Will employ the Come and Get It Product Store (CAGIPS), utilizing Joint METOC Broker Language (JMBL) for product requests, as the principal means for sharing data


Global modeling atmosphere12

Global Modeling(Atmosphere)

  • Data exchange (cont’)

    • NCEP

      • Will continue to share observational data with FNMOC and AFWA

      • Will provide model output to world using NOMADS

      • Will continue to provide GFS ensembles to FNMOC and CMC

      • Will continue to provide CFS Ensembles to ECMWF


Global modeling atmosphere13

Global Modeling(Atmosphere)

  • Data exchange (continued)

    • AFWA

      • Will continue to share observational data with FNMOC and NWS/NCEP

      • Requires current deterministic runs (GFS and NOGAPS)

      • Ensemble members from NCEP and FNMOC for JEFS

      • Transition to ingest National Global NWP ensemble result

        • Twice daily ensemble to 15 day forecast, based on major synoptic cycles (0 and 12Z)

        • Four times daily (0, 6, 12 and 18Z) quick turn 36hr Global NWP nearcast to support nowcasting


Global modeling ocean

Global Modeling(Ocean)

  • Forecast modeling approach

    • FNMOC

      • Will continue to operate WW3, forced by NOGAPS

      • Will continue to execute WW3 deterministic forecast 4 times per day to TAU180

      • Will increase resolution in parallel with NOGAPS

    • FNMOC/NAVO

      • Will jointly operate GNCOM for two-way loose coupling with NOGAPS

      • Will execute GNCOM at NAVO MSRC under EOM system control

      • Will force GNCOM with NOGAPS with forecast SST fed back to NOGAPS


Global modeling ocean1

Global Modeling(Ocean)

  • Forecast modeling approach

    • FNMOC/NAVO (cont.)

      • Will continue to operate GNCOM forced by NOGAPS

      • Will continue to execute GNCOM once per day to TAU72(120)

      • Will transition to HYCOM once per day to TAU120(168) at increasingly higher resolution

    • NCEP

      • Will continue to operate Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) for the North Atlantic

      • Will continue effort to implement HYCOM as the Global Real-Time Ocean Forecast System by 2010

      • Will continue effort to implement high resolution HYCOM for central Pacific and North East Pacific Basins, including Gulf of Alaska


Global modeling ocean2

Global Modeling(Ocean)

  • Forecast modeling approach (continued)

    • NCEP (continued)

      • Will continue to run Wave Watch 3 globally

      • Global and regional WW3 integrated in a single model (multiply and 2-way nested at run time)


Global modeling ocean3

Global Modeling(Ocean)

  • Data assimilation/analysis approach

    • FNMOC

      • Will implement altimeter wave height data assimilation in WW3 based on the NCODA Multi-Variate Optimum Interpolation (MVOI) approach

    • FNMOC/NAVO

      • Will use NCODA/GNCOM to provide global analysis of SST and 3D ocean thermal structure

      • Will upgrade NCODA from MVOI to 3DVAR

    • NCEP

      • Will continue to use GODAS as the operational data assimilation system for the Climate Forecast System

      • Will use NCEP-developed 3D-Var system in RTOFS beginning in FY07


Global modeling ocean4

Global Modeling(Ocean)

  • Model coupling/dependencies

    • FNMOC/NAVO

      • Global WW3 will provide lateral boundary conditions for limited-area multiply-nested implementations of WW3/WAM/SWAN

      • GNCOM (HYCOM) and NOGAPS will be loosely and asynchronously two-way coupled

      • Global HYCOM will provide boundary conditions for high resolution coastal applications of ADCIRC

    • NCEP

      • Global RTOFS will provide lateral boundaries (including tides) for basin and limited domain implementations

      • Atlantic and North East Pacific Implementations will provide boundaries for coastal and estuary models

      • Global RTOFS will provide lower boundary conditions for GFS

      • Multiply nested WW3


Global modeling ocean5

Global Modeling(Ocean)

  • Ensemble strategy

    • FNMOC

      • Will continue to operate the WW3 ensemble:

        • Forced by NOGAPS ensemble

        • Executed at NAVO MSRC under EOM control

        • Resolution and number of members matched to NOGAPS ensemble

      • Will produce unified FNMOC/NCEP WW3 ensemble

    • FNMOC/NAVO

      • Will implement GNCOM (HYCOM) ensembles to provide ocean adaptive sampling guidance

    • NCEP

      • Will continue to provide 10 member WW3 ensembles 4X per day (126 hour forecast)


Global modeling ocean6

Global Modeling(Ocean)

  • Production relationships

    • FNMOC

      • Will provide WW3 output to support NAVO nested WAM and SWAN models and applications

      • Will acquire WW3 ensemble output from NCEP to produce a unified FNMOC/NCEP WW3 ensemble

    • FNMOC/NAVO

      • Will operate GNCOM using the EOM approach for two-way coupling with NOGAPS

      • Will provide global 3D ocean thermal fields from NCODA/GNCOM to NAVO acoustic models

      • Will provide GNCOM (HYCOM) for boundary conditions and backup for limited-area ocean models at NCEP, as needed


Global modeling ocean7

Global Modeling(Ocean)

  • Post processing

    • FNMOC

      • Will continue to post-process WW3 and WW3 ensemble output fields into GRIB1 format

      • Will transition to use of GRIB2 for WW3 and WW3 ensemble

      • Will implement Model Output Statistics (MOS) and ensemble calibration post processing for WW3 as needed

    • FNMOC/NAVO

      • Will post-process GNCOM and HYCOM output into GRIB1 and eventually GRIB2 format for exchange with NCEP

      • NOAA/Navy technical discussion needed to determine if GRIB is appropriate post-processing format for ocean fields

    • NCEP

      • Will post process RTOFS output into GRIB1 and eventually GRIB2 format


Global modeling ocean8

Global Modeling(Ocean)

  • Data exchange

    • FNMOC

      • Will provide FNMOC WW3 spectral output to NAVO as a Web Service to provide lateral boundary conditions for NAVO limited-area wave models (WAM and SWAN)

      • Will provide global 3D ocean thermal fields from NCODA as backup input to NAVO acoustic models

      • Will acquire WW3 ensemble fields from NCEP to combine with FNMOC WW3 ensemble

      • Will employ the Come and Get It Product Store (CAGIPS), accessed through a Web portal and utilizing Joint METOC Broker Language (JMBL) for product requests, as the principal means for sharing data


Global modeling ocean9

Global Modeling(Ocean)

  • Data exchange (cont’)

    • FNMOC/NAVO

      • Will exchange NOGAPS forcing and GNCOM SSTs sufficient for two-way loose coupling

      • Will continue to provide complete GNCOM (HYCOM) fields to NOAA/NESDIS (NCDDC) for public use

      • Will provide GNCOM (HYCOM) for boundary conditions and backup for limited-area ocean models at NCEP, if needed

    • NAVO

      • Will continue to share processed MCSST and altimetry with NOAA NCEP & NHC for use in ocean model assimilation and upper ocean heat content analyses

    • NCEP

      • Will continue to provide WW3 output to FNMOC


Global modeling other global models sea ice

Global Modeling(Other Global Models – Sea Ice)

  • Forecast modeling approach

    • NAVO/FNMOC Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS 2) transitioning to PIPS 3 coupled with Global NCOM (HYCOM) run stream

      • PIPS 2 based on Hibler Ice Forecast Code

      • PIPS 3 based on Los Alamos CICE

  • Data Assimilation

    • Optimum interpolation of ice edge and SSMI-derived ice concentration

  • Model coupling/dependencies

    • NOGAPS heat/ momentum fluxes, GNCOM (HYCOM) ocean heat flux

  • Data Exchange

    • Forecast Arctic ice edge, ice concentration, convergence/divergence provided to joint NOAA/Navy National Ice Center


Global modeling other global models afwa

Global Modeling(Other Global Models - AFWA)

  • Forecast modeling approach

    • AFWA maintains four global surface characterization models

      • Snow Depth (SNODEP) analysis - Will continue to provide to NOAA/NCEP and FNMOC

      • Agriculture Meteorology (AGRMET)

        • Land Data Assimilation System

        • Will continue to provide to NCEP, NASA, FNMOC, ARL, USDA, NWS Offices

      • Geostationary Infra-Red Precipitation (GEOPRECIP) - Will continue to provide to AFTAC, CIA

      • Surface Temperature (SFCTMP) used in CDFSII to support WWMCA

    • AFWA will continue CDFSII World Wide Merged Cloud Analysis (WWMCA)

      • Cloud “Assimilation” system

      • Uses WRF/NCEP GFS model output for cloud forecasting tool


Global modeling other global models afwa cont

Global Modeling(Other Global Models - AFWA Cont’)

  • Forecast modeling approach (Continued)

  • AFWA will integrate Land Information System (LIS) software into AFWA’s NWP system (e.g., CDFS-II)to provide high resolution modeling

    • Will reduce overall number of software systems

      • Combine SFCTMP, SNODEP, AGRMET, and GEOPRECIP software packages into 1 LIS package

  • Data assimilation/analysis approach

    • LIS has real data assimilation capabilities

      • Ensemble Kalman Filter – more members for JEFS

      • Capability to use NASA Earth Observing Satellite (EOS) data – provides support to NPOESS preparation


  • Global modeling other global models afwa cont1

    Global Modeling(Other Global Models - AFWA Cont’)

    • Data assimilation/analysis approach (continued)

      • Adopt/integrate a data assimilation approach to cloud models

        • Microwave satellite observations from SSMI/S, AMSR-E

        • Satellite-based LIDAR observations (i.e., CloudSAT)

        • Space-based RADAR observations (i.e., CALIPSO)

        • Satellite sounding information (i.e., AIRS) to provide atmospheric humidity information along cloud edges

        • In-situ observations of atmospheric humidity (RAWINSONDES)

        • NWP produced “first guess” atmospheric humidity information in cloud filled regions

    • Model coupling/dependencies

      • WRF initialization support – LIS coupled via ESMF

      • Transition to coupled NWP and Cloud Model


    Global modeling aerosols

    Global Modeling(Aerosols)

    • Forecast modeling approach

      • FNMOC

        • Will continue to operate NAAPS

        • Will match NAAPS resolution and forecast length to NOGAPS

      • AFWA

        • Near term - will continue post process use of Dust Transport Application from imported global NWP

        • Investigate reuse of FNMOC/NRL aerosol application

        • Migrate to use of global NWP with aerosols as direct output variable (will need national partners’ collaboration on capability)

    • Data assimilation/analysis approach

      • FNMOC

        • Will assimilate smoke, dust and marine aerosols into NAAPS via NAVDAS and, eventually, NAVDAS-AR


    Global modeling aerosols1

    Global Modeling(Aerosols)

    • Model coupling/dependencies

      • FNMOC

        • Will continue to drive NAAPS with NOGAPS

        • Will eventually merge NAAPS capability into NOGAPS

    • Ensemble strategy

      • FNMOC

        • Will implement global ensemble capability as a by-product of NOGAPS ensemble when NAAPS merges into NOGAPS


    Global modeling aerosols2

    Global Modeling(Aerosols)

    • Production relationships

      • FNMOC

        • Will continue to share NAAPS output with NAVO to support MCSST processing

        • Will make NAAPS output available to AFWA and NCEP in support of global aerosol applications

    • Post processing

      • FNMOC

        • Will implement NAAPS MOS post processing as needed


    Global modeling aerosols3

    Global Modeling(Aerosols)

    • Data exchange

      • FNMOC

        • NAAPS requires the global fires data base for input

        • Will employ the Come and Get It Product Store (CAGIPS), utilizing Joint METOC Broker Language (JMBL) for product requests, as the principal means for sharing data


    Limited area modeling atmosphere

    Limited Area Modeling(Atmosphere)

    • Forecast modeling approach

      • FNMOC

        • Will continue to operate COAMPS as its limited-area model

        • Will fully transition to use of the CAAPS system for all implementations of COAMPS

          • Classification levels up to TS/SCI

          • Regularly scheduled runs

          • On-demand runs

          • Multi-nested implementations at resolutions determined by customer requirements and available computer resources

          • Moving nest option for tropical cyclones


    Limited area modeling atmosphere1

    Limited Area Modeling(Atmosphere)

    • Forecast modeling approach (continued)

      • NCEP

        • Will continue to use WRF-NMM for the North American Mesoscale Model (NAM)

        • Will continue to use HWRF as the primary hurricane forecast model

        • Will continue to use RUC as the rapid update cycle model until replace with WRF Rapid Refresh Model in 2010

        • Will continue to use CMAQ as the operational Air Quality Model for ozone and particulate forecasts

        • Will continue to use WRF NMM as the High Resolution model for Severe Weather for Conus, Puerto Rico, Alaska and Hawaii

        • Will continue to use HYSPLIT for transport and dispersion applications as required

        • Will continue to use WRF-NMM as the High Resolution Fire Weather Model to support operational fire fighting and other domestic incident support


    Limited area modeling atmosphere2

    Limited Area Modeling(Atmosphere)

    • Forecast modeling approach (continued)

      • AFWA

        • Support 3-4 theaters with multi-nested mesoscale NWP

        • Continue WRF Transition from MM5

        • Continue community modeling approach for technology transition and ongoing model improvement

        • Classification levels to Collateral Secret; Classified observational data assimilation; possible expansion to TS-SCIto complete DoD CONOPS/back-up capability

        • On demand, rapidly relocated and nested contingency window

        • Transition to shared DoD ensemble capability

        • Ensemble/stochastic NWP key enabler

          • AFW forecasters can focus on high-risk weather events and high risk mission impact variables

          • Probabilistic forecasts enabler for improved warfighter decision process and environmental exploitation


    Limited area modeling atmosphere3

    Limited Area Modeling(Atmosphere)

    • Data assimilation/analysis approach

      • FNMOC/NAVO

        • Will employ NAVDAS/NAVDAS-AR (including direct radiance assimilation) for atmospheric component of COAMPS and NCODA for coupled ocean model components

        • Will upgrade NCODA to a 3DVAR approach based on the NAVDAS software design

        • Will include assimilation of classified obs from DoD sources for both atmosphere and ocean

      • NCEP

        • Will use unified GSI for all operational data assimilation (except current RUC); GSI will be used for WRF Rapid Refresh


    Limited area modeling atmosphere4

    Limited Area Modeling(Atmosphere)

    • Data assimilation/analysis approach (Continued)

      • AFWA

        • NCAR overall lead for AFWA data assimilation

        • Integrate JCSDA and ongoing NCAR work into WRFVAR

        • Focus on increased collaboration between NCAR/JCSDA

        • Evaluate Hybrid EKF/4D-VAR DA Techniques

        • Collaborating with NCEP & NASA on land surface modeling (LSM) DA issues

          • Plan to merge radiance assimilation into LSM for WRF

          • Provides common assimilation basis for new Land Information System (LIS) Model


    Limited area modeling atmosphere5

    Limited Area Modeling(Atmosphere)

    • Model coupling/dependencies

      • FNMOC/NAVO

        • CAAPS/COAMPS will include coupled/embedded atmospheric dispersion models (e.g., VLSTRACK, HPAC, JEM)

        • CAAPS/COAMPS will include coupled/embedded ocean models (e.g., NCODA, WW3, SWAN, RNCOM)

        • CAAPS/COAMPS will provide high-resolution surface winds, wind stresses and heat fluxes to drive other NAVO ocean models and ocean applications

      • NCEP

        • NAM provides surface winds and stress for coastal and estuary circulation models and Great Lakes Wave and Circulation Models

        • NAM provides lateral boundary conditions for:

          • High Resolution Windows for Severe Weather

          • Fire Weather Model

          • Rapid Update Cycle


    Limited area modeling atmosphere6

    Limited Area Modeling(Atmosphere)

    • Model coupling/dependencies (continued)

      • NCEP (continued)

        • NAM drives CMAQ Air Quality Model

        • NOAH Land Surface Model provides lower boundary conditions for all mesoscale implementations

      • AFWA

        • WRF will be coupled with LSM

        • Will be coupled with follow-on LIS


    Limited area modeling atmosphere7

    Limited Area Modeling(Atmosphere)

    • Ensemble strategy

      • FNMOC/NAVO

        • Will implement COAMPS-based ensembles executed under the CAAPS system

        • Will include ensembles of related ocean models

        • Will coordinate with AFWA to contribute COAMPS-ensembles to JEFS for DoD applications

        • Will collaborate with AFWA to achieve optimum DoD strategy for use of ensembles in tactical decision aids and decision making process

        • Will progressively move toward growing reliance on ensemble and joint ensemble products in the transition to full NUOPC implementation by 2015


    Limited area modeling atmosphere8

    Limited Area Modeling(Atmosphere)

    • Ensemble strategy (Continued)

      • AFWA

        • Use JEFS as Proof of Concept

        • CONUS Fine-Scale Ensemble (2010)

          • Run by NWS and ingested at AFWA

          • Processed at AFWA for DoD-tailored products and applications

        • OCONUS Fine-Scale Ensembles (incremental from 2010-2013)

          • Theater scale ensembles - members by both AFWA & FNMOC

          • 4 windows at 9/3km (or better) for priority, fine-scale requirements

          • Production theater ensembles have service lead (AFWA or FNMOC)

          • AFWA and FNMOC run deconflicted sub nests as required

          • Must determine best stochastic capability method for hi-resolution nests with short forecast duration (e.g., if downscaling, ensembling, or a form of MOS provides most cost effective approach)


    Limited area modeling atmosphere9

    Limited Area Modeling(Atmosphere)

    • Ensemble strategy (Continued)

      • NCEP

        • Use multi-model approach for Short Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF) with Eta, Regional Spectral Model, WRF ARW, and WRF NMM

        • 21Members 4x per day to 87 hours

        • Use Breeding (Ensemble Transform), multiple models, and multiple boundary conditions to achieve diversity

        • Bias correction to be implemented in FY08

        • Hybrid ensemble approach used to apply low resolution ensemble increment to High Resolution Operational control

        • Will eliminate use of Eta and RSM in the ESMF era


    Limited area modeling atmosphere10

    Limited Area Modeling(Atmosphere)

    • Production relationships

      • FNMOC

        • Will coordinate implementation of OCONUS COAMPS limited-area domains with AFWA in support of DoD requirements

          • Co-registration of theater-scale outer nests to support joint requirements via JEFS

          • Complementary positioning of higher-resolution inner nests to support service-specific requirements

        • Will provide CAAPS/COAMPS support to AFWA at the TS/SCI level as needed


    Limited area modeling atmosphere11

    Limited Area Modeling(Atmosphere)

    • Production relationships (cont’)

      • FNMOC/NAVO

        • Will make on-demand execution of COAMPS and associated ocean models available to Navy via CAAPS hosted at FNMOC andNAVO

        • Will coordinate implementation of CONUS COAMPS limited-area domains with NCEP and AFWA in support of National requirements


    Limited area modeling atmosphere12

    Limited Area Modeling(Atmosphere)

    • Production relationships (cont’)

      • NCEP

        • Will provide CONUS Forecasts to AFWA

      • AFWA

        • Shared OCONUS ensemble production responsibility with FNMOC

        • Provide hi-res nests where AFWA has theater lead to FNMOC/NAVO as required

        • Provide OCONUS support to NCEP as capacity allows

        • Mutual back-up with FNMOC for DoD limited area NWP


    Limited area modeling atmosphere13

    Limited Area Modeling(Atmosphere)

    • Post processing

      • FNMOC

        • Will continue to post-process COAMPS output into GRIB1

        • Will transition COAMPS output to GRIB2

        • Will implement MOS for COAMPS as needed

        • Will implement calibration of COAMPS ensembles as needed

      • NCEP

        • Will continue to post-process NAM etc output into GRIB1

        • Will continue to produce Eta 32 MOS

        • Will not produce NAM MOS based on the WRF

      • AFWA

        • Will continue to post-process WRF output into GRIB1 format

        • Will transition WRF output to GRIB2

        • Will implement JEFS ensemble calibration and post processing


    Limited area modeling atmosphere14

    Limited Area Modeling(Atmosphere)

    • Data exchange

      • FNMOC

        • Will continue to share unclassified observational data with NCEP and AFWA

        • Will continue to share classified observational data with AFWA

        • Will provide all COAMPS and COAMPS ensemble fields required by AFWA and NCEP

        • Will employ the Come and Get It Product Store (CAGIPS), utilizing Joint METOC Broker Language (JMBL)

      • NCEP

        • Will continue to use NOMADS

        • Will provide required fields to AFWA and FNMOC

      • AFWA

        • Will provide required model exchange with FNMOC and NCEP

        • Will continue to share unclassified observational data with NCEP and FNMOC; share classified observational data with FNMOC


    Limited area modeling ocean

    Limited Area Modeling(Ocean)

    • Forecast modeling approach

      • FNMOC/NAVO

        • Will operate the following limited-area ocean modeling capabilities (eventually within the CAAPS/COAMPS system) hosted at FNMOC and NAVO:

          • 3D ocean thermal structure analysis (e.g., NCODA)

          • 3D ocean thermal structure and currents forecast (e.g., RNCOM)

          • Deep-water wave forecasts (e.g.,WW3)

          • Shallow-water wave/surf forecasts (e.g., SWAN)

      • NAVO

        • Will operate multiply-nested deep-water wave models (e.g., WAM) in support of shallow-water wave/surf forecasts (e.g., SWAN, DELFT3D)

        • Will operate hi-resolution, relocateable coastal/estuarine/riverine models (e.g., ADCIRC)


    Limited area modeling ocean1

    Limited Area Modeling(Ocean)

    • Data assimilation/analysis approach

      • FNMOC/NAVO

        • Will perform ocean thermal data assimilation via the MVOI technique in NCODA

          • Will include automated QC with manual correction of input data

          • Will eventually upgrade to a 3DVAR version of NCODA

        • Will implement altimeter wave height data assimilation in WW3 based on the NCODA MVOI approach implemented in CAAPS

      • NCEP

        • Will continue to run RTOFS for North Atlantic Basin

        • Will implement high resolution HYCOM for North East Pacific Basin (including Gulf of Alaska) and Hawaii in 2010 1011 timeframe


    Limited area modeling ocean2

    Limited Area Modeling(Ocean)

    • NCEP (cont.)

      • Will expand coverage of coastal and estuary models to eventually cover 100% of US coastline (NOS)

      • High Resolution Wave Modeling along coast will be met by multiply nested WW3


    Limited area modeling ocean3

    Limited Area Modeling(Ocean)

    • Model coupling/dependencies

      • FNMOC/NAVO

        • COAMPS, NCODA, RNCOM, WW3 and SWAN will all be coupled (in some cases, two-way) within the CAAPS system with boundary conditions provided by the global models (e.g., global WW3, GNCOM(HYCOM))

        • CAAPS/COAMPS will provide surface winds, wind stresses and heat fluxes for other limited-area ocean models at NAVO (e.g., RNCOM, ADCIRC, WAM, SWAN, Delft3D)

      • NCEP

        • Global RTOFS will provide boundaries for limited domain RTOFS; lower boundary conditions for GFS and Hurricane Model


    Limited area modeling ocean4

    Limited Area Modeling(Ocean)

    • Ensemble strategy

      • FNMOC/NAVO

        • Will implement COAMPS-based ensembles executed under the CAAPS system

        • Will include ensembles of related ocean models (RNCOM, WW3, SWAN)

      • NCEP - None


    Limited area modeling ocean5

    Limited Area Modeling(Ocean)

    • Production relationships

      • FNMOC/NAVO

        • Will jointly operate on-demand limited-area ocean models within the CAAPS system

        • Will coordinate and share CAAPS processing resources hosted at both sites to balance workload as needed

        • Will coordinate the implementation of CAAPS/COAMPS areas to provide high-resolution surface winds, wind stresses and heat fluxes to drive limited-area ocean models not contained within CAAPS (e.g., WAM, SWAN, Delft3D, ADCIRC)

        • Will provide high-resolution limited-area ocean model products to NCEP and AFWA, if needed

      • NCEP - None at this time


    Limited area modeling ocean6

    Limited Area Modeling(Ocean)

    • Post processing

      • FNMOC/NAVO

        • Will post-process fields into GRIB1 and eventually GRIB2

        • NOAA/Navy technical discussion needed to determine if GRIB is appropriate post-processing format for ocean fields

        • Will implement MOS post processing, if needed

      • NCEP

        • RTOFS output are put into GRIB1


    Limited area modeling ocean7

    Limited Area Modeling(Ocean)

    • Data exchange

      • FNMOC/NAVO

        • Will coordinate the implementation of and exchange of data from their CAAPS areas

        • Will make limited-area ocean model output available to NCEP and AFWA, as needed

      • NAVO

        • Will make automated QC’d oceanographic data (with manual correction) available to FNMOC for assimilation

        • Will continue to share processed MCSST and altimetry with NOAA for ocean model assimilation


    Limited area modeling aerosols

    Limited Area Modeling(Aerosols)

    • Forecast modeling approach

      • FNMOC

        • Will continue to provide high-resolution aerosol predictions directly from COAMPS

    • Data assimilation/analysis approach

      • FNMOC

        • Will assimilate smoke, dust and marine aerosols via NAVDAS and, eventually, NAVDAS-AR


    Limited area modeling aerosols1

    Limited Area Modeling(Aerosols)

    • Model coupling/dependencies

      • FNMOC

        • COAMPS and COAMPS aerosol lateral boundary conditions will be provided by NOGAPS/NAAPS

    • Ensemble strategy

      • FNMOC

        • Will implement limited area ensemble capability as a by-product of COAMPS ensembles implemented in conjunction with JEFS


    Limited area modeling aerosols2

    Limited Area Modeling(Aerosols)

    • Production relationships

      • FNMOC

        • Will COAMPS aerosol output available to AFWA and NCEP in support of regional aerosol applications

    • Post processing

      • FNMOC

        • Will implement COAMPS aerosol MOS post processing as needed


    Limited area modeling aerosols3

    Limited Area Modeling(Aerosols)

    • Data exchange

      • FNMOC

        • Will require the global fires data base for input

        • Will employ the Come and Get It Product Store (CAGIPS), utilizing Joint METOC Broker Language (JMBL) for product requests, as the principal means for sharing data


    Space environment modeling ionosphere

    Space Environment Modeling(Ionosphere)

    • Forecast modeling approach:

      • AFWA

        • Continue focus on improving GAIM model - Team with NCEP, NASA and others to integrate enhancements

        • Full physics version of GAIM in development - Planned to be operational in FY10

        • Increase from 83 to several hundred vertical layers

        • Increase top from 1400km to 30,000km


    Space environment modeling ionosphere1

    Space Environment Modeling(Ionosphere)

    • Data assimilation/analysis approach:

      • AFWA

        • Develop joint strategy with NOAA for global ground-based ionospheric sensing

          • Initial dialogue established

        • Increase data assimilated from R&D sources

        • Increase data assimilated from NASA satellites


    Space environment modeling ionosphere2

    Space Environment Modeling(Ionosphere)

    • Model coupling/dependencies

      • AFWA

        • ESMF compliant interfaces between all space environment models being developed through BEI

        • Solar Wind model drives most other models

    • Ensemble strategy

      • No definite plans at AFWA or NCEP

  • Production relationships

    • AFWA

      • Will provide GAIM model output to SEC

      • Will obtain some GAIM input data from SEC


  • Space environment modeling magnetosphere

    Space Environment Modeling(Magnetosphere)

    • Forecast modeling approach:

      • AFWA

        • Continue running three conditioned climatology models

          • MSFM – low energy particles

          • RBE – medium energy particles

          • REP – high energy particles

        • FY07 task underway to define next generation magnetospheric modeling capability circa 2010


    Space environment modeling magnetosphere1

    Space Environment Modeling (Magnetosphere)

    • Data assimilation/analysis approach

      • DA not applicable

      • Will continue improving climatology based on observed magnetic flux and particle data

    • Model coupling/dependencies

      • ESMF compliant interfaces between all space environment models being developed through BEI

      • Input from solar wind model (HAF)

    • Ensemble strategy

      • No ensemble plans

    • Production relationships

      • AFWA will provide MSFM, RBE, REP model output to SEC


    Space environment modeling heliosphere

    Space Environment Modeling(Heliosphere)

    • Forecast modeling approach:

      • AFWA

        • Continue running HAF kinematic solar wind model

          • Multi-day forecasts of solar wind

          • Event driven capability


    Space environment modeling heliosphere1

    Space Environment Modeling(Heliosphere)

    • Data assimilation/analysis approach

      • Assimilate data from ACE satellite (L1 libation point)

      • Assimilate data from solar observatories

    • Model coupling/dependencies

      • ESMF compliant interfaces between all space environment models being developed through BEI

      • Provides critical input to magnetospheric and ionospheric models

    • Ensemble strategy

      • No definite plans

    • Production relationships

      • AFWA will provide HAF model output to SEC


    Copc environmental modeling conops spring copc 2007

    R&D Transition


    New capability coordination

    New Capability Coordination

    • Use coordinated R&D transition process

      • Consider process similar to CNMOC Administrative Models Oversight Panel (AMOP)

        • AMOP currently includes NOAA and Air Force observers

        • Shared process must mutually support varied agency R&D sources, planning, and investment processes

      • Long term transition roadmaps based on requirements

      • R&D provider and OPC team develop/execute transition plan

        • Agreed on metrics to assess transition success

        • Independent evaluation, e.g., via use of DTC relationships (if major transition)

        • Transition checkpoints (e.g., R&D to OPS Check, OPS Check to IOC)


    Relationships with r d providers fnmoc navo

    Relationships with R&D Providers(FNMOC/NAVO)

    • NRL

      • Primary source for R&D

      • Functions as very effective Developmental Test Center (DTC), with significant access to FNMOC/NAVO hardware/software/data infrastructure

      • Provides significant “warranty” support of transitioned R&D

      • Model transitions governed by Administrative Models Oversight Panel (AMOP) process

    • Larger R&D community leveraged primarily via NRL:

      • Academia & Industry (full range of science issues)

      • Examples: ONR NOPP HYCOM, ASA Coastal Applications


    Relationships with r d providers fnmoc

    Relationships with R&D Providers(FNMOC)

    • GFDL - R&D support for GFDN TC model

    • NCEP - R&D support for WW3 wave model

    • JCSDA

      • Satellite radiance assimilation)

      • Leveraged through NRL


    Relationships with r d providers afwa

    Relationships with R&D Providers(AFWA)

    • NCAR - Primary source for R&D; Leverages larger academic and research community

    • UCAR - Visiting Scientist Program coordination; COSMIC data

    • NRL/FNMOC - R&D support for JEFS; GAIM support, UV sensor

    • JCSDA - Satellite radiance assimilation

    • NCEP - JEFS Support; CM for Noah Land Data Assimilation System

    • NOAA Centers and Labs - Tailored product support

    • AFRL - Atmospheric turbulence work; Space Weather V&V, metrics, SCINDA, HF communication product development

    • NASA (MSFC, GSFC, CCMC) - Radiation Belt Environment (RBE), STEREO, Space WX Verification & Validation (V&V)

    • DoD High Performance Computing Office (BEI) - JEFS Development; Land Information System; NAEFS; DREN

    • AFIT/NPS - Academia (capabilities/requirements-driven)

    • MIT/Lincoln Labs - Cloud Forecasting

    • Army CRREL - Land Surface Modeling


    Relationships with r d providers afwa1

    Relationships with R&D Providers(AFWA)

    • ARL - JEFS (WRAP); Nowcasting (WRE)

    • AER, Inc - Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRDA) through 2009

    • CSU - Remote sensing, Data compression techniques, Data Assimilation, soil moisture, CLOUDSAT

    • COLA/IGES (Univ of Maryland) - IGrADS software support

    • Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab - Dust Transport Algorithm); UPOS (RBE, Dst Prediction, Kp Analysis & Prediction)

    • NOAA/SEC - Space WX data feeds, D-Region absorption, electron fluence, AFWA backup

    • USU (Utah State Univ) - GAIM Model development, thermosphere & ionosphere modeling and sensing

    • ExPI - HAF space wx model, BEI (solar wind/ionosphere coupling)

    • Space Environment Corporation - HAF/GAIM coupling, Real-time Dst Calculation

    • Rice University - Magnetospheric Specification & Forecast Model (MSFM)

    • USGS - Kp Analysis, Real-time Dst, RBE, Dst Prediction, MSFM


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