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Technological progress and capacity estimations - Management implications for the Danish cod trawl fishery Erik Lindebo, SJFI Copenhagen, Denmark. Capacity management Baltic cod fishery Baltic cod fleet Investment & tech. progress Analysis: Dataset

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Technological progress and capacity estimations

- Management implications for the Danish cod trawl fishery

  • Erik Lindebo, SJFI

  • Copenhagen, Denmark


  • Capacity management

  • Baltic cod fishery

  • Baltic cod fleet

  • Investment & tech. progress

  • Analysis: Dataset

  • Analysis: Technological progress

  • Analysis: DEA capacity estimates

  • Limitations

  • Management implications


Capacity management

  • MAGPs 1983 to present

  • 1990’s – Danish fleet reduced by over ¼ (GT, kW)

  • Strict policy and limited fleet renewal

  • 2000-01 expansion allowed under current MAGP targets

  •  23% (GT) and 26% (kW)

  •  19% (GT) and 29% (kW) for trawl segment


Impact of technological progress

  • Tech. progress allows:

  •  Increase production level given effort or

  •  Maintain production level whilst reducing effort

  • International estimates of 2-3% per annum

  • Paper partly based on EU study (UK, France, Holland and DK) “The impact of technological progress on fishing effort”

  • Danish cod trawl fishery in the Baltic Sea


Finland

Norway

Sweden

Estonia

Russia

Denmark

Latvia

Baltic Sea

Lithuania

Bornholm

Germany

Poland


Baltic cod fishery

  • Cod fishery is the most valuable in Denmark

  • Fine balance between human and environmental factors

  • Winter months – high season

  • Eastern and Western cod stocks

  • ICES recommends reduction in fishing mortality

  • 1980-90’s has seen a boom-and-bust period

  • Problems expect to intensify due to stock problems in North Sea



Baltic cod fleet

  • Trawling vessels dominate

  • Mobile fleet with variable strategies

  • Influx of larger vessels from North Sea during boom period

  • Later years – smaller, flexible vessels have dominated

  • Managed by quota rations, mesh sizes, closed seasons etc.


Investments & tech. progress

  • Tightening of capacity-enhancing project investments

  • Renovations, electronics, fish handling, engines, safety equip.

  • Limited incentives since cod decline in 1992-93

  • Qualitatively analysed through industry interviews and literature



Analysis: Dataset

  • 23 trawlers actively fishing Baltic cod (sub-fleet)

  • February, 1987-99

  • Made specific to enable the use of cod stock (SSB) information

  • Directorate of Fisheries data variables such as:

  • Landing data (cod/other), days at sea, landing declarations, GT, kW, length, age, insurance value, homeport, fishing gear, SSB (two stocks), tech. progress dummy


Analysis: Technological progress

  • Undertaken by Jim Kirkley and Cathy Morrison

  • Standard economic analytical procedure (technical change)

  • Sub-fleet production was –3% per annum

  • Sub-fleet CPUE declined over the period

  • Insurance value is representative of progress

  • Vessels varied in extent of contribution to overall tech. progress

  • Sub-fleet tech. progress of 1.8% per annum


Technological change for trawling sub-fleet, 1987-99

Year to Year

Mean 87-93

Mean 94-99

Cumulative

10

25

8

20

6

15

Year to Year/Mean

Cumulative

4

10

2

5

0

-2

0

1990-91

1991-92

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1987-88

1988-89

1989-90

1992-93

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96


Analysis: DEA capacity estimates

  • Mathematical linear programming technique, estimating the relative efficiency of vessels

  • Potential capacity output given inputs

  • Capacity utilisation (CU)……see Table 5 on page 17

  • Vessel CU range 0.52-0.92 (1987-99 average)

  • Sub-fleet CU 0.73 (1987-99 average)

  • CU scores are worse in later years

  • Bornholm have fewer problems with capacity

  • Vessels with lowest CU show greater tech. progress


Limitations

  • Results for 23 vessels cannot be aggregated to fleet level

  • No annual data to take account of flexible fishing strategies and objectives of investments

  • No distinction between cod and other fish landings

  • Impact of management regulations (quota rations) will determine investment incentives and capacity utilisation

  • DEA analysis

  • Revenue-based approach

  • Larger vessel sample with annual data

  • Tentative results due to vessel-specific and seasonal data


Management implications

  • Vessels with high tech. progress have low CU  increased potential has not been realised due to restricted quota rations

  • Better CU for Bornholm vessels

  • Technological progress – not uniform over time and driven by fisher incentives (stock status)

  • Capacity problems in analysed fleet

  • Fishing industry acknowledges that there is overcapacity

  •  possible capacity expansion under MAGPs (trawl segment)?

  •  Question validity and objectives of MAGP targets



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