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Sabin & Thorne Deadlines. * if you want a mentor. Sabin Environmental Prize. Financial Projections January 31, 2014. Sabin Application (Due March 24). Five years of financial projections Income Statement & Balance Sheet Explanation of use of prize money

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Sabin thorne deadlines
Sabin & Thorne Deadlines

*if you want a mentor


Financial projections january 31 2014

Sabin Environmental Prize

Financial Projections

January 31, 2014


Sabin application due march 24
Sabin Application (Due March 24)

  • Five years of financial projections

    • Income Statement & Balance Sheet

  • Explanation of use of prize money

  • Total $ needed – to make business work


Purpose of financial projections
Purpose of Financial Projections

  • Answer: Can the business make $?

  • Help you think through the details

  • Attract capital (investors)



What do investors want
What do Investors Want?

  • Their money back in, say, 5 years

  • A nice return, say, 100% per year


Risk of loss
Risk of Loss

50% gone

in 4 years

7


Risk of loss1
Risk of Loss

Lose SOME or All money 1/3 of the time

Boring returns another 1/3 of the time

Make good money 1/3 of the time

Good Investors:

8



Example
Example

Exit

Sales

Break

Even


Another example
Another Example

Ten times too optimistic!

$ 1 million

$ 9 million


Rules of thumb
Rules of Thumb

  • Sales:

    • Small in Year One

    • Big jump to Year 2 – 4x? 5x? 10x?

    • Less big jump to Year 3 – 1.2 x? 1.5x?

    • 1x after to Year 4 and Year 5

  • Profits:

    • Lose a little in Year One, more in Year Two

    • Break even Year 3, then 


Example1
Example

Exit

Sales

Break

Even


Moral of this story
Moral of this Story

If you want/need investor money

  • You must deliver the return they need

  • So, start with the endgoal in mind

  • These are the numbers I need…

  • Can my business produce them?


Another example1
Another Example

Ten times too optimistic!

$ 1 million

$ 9 million


Projections
Projections

  • Build a detailed Year One

  • Review the “Rules of Thumb”

  • Apply them to Years 2-5

  • Then do a sanity check --

    • What assumptions do you need?

    • Are these doable?


Types of statements
Types of Statements

  • Income Statement

  • Balance Sheet

  • Sources and Uses of Funds

.





Income statement definitions
Income Statement Definitions

Revenues (Sales):

> $ value exchanged

> for products or services

Expenses:

> $ value of resources used

> to earn those revenues


Expenses
Expenses

Divide expenses into:

Direct Costs/Expenses

and

Indirect Costs/Expenses


Direct costs cost of goods sold

Direct Costs or “Cost of Goods Sold”

Costs of Making a Product/Service

Direct Costs = Cost of Goods Sold

Materials

Labor

Packaging

Inspection

Shipping

Customer Service

Revenues – Cost of Goods Sold

= Gross Profit


Indirect costs

Operating Expenses (Sales & Marketing, General & Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

Other Costs – to run the Company

Indirect Costs

Rent

Accounting

Insurance

Sales Expense

CEO

IT, HR, Legal, etc.

Gross Profit – Operating Costs

= EBITDA


Key measure for startups
Key Measure -- for Startups Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

EBITDA

Earnings Before Interest, Taxes,

Depreciation & Amortization

Measures -- earning power

E - BIT - DA

25


Net income loss
Net Income (Loss) Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

EBITDA minus:

  • Depreciation

  • Interest expense

  • Taxes

  • “One time events”


Why these categories
Why These Categories? Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)


Depreciation
Depreciation Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

Property, Plant & Equipment (Fixed Assets)

  • Long term assets of the company

  • Not for sale

  • Things that have or create value – over time


Examples of pp e
Examples of PP&E Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

Buildings

Factories

Vehicles

Equipment

Computers

Furniture


Depreciation1
Depreciation Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

  • Fixed Assets provide valueover time

  • Also, wear out over time

  • Depreciationspreads these costs

  • Over their useful life


Example2
Example: Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

A Company buys a wind turbine to generate its electricity. It pays $750,000 for the turbine.

It expects the turbine to:

  • Last for 25 years,

  • Wear out evenly, and

  • Then be worth $0


Example3
Example: Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

What is the “depreciation” of this asset?

  • $750,000/25 years = $30,000 year

  • $30,000 = annual depreciation expense

This is called: “straight line” depreciation


Depreciation2
Depreciation Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

33


Quick review
Quick Review Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

What Gets Depreciated?

Green Wind Co. sells and installs wind turbines for customers.

Are the following: Cost of Goods Sold, Operating Costs or Property, Plant & Equipment?

Delivery trucks?

Wind turbine?

Finance staff?

Installation?

Sales people?

Billing IT system?


Back to building projections
Back to Building Projections Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)


The details
The Details Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

  • Sales: Price? First sale? How do sales grow? What makes them grow?

  • Costs: What do you need to make the product? Sell it? Who will you hire? When? Do you buy ads? Make brochures?

  • More costs: Office rent? Costs of running it? Who does the hiring? How do you pay people? Health insurance?


Start big picture
Start “ Big Picture ” Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

> People ?

> Machines ?

> Advertising?

> Locations?

  • What are the key sales drivers ?


Example4
Example Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

> How many sales calls per month?

> Success rate of sales calls?

> Time till sale is completed?

> Average price of a sale?

  • Sales require a sales force


The Product Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

  • Fresh farmed tilapia fillets

  • “Seafood Safe” and Organic

  • 100% organic feed

  • Purified and filtered re-circulated water


Customers Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

  • Suppliers of restaurants, grocery & fish stores

  • Also, Trader Joe’s, Whole Foods


Quote from EcoFish: Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

“We will buy everything you have to sell.”


Think big picture
Think “ Big Picture ” Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

> Systems that grow fish

  • The Good Fish key sales driver:


Sales depend on Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”) “Pod Systems”

  • A Pod System produces 50,000 lbs fish/yr

  • Fresh organic tilapia sells for $5.63/lb

  • One Pod System in Year 1

  • Couple of months to get going

  • Couple of months to ramp up


First 12 month s projections
First 12 Month’s Projections Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

Do this for 12 months


First Year Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

35

197


Next step costs
Next Step -- Costs Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

Cost of Goods Sold – materials, labor, delivery, customer service

Operating costs – sales people, travel, ads, CEO, rent, supplies

  • Going forward, 12 months


Cost of Goods Sold Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

  • Baby fish

  • Facilities: Rent & heating

  • Feed: Organic vegetarian

  • Staff: Monitor, move, clean, fillet fish

  • Delivery to customers

  • Byproducts: Waste and offal


Operating (S,G&A) Costs Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

  • Sales person

  • List in organic seafood directories

  • Advertise with trade associations

  • Host events, tours, tastings

  • CEO, accounting, IT, office rent


Depreciation Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)– from Equipment purchases

  • “Pod System”

  • Filleting machine

  • $60,000 total

  • Lasts 10 years

  • (120 months)


Cost projections
Cost Projections Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

Do this for 12 months


Add up the First Year Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)


Moving forward
Moving Forward Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

  • First year projections – aim for accuracy

  • After that, it’s more “vision”

  • Apply the “rules of thumb”

  • Focus on meeting investor expectations

  • Then checking for sanity


Example timing of milestones
Example: Timing of Milestones Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

Exit

Sales

Break

Even


Next step pick a break even
Next Step: Pick A Break Even Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

How big must sales be?

Break

Even

Year

Can I cover my costs

with $3-4M in sales?


Break Even Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

15 pods


Then exit
Then, Exit Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

Exit


Exit Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)


And fill in the gaps
And, Fill in the Gaps Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

Fill in

Fill in


Fill in the Gaps Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)


Make a list
Make a List Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

Key assumptions that drive the model

  • How do your sales grow?

  • Costs?

  • People?

  • Key equipment?


Sanity check on year five
Sanity Check on Year Five Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

Find some comparable public companies

  • Look at gross and EBITDA margin

  • Cost ratios (S&M/Sales, G&A/Sales)

  • Sales per employee

    How do yours compare?

    Warning: they should not be better!


Example sanity check
Example: Sanity Check Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)


How Much $ Do We Need? Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)


$60k Pod Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)


Next building a balance sheet
Next – Building a Balance Sheet Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)


Good fish balance sheet as of 12 31 14

Assets Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

Cash 9.9

Accounts Receivable 32.7

Property & Equipment 60.0

Less Depreciation (6.0)

Other Assets 2.0

Total Assets $125.6

Liabilities

Accounts Payable 26.9

Accrued Expenses 24.4

Total Liabilities 51.3

Shareholders’ Equity

Common Stock 450.3

Retained Earnings (376)

Total Liabilities & Shareholders’ Equity $125.6

Good Fish Balance Sheet as of 12/31/14


Balance sheet
Balance Sheet Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

Assets =

Liabilities + Shareholders’ Equity


Balance sheet definitions
Balance Sheet Definitions Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

Assets:

> What the company owns

Liabilities & Shareholders’ Equity

> How the company pays for what it owns


Think about a house
Think about a House Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

Asset:the house

Liability: the mortgage

Shareholders’ Equity =

the “equity” in the house, or

value of the house - mortgage


Shareholders equity
Shareholders’ Equity Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

  • What the investors put in

    Plus

  • What the company makes (net income)

    Less

  • What investors take out (dividends)


Balance sheet more definitions
Balance Sheet: More Definitions Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

Accounts Receivable

What Customers Owe You

Accounts Payable

What You owe Suppliers

Accrued Expenses

What you owe non-suppliers

Inventory

Products in stock


Transfer income statement data
Transfer Income Statement Data Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

  • From Custom Projections

  • Into Model Template


Construct model formulas
Construct Model Formulas Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

Old Property Investments + New


Example balance sheet
Example -- Balance Sheet Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

From Balance Sheet Formulas

Loss


Sell some stock

Done ! Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

Sell Some Stock


Example year two
Example -- Year Two Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

From Balance Sheet Formulas

Loss


Sell more stock

Done ! Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

Sell More Stock


Exercise construct a balance sheet

How much $ do you need – now? Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

Exercise: Construct a Balance Sheet

  • Cash = 3% of sales

  • Customers pay in 30 days

  • You pay all expenses – in 15 days

  • You hold 2 months product, in stock

  • You need a 60K Pod, plus a 15K filleting machine


What you use the for
What You Use the $ For Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

  • List the key items (not exhaustive)

  • $5k items or more (good rule of thumb)

  • Show you have thought about it

  • Show you know what things cost


Example5
Example Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

Green Wind will use the $25k to:

  • Buy x equipment to build a demo (15k)

  • Attend y important industry event (5k)

  • Design and print sales brochures (5k)

What will you do to:

Show progress? Reduce Risk? Get more $?


Warning about projections
Warning about Projections Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

You are likely to be much too optimistic

> Things just take longer -- to happen

> Cost more than you think

> Under-estimate cash needed


Final advice
Final Advice Administrative, R&D or “S,G&A”)

  • Think through sales & expense detail

  • Remember all Cash Needs!

  • Be realistic, careful – in year one

  • Keep total year $ needs to $350k max

  • Explain how you will use the $

  • Come to Feb 21st session on writing & presentations!


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