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Areas of vulnerability for the European energy supplies Michael M. Gonchar NOMOS / Strategy XXI Sliač/Sielnica JUNE 20th, 2013. New areas of hydrocarbons potential around Europe and new energy flows and routes for XXI century:.

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Areas of vulnerability

for the European

energy supplies

Michael M. Gonchar

NOMOS / Strategy XXI

Sliač/Sielnica

JUNE 20th, 2013


New areas of hydrocarbons potential around europe and new energy flows and routes for xxi century
New areas of hydrocarbons potential around Europe and new energy flows and routesfor XXI century:

Central Asian and Caspian Areas (Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan)

Black Sea shelf (Ukraine, Romania, Turkey)

Eastern Europe (unconventional gas fields in Poland, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Lithuania)

Eastern Mediterranean (Turkey, Syria, Cyprus, Israel, Lebanon)

Arctic area (Norway, Russia, Canada, Denmark (Greenland))


Energy and transit sensitive areas with potential of non military and military tensions
Energy and transit sensitive areas with potential of non-military and military tensions

Arctic area;

Eastern Europe;

Black Sea;

Central Asia;

Caspian Sea;

S. Caucasus;

E. Mediterranean

Sakhara&Sakhel


I nstability in sakhel means crash strategic projects of energy supplies to eu
I non-military and military tensionsnstability in Sakhel means crash strategic projects of energy supplies to EU

EUMENA


Qatari gas for Europe non-military and military tensions(Doha vision): combined route Qatar – S. Arabia – Jordan – Syria gas pipeline (blue) + LNG tankers delivering instead long LNG tankers route around Arabian peninsula(red)

SYRIA


Russian energy resources in official documents and statements
Russian energy resources non-military and military tensionsin official documents and statements:

"Russia has significant reserves of energy resources and powerful fuel and energy complex that forms background for development of the economics and instruments of internal and foreign policies realization“ (Energy strategy of Russia till 2020, FirstEdition 2003)

“Russian oil and gas policy should be not just an important part, but also one of the main instruments of country’s foreign policy”

Special Presidential Envoy to Africa,

Head of the Council of Federation Committee

for Foreign Affairs Mikhail Margelov,

November 18, 2011 г.


The scheme of future gas streams in accordance with Russian dreams or all routes are in Gazprom’s hands

NORD STREAM

YAMAL-EUROPE

MAINSTREAM.UA

Hub Baumgarten

SOUTH STREAM

TANAP+NABUCCO


European dimension of Gazprom’s bypasses: dreams or all routes are in Gazprom’s handsSurplus of pipelines capacities from Russia is a challenge for stability of gas supply to Europe

Gazprom’s

export to Europe

–138 bcm in 2012

(<113 bcm physically).

Contracted gas

volumes (LTC)

for 2020-2025

~158 bcma

Surplus:

142 / 230 bcma


Trans caspian gas pipeline
Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline: dreams or all routes are in Gazprom’s hands

  • Russia plans to strengthen the Caspian Flotilla as well as with "Bastion" shore-based missile complexes, attack aircrafts. In 2013 it will be reinforced by 5 combat ships.

Blue Fuel, GazpromExport Magazine:«The construction of this pipeline would mean to spit in the face of Russia and the real risk may be that of a military conflict, in front of which Russia will not pull back“

Institute of CIS Countries(RF):

"After what NATO did in Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, there are no any restraining barriers ... against Russia's use of force in the Caspian“


Future gas supplies to lithuania and ukraine are under risk of interruptions
Future gas supplies to Lithuania dreams or all routes are in Gazprom’s handsand Ukraine are under risk of interruptions

According to order dated November 2012

Kaliningrad interconnector has to be built

Yamal Europe - II

According to order dated April 2013

Possible interruptions


Euro arctic hydrocarbon resources promised to be 82 mtoe from 140 mtoe of all arctic resources
Euro-Arctic hydrocarbon resources promised to be: dreams or all routes are in Gazprom’s hands82 Mtoe from 140 Mtoe of all arctic resources

OIL

GAS

After 2050 the hydrocarbon exploration in the Arctic could be no less important than the Persian Golf, North Africa, the North Sea and the West Siberia are today


Priorities of foreign and military policy of russia decrees on 7 may 2012
Priorities of foreign and military policy dreams or all routes are in Gazprom’s hands of Russia (Decrees on 7 May 2012)

Establishing of the Eurasian Economic Union by 2015

Strengthening of the Tashkent Pact (CSTO)

Making the maritime borders of the continental shelf, including in the Arctic

Strengthening the Navy in the Arctic and the Far East


Arctic borders is a box of pandora
Arctic borders is a box of Pandora dreams or all routes are in Gazprom’s hands

Russian

Arctic

dreams


Arctic ambitious of russia
Arctic ambitious of Russia dreams or all routes are in Gazprom’s hands

Institute for Political and Military Analysis of the RF:

“Russia must begin the exploitation of the hydrocarbons on the shelf areas, which it consider to be its own”

Increase of the icebreaker fleet (actual 6 nuclear + 2 diesel-electric) on 1 nuclear icebreakeruntil 2016.

Formation of the Arctic Command and the group of forces with a strength of 10-12 thousandspeopleduring 2016-2010

The Arctic Forces:

Murmansk (Marine Corps Regiment),

Pechenga (Mechanized Infantry Brigade)

Severomorsk (2 brigades of combat ships)


Reinforcement of the dreams or all routes are in Gazprom’s hands

Northern Fleet

of the RF

by two Mistral

Advanced adaptation

of equipment and special

forces to the Arctic conditions

Enhancement

of reconnaissance in

the Arctic region


Some conclusions
SOME CONCLUSIONS dreams or all routes are in Gazprom’s hands

  • More cooperation between NATO and EU concerning Security of Supply and Russian influences in the CEE Region is needed

  • More NATO’s attention to C.Asia – Caspian Region - S.Caucasus – Black Sea chain is needed

  • More attention to foreign activity of energy giants (Qatar, S.Arabia, Iran, Iraq etc.) and new big consumers (China, India) in Africa

  • Arctic Forces Capacity Building development in the NATO framework


Thank you for your attention

Thank you for dreams or all routes are in Gazprom’s handsyour attention!

NOMOS / Strategy XXI

http://geostrategy.org.ua

www.nomos.com.ua

[email protected]


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