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Campaigns and Elections

Campaigns and Elections. Candidates. “self-starters” vs. recruited by parties Motivation Profile. Changing campaign styles. More personalized Less reliant on organization More expensive More professionals, less volunteers. “Stump Speaking” by George Caleb Bingham – c. 1830s.

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Campaigns and Elections

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  1. Campaigns and Elections

  2. Candidates • “self-starters” vs. recruited by parties • Motivation • Profile

  3. Changing campaign styles • More personalized • Less reliant on organization • More expensive • More professionals, less volunteers

  4. “Stump Speaking” by George Caleb Bingham – c. 1830s

  5. Warren Harding’s Front Porch Campaign – Mass Media Election, 1920

  6. Harry Truman’s Whistle Stop Campaign, 1948

  7. Television Campaign Ads Are the biggest part of spending in modern campaigns. • They can be designed to promote a candidate in a number of ways: • Present a biography – Introduce the candidate • Claim accomplishments/record • Compare to other candidates • Respond to other ads An example: Ronald Reagan’s “Morning in America” (1984) Into which category does this fall? LBJ Daisy (1964)

  8. Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary dominate early political news coverage

  9. Primaries • Closed • Open • Blanket • Run-off

  10. Caucus

  11. 1860 GOP Convention

  12. The Convention • Presidential candidates have been nominated by the convention method in every election since 1832. • Seating the Delegates. • Convention Activities. • Speech making • Platform formulation • Presidential Balloting • Acceptance Speeches • Becoming less relevant

  13. Campaign Finance Terminology Hard money Soft money Air war Ground war Political Action Committees (PACs) Harry & Louise Issue Ad 527 Groups (or Committees) If Parents Acted Like Bush

  14. Regulations • Hatch Act (1939) • Federal Election Campaign Act (1974) • McCain-Feingold (2002)

  15. (Historical) Legal Regulations on Registration • Poll Tax • Literacy Test • Requiring re-registration at periodic intervals • Purging for nonvoting • Residency requirements • Closing date for registration • Office hours for registration may be limited to regular business hours • Registration offices can be limited or widely available • Deputy registrars • Absentee registration

  16. Wolfinger & Rosenstone’s Hypotheses • Hypotheses • Consequential restrictions • Reforms suggested

  17. Voter turnout

  18. Electoral Law • Most states require registration • Elections occur on a Tuesday • Votes must be cast in the assigned precinct during polling hours • Absentee ballots need to be requested in advance • Elections are SMDP

  19. Machinery of Elections

  20. How voters decide • Socio-economic and demographic factors • Education • Income/socio-economic status • Religion • Ethnicity/Race* • Gender • Age • Region • Psychological factors • Party identification* • Perception of the candidates in terms of image and trustworthiness • Issue preferences, especially on economic issues

  21. Party ID measured on a seven-point scale

  22. Cartogram of Electoral College Votes

  23. The Electoral Map – 10/15 (Time)

  24. 2004 Results – State Level Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

  25. 2004 Results – State (pop adj) Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

  26. 2004 Results – State (EC adj) Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

  27. 2004 Results – County Level Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

  28. 2004 Results – County Level (pop adj) Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

  29. 2004 Results – County (intensity) Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

  30. 2004 Results – County (intensity, pop) Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

  31. Caveat: Sometimes the polls are wrong

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