Figure 1 24 year risk equivalent of 100 year probability of extinction
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FIGURE 1. 24-year risk-equivalent of 100-year probability of extinction PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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probability of extinction in “T” years. Risk 147 = 1 - [1-Risk 100 ] 1.47. 100%. Risk 100 = 1 - [1- Risk 24 ] 4.167. FIGURE 1. 24-year risk-equivalent of 100-year probability of extinction. Risk 147. 50%. Risk 100. Risk 24. ω = policy choice (acceptable risk). 0. .26. .52. .78.

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FIGURE 1. 24-year risk-equivalent of 100-year probability of extinction

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Figure 1 24 year risk equivalent of 100 year probability of extinction

probability of extinction in “T” years

Risk147 = 1 - [1-Risk100]1.47

100%

Risk100 = 1 - [1-Risk24]4.167

FIGURE 1. 24-year risk-equivalent of 100-year probability of extinction

Risk147

50%

Risk100

Risk24

ω = policy choice

(acceptable risk)

0

.26

.52

.78

Coin flip (.89)

1.00

highly viable

maintenance

viable


Figure 2 integration of ictrt viability bpa short term risk

current /desired status

extinction risk

1.00

“prospective” actions

“historic” ocean

FIGURE 2. Integration of ICTRT “viability” & BPA “short-term” risk

Risk147

“current “ actions

“recent” ocean

.50

Risk100

environmental “baseline”

“pessimistic” ocean

Risk24

1.00

.26

.52

.78

0

coin flip (.89)

highly viable

maintenance

viable

Policy choice: What level of extinction risk is acceptable?


Figure 3 doing the math is easy and fun qet 50

BPA … “short-term” extinction

Risk24 = 1 - [1-Risk100].24

  • LIFE-CYCLE SURVIVAL (LCS)

  • IMPROVEMENTS

  • m = 1, … M “all-H” impacts

  • 𝜫(Sm ) = “base” or “current” LCS

  • 𝜫(𝒮m) = “prospective” LCS

ICTRT … “viability criteria”

Risk100 = 1 - [1-Risk24]4.167

FIGURE 3: Doing “The Math” is easy and fun! (QET=50)

TRIBES … “7 generations”

Risk147 = 1 - [1-Risk100]1.47

EXTINCTION RISKS

(going forward)

ω* = {[𝜫(Sm/𝒮m) – α ]/β}1/2

ACCEPTABLE RISK … scaled (0,1)

ω = {1 – .1609 log(Risk)}

THE GAP … current vs. desired status (revisited)

[1+Gapx]-1 = α+βω2

… a lot is left to chance and

acceptance of that risk forms

the heart of the controversy

- Judge Marsh, 1997


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