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35 th Conference on Radar Meteorology 30 September 2011. Analysis of forecast improvement from radar-data assimilation within RUC, Rapid Refresh and HRRR models. GSD – Assimilation and Modeling Branch.

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Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

35th Conference on Radar Meteorology30 September 2011

Analysis of forecast improvement

from radar-data assimilation

within RUC, Rapid Refresh and HRRR models

GSD – Assimilation and Modeling Branch

Steve Weygandt, Curtis Alexander, Ming Hu, Patrick Hofmann, Eric James, Haidao Lin, Tanya Smirnova, David Dowell, Stan Benjamin, John Brown


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models

Rapid Refresh (RR)

replaces RUC at NCEP in 2011

WRF, GSI with RUC features

13km Rapid Refresh (mesoscale)

13km RUC (mesoscale)

3km HRRR (storm-scale)

RUC – current oper

Model, new 18h fcst

every hour

High-Resolution

Rapid Refresh

Experimental 3km nest inside RR, new 15-h fcst every hour


Noaa esrl gsd amb models

NOAA/ESRL/GSD/AMB Models


Models at noaa esrl gsd amb

Models at NOAA/ESRL/GSD/AMB

RR physics behavior similar to RUC – good for aviation, convective environment , surface and sensible weather

NCEP upgrade from RUC to RR will provides more

advanced model and analysis components

- WRF-ARW: advanced numerics, non-hydrostatic

- GSI: advanced satellite DA, 4DVAR/EnKF development

- Both community-based, ongoing code contributions


Background goals

Background / Goals

  • “Radar-DFI” assimilation procedure in NCEP RUC sinceNov. 2008  improved fcsts precip systems

  • Radar-DFIin GSD RR since 2008, RR to replace

  • RUC at NCEP late 2011

  • Hourly CONUS HRRR nest in RUC since 2008

  •  HRRR benefitted from RUC radar-DFI

  • HRRR switched to run as nest within RR (with RR radar-DFI) in April 2011.

  • HRRR run in real-time to support CoSPA, SPC, NWS regions, renewable energy

  •  Quantify radar DFI impact on RUC, RR

  • and HRRR nests for summer-time convection

  •  Establish baseline for more sophisticated radar assimilation efforts


Rapid refresh hourly cycle observations

Rapid Refresh Hourly Cycle / Observations

Hourly updating using all available observations

Data types used

Rawinsonde (balloons)

Wind Profilers (405 MHz, 915 MHz)

RASS virtual temperatures

VAD winds (WSR-88D radars)

Aircraft (ACARS, TAMDAR)

Surface (METAR, Buoy, Mesonet)

Precipitable water (GPS, GOES, SSM/I)

GOES cloud-drift winds

GOES cloud-top pressure/temp

Radar reflectivity, lightning

Ship reports/dropsondes

Satellite radiances (RR)

1-hr

fcst

1-hr

fcst

1-hr

fcst

Back-

ground

Fields

Analysis

Fields

3DVAR

3DVAR

Obs

Obs

Time

(UTC)

11 12 13


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

Spring 2011 Hourly HRRR Initialization from RR

15-h fcst

15-h fcst

Hourly

HRRR

Interp to 3 km grid

Lateral

Boundary

Conditions

Interp to 3 km grid

18-h fcst

18-h fcst

Use 1-h

old LBC

to reduce

latency

Initial Condition

Fields

18-h fcst

Use most

recent IC

(post-DFI)

to get latest

radar info

1-hr

fcst

DDFI

DDFI

1-hr

fcst

1-hr

fcst

Back-

ground

Fields

Analysis

Fields

Reduced

Latency:

~2h for 2011

Hourly

RR

3DVAR

3DVAR

Obs

Obs

Time

(UTC)

11 z 12 z 13 z


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

Radar reflectivity assimilation

Digital Filter-based reflectivity assimilation

initializes ongoing precipitation regions

-20 min -10 min Initial +10 min + 20 min

Backwards integration,

no physics

Forward integration,full physics with radar-based latent heating

Initial fields with improved balance, storm-scale circulation

RUC / RR HRRR model forecast


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

Radar reflectivity assimilation

Digital Filter-based reflectivity assimilation

initializes ongoing precipitation regions

-20 min -10 min Initial +10 min + 20 min

Backwards integration,

no physics

Forward integration,full physics with radar-based latent heating

Initial fields with improved balance, storm-scale circulation

RUC / RR HRRR model forecast

No precipitation hydrometeor specification*

+ RUC/RR Convection suppression


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

Diabatic Digital Filter Initialization

Reduce noise in RUC and Rapid Refresh

Noise parameter


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

Rapid Refresh (GSI + ARW) reflectivity assimilation example

Upper-level

Divergence

Low-level

Convergence

NSSL radar

reflectivity (dBZ)

K=17 U-comp. diff

(radar - norad)

K=4 U-comp. diff

(radar - norad)

14z 22 Oct 2008

Z = 3 km


Issues questions

Issues / Questions

  • No cycling on the 3-km HRRR grid,

  • must “spin-up storms within each run

  • followed by accelerated storm evolution

  • “match” with real-world evolution depends on stage of actual storm evolution

  • How effective is cycled “radar-DFI” procedure applied on mesoscale grid?

  • -- for mesoscale “parent” grid?

  • -- for storm-scale “child” grid?

  • How does parameterized convection on parent grid impact evolution of storm-scale model?

  • Similarities / difference RUC-HRRR vs. RR-HRRR?


Issues questions1

Issues / Questions

  • To what degree is storm evolution controlled

  • by mesoscale vs. storm-scale forcing?

  • Highly variable based on regime,

  • but mesoscale forcing is very significant

  • -- We don’t accurately observe or predict mesoscale

  • mesoscale forcing == high predictability

  • -- Strong mesoscale forcing does imply reduced impact from radar data assimilation, unless

    • assimilated radar data improves mesoscale fields (cold pools, low-level wind fields, etc.)


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

R/T-Retro Experiment Weather

NO radar

assimilation

RUC -- HRRR

RETROSPECTIVE

RR -- HRRR

YES radar

assimilation

RUC

REAL-TIME

RR

Aug

2011

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

R/T-Retro Experiment Weather

NO radar

assimilation

RUC -- HRRR

RETROSPECTIVE

RR -- HRRR

YES radar

assimilation

RUC

REAL-TIME

RR

Aug

2011

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

R/T-Retro Experiment Weather

NO radar

assimilation

RUC -- HRRR

RETROSPECTIVE

RR -- HRRR

YES radar

assimilation

Every 2 hours

Every 1 hour

RUC -- HRRR

REAL-TIME

RR -- HRRR

Aug

2011

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

R/T-Retro Experiment Weather

NO radar

assimilation

RUC

RETROSPECTIVE

RR

YES radar

assimilation

Every 2 hours

Every 1 hour

RUC -- HRRR

REAL-TIME

RR -- HRRR

Aug

2011

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

R/T-Retro Experiment Weather

NO radar

assimilation

RUC -- HRRR

RETROSPECTIVE

RR -- HRRR

YES radar

assimilation

Every 2 hours

Every 1 hour

RUC -- HRRR

REAL-TIME

RR -- HRRR

Aug

2011

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

R/T-Retro Experiment Weather

00z 13 Aug

02z 12 Aug

NO radar

assimilation

RUC -- HRRR

RETROSPECTIVE

RR -- HRRR

YES radar

assimilation

Every 2 hours

Every 1 hour

RUC -- HRRR

REAL-TIME

RR -- HRRR

Aug

2011

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

R/T-Retro Experiment Weather

22z 13 Aug

00z 13 Aug

02z 12 Aug

NO radar

assimilation

RUC -- HRRR

RETROSPECTIVE

RR -- HRRR

YES radar

assimilation

Every 2 hours

Every 1 hour

RUC -- HRRR

REAL-TIME

RR -- HRRR

Aug

2011

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

R/T-Retro Experiment Weather

22z 13 Aug

00z 15 Aug

00z 13 Aug

14z 14 Aug

02z 12 Aug

NO radar

assimilation

RUC -- HRRR

RETROSPECTIVE

RR -- HRRR

YES radar

assimilation

Every 2 hours

Every 1 hour

RUC -- HRRR

REAL-TIME

RR -- HRRR

Aug

2011

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

R/T-Retro Experiment Weather

22z 13 Aug

00z 15 Aug

00z 13 Aug

14z 14 Aug

02z 12 Aug

04z 19 Aug

20z

19 Aug

NO radar

assimilation

RUC -- HRRR

RETROSPECTIVE

RR -- HRRR

YES radar

assimilation

Every 2 hours

Every 1 hour

RUC -- HRRR

REAL-TIME

RR -- HRRR

Aug

2011

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

“neighborhood” verification of 6-h

forecasts from 3-km HRRR

verification:10 June – 26 Sept 2010

80-km

25 dBZ

6-h fcst

40-km

20-km

3-km

valid (GMT)

valid (EDT)

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

8p 10p 12 2a 4a 6a 8a 10a 12 2p 4p 6p


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

“neighborhood” verification of 6-h

forecasts from 3-km HRRR

verification:10 June – 26 Sept 2010

80-km

25 dBZ

6-h fcst

Convective

Initiation

period

40-km

Initiation

20-km

3-km

valid (GMT)

valid (EDT)

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

8p 10p 12 2a 4a 6a 8a 10a 12 2p 4p 6p


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

Convective

Decay

period

“neighborhood” verification of 6-h

forecasts from 3-km HRRR

verification:10 June – 26 Sept 2010

80-km

25 dBZ

6-h fcst

Convective

Initiation

period

40-km

Initiation

Decay

20-km

3-km

valid (GMT)

valid (EDT)

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

8p 10p 12 2a 4a 6a 8a 10a 12 2p 4p 6p


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

Convective

Decay

period

“neighborhood” verification of 6-h

forecasts from 3-km HRRR

verification:10 June – 26 Sept 2010

80-km

25 dBZ

6-h fcst

Convective

Initiation

period

40-km

Initiation

Decay

Transition

20-km

3-km

valid (GMT)

valid (EDT)

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

8p 10p 12 2a 4a 6a 8a 10a 12 2p 4p 6p


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

R/T-Retro Experiment Configuration

also RUC RR

HRRR HRRR

RUC

RR

YES radar assim

NO radar assim

Mostly compare RUC-HRRR vs. RR-HRRR (w/ and w/o radar)

Also compare RUC and RR (w/ and w/o radar assimilation)

Reflectivity and precipitation verification (also upper-air, surface)


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

R/T-Retro Experiment Configuration

also RUC RR

HRRR HRRR

RUC

RR

YES radar assim

NO radar assim

Mostly compare RUC-HRRR vs. RR-HRRR (w/ and w/o radar)

Also compare RUC and RR (w/ and w/o radar assimilation)

Reflectivity and precipitation verification (also upper-air, surface)

Initial Hydrometeor specification:

RUC – No precipitation hydrometeor specification

0-h RUC-HRRR reflectivity from 1-h RUC explicit hydrometeors

RR – Specify snow hydrometeors only

0-h RR-HRRR reflectivity from 1-h RR explicit HMs + radar snow


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

CSI

(x 100)

Rapid Refresh

vs. RUC

Precipitation

Verification

RR

radar

RR

no radar

RUC

radar

RUC

no radar

13-km Eastern US

Matched comparison

2 X 12 hr fcst

vs. CPC 24-h analysis

11 – 21 Aug. 2011

All init times

Threshold

| | | | | | |

0.01 0.10 0.25 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 in.

RR

radar

RR

no radar

100

(1.0)

  • Radar assim improves precip CSIs scores, but also increases bias

RUC

radar

bias

(x 100)

RUC

no radar

| | | | | | |

0.01 0.10 0.25 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 in.


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

CSI

(x 100)

“parent”

vs. “child”

Reflectivity

Verification

RR-HRRR

radar

RR-HRRR

no radar

RR

radar

RR

no radar

25 dBZ 13-km

Eastern US

Matched Comparison

12,13,14,19 Aug. 2011

All init times

| | | | | | |

0-h 2-h 4-h 6-h 8-h 10-h 12-h

Forecast Lead Time

CSI

(x 100)

RUC-HRRR

radar

  • 3-km fcsts improve upon parent 13-km forecasts

  • radar assim adds skill at both 13-km and 3-km

RUC

radar

RUC-HRRR

no radar

RUC

no radar

| | | | | | |

0-h 2-h 4-h 6-h 8-h 10-h 12-h


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

CSI

(x 100)

RUC-HRRR

vs. RR-HRRR

Reflectivity

Verification

RUC-HRRR

radar

RR-HRRR

radar

RR-HRRR

no radar

Eastern US, 25 dBZ

13-km CSI

3-km bias

Matched Comparison

12,13,14,19 Aug. 2011

All init times

RUC-HRRR

no radar

| | | | | | |

0-h 2-h 4-h 6-h 8-h 10-h 12-h

Forecast Lead Time

RR-HRRR

radar

RR-HRRR

no radar

  • Radar assim improves precip CSIs scores, but also increases bias

100

(1.0)

RUC-HRRR

radar

bias

(x 100)

RUC-HRRR

no radar

| | | | | | |

0-h 2-h 4-h 6-h 8-h 10-h 12-h


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

18z inits

CSI for different

Initialization times

00z inits

RUC-HRRR

radar

RR-HRRR

radar

RUC-HRRR

no radar

RR-HRRR

no radar

18z

00z

06z

00z

06z

12z

| | | | | | |

0-h 2-h 4-h 6-h 8-h 10-h 12-h

| | | | | | |

0-h 2-h 4-h 6-h 8-h 10-h 12-h

Forecast Lead Time

Forecast Lead Time

06z inits

12z inits

06z

12z

18z

12z

18z

00z

| | | | | | |

0-h 2-h 4-h 6-h 8-h 10-h 12-h

| | | | | | |

0-h 2-h 4-h 6-h 8-h 10-h 12-h


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

RUC

HRRR

RADAR

RR

HRRR

RADAR

01z 13 Aug 2011

00z init

RR

HRRR

no radar

NSSL mosaic

RUC

HRRR

no radar


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

RUC

HRRR

RADAR

RR

HRRR

RADAR

CSI scores

01z 13 Aug 2011

00z init

RR

HRRR

no radar

0h 2h 4h 6h 8h

NSSL mosaic

RUC

HRRR

no radar


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

RUC

HRRR

RADAR

RR

HRRR

RADAR

00z + 1 hr fcsts

01z 13 Aug 2011

RUC

HRRR

no radar

RR

HRRR

no radar

NSSL mosaic


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

RUC

HRRR

RADAR

00z initialization

00z 13 Aug 2011

NSSL mosaic


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

RUC

HRRR

RADAR

RR

HRRR

RADAR

00z initialization

00z 13 Aug 2011

RR

HRRR

no radar

NSSL mosaic

RUC

HRRR

no radar


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

RUC

HRRR

RADAR

RR

HRRR

RADAR

00z initialization

00z 13 Aug 2011

RR

HRRR

no radar

NSSL mosaic

RUC

HRRR

no radar


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

RR

HRRR

RADAR

RUC

HRRR

RADAR

NSSL mosaic

00z initialization

00z 13 Aug 2011

RR

HRRR

no radar

RUC

HRRR

no radar


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

RUC

HRRR

RADAR

RR

HRRR

RADAR

00z + 1 hr fcsts

01z 13 Aug 2011

RUC

HRRR

no radar

RR

HRRR

no radar

NSSL mosaic


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

RUC

HRRR

RADAR

RR

HRRR

RADAR

00z + 2 hr fcsts

02z 13 Aug 2011

RUC

HRRR

no radar

RR

HRRR

no radar

NSSL mosaic


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

RUC

HRRR

RADAR

RR

HRRR

RADAR

NSSL mosaic

00z + 4 hr fcsts

04z 13 Aug 2011

RUC

HRRR

no radar

RR

HRRR

no radar


Gsd assimilation and modeling branch

RUC

HRRR

RADAR

RR

HRRR

RADAR

NSSL mosaic

00z + 6 hr fcsts

06z 13 Aug 2011

RUC

HRRR

no radar

RR

HRRR

no radar


Conclusions and future work

Conclusions and future work

  • “Radar-DFI” in mesoscale model improves mesoscale model precipitation and nested storm- scale reflectivity forecasts

  • Results very similar for RUC-HRRR, RR-HRRR

  • Radar-DFI focuses mesocale convective areas, suggestion of indirect convective suppression

  • Radar data impact quite case dependent,

  • strong diurnal aspect with little retention across mid-day convective minimum

  • RR-HRRR convects more easily than RUC-HRRR, HRRR has difficulty propagating leading convective lines for both RR and RUC fields, especially for strongly capped environments

  • Limitations to non-cycled 3-km forecasts


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