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The New Normal

The New Normal. For Public Television. David J. LeRoy Judith M. LeRoy. Was This Our Dad? “Old Values?”. A man should work. A man should maintain his property. A man should know his tools, and how to use them. A man should meet his obligations. A man should stand on his own two feet.

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The New Normal

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  1. The New Normal For Public Television David J. LeRoy Judith M. LeRoy

  2. Was This Our Dad? “Old Values?” • A man should work. • A man should maintain his property. • A man should know his tools, and how to use them. • A man should meet his obligations. • A man should stand on his own two feet. • A man shouldn’t complain.

  3. The Law of Disruption • “technology changes exponentially, but social, economic, and legal systems change incrementally” • It sometimes takes generations to work things out. • Larry Downes The Laws of Disruption

  4. The New Normal -- Economics • New economic facts of life • Employer/employee assumptions • Toxic tsunamis – foreclosures • Pensions, retirement, safety nets • Unemployment at new highs.

  5. The New Normal -- Media • Newspapers are dire straits • And magazines… • Remember the CD --OMG Susan Boyle • And the Walkman replaced by MP3 etc • And now the Internet from dial up to ALWAYS ON!!!

  6. The New Normal -- Convergence • Television would be wiped out like radio • Everything up on the cloud… • Oops • Television viewing has increased and continues to grow… • It was not a zero sum game people just add more media minutes to their day

  7. The New Normal -- Broadcasting • Almost nine out of ten homes are wired • The number of available channels are in the hundreds • Legacy channels have lost audience • And soon we will have Internet streaming • May you live in interesting times

  8. The New Normal – Tale of 2 Tails • Lot of the viewing disappeared into the long tail… • But remember there is also a fat tail where the networks still get lots of viewing • Now for a new normal from ESPN … you can’t make this stuff up.

  9. The New Normal – Public Media • Now for Public Television… eroding cumes, eroding GRPs, eroding member base… • Do we need hits like the Antiques Roadshow? 2/3 only view it, nothing else • The “core” that views prime time has about 15 hours of programming a week.

  10. The Old Mechanical Model

  11. The New Normal – Program Norms • Consider how much TV programming has changed in the last 20 years. • Discovery now has to edit the BBC material because its narrative arcs are too long. The new Sherlock anyone? • The core now spends less time with PTV than a generation ago (25% vs 12% of their viewing time).

  12. The New Normal • Pledge drives… have they, perhaps, worn a bit thin? • Which of our assumptions about the audience and members are still true? • If you keep doing what your doing, you’ll keep getting what you been getting

  13. Last Touch Point Fallacy • We often think the last touch point before pledging is the cause of the behavior • The law of disruption at work

  14. Working with the New Normal • How do we strategize for the new normal? • How has the new normal affected viewing and fundraising, especially pledge? • How do we test our assumptions? • That’s what this meeting is all about.

  15. fin

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