Outlook for CIS Iron Ore Market
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Outlook for CIS Iron Ore Market Andrey Kuzmin Head of Raw Materials Department Metal Courier CIS Raw Materials in World Markets 15 -16 November 2006, Moscow. The main points of presentation CIS domestic market structure CIS iron ore export structure Iron ore consumption and export forecasts.

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Outlook for CIS Iron Ore MarketAndrey KuzminHead of Raw Materials DepartmentMetal CourierCIS Raw Materials in World Markets15-16 November 2006, Moscow


The main points of presentation

  • CIS domestic market structure

  • CIS iron ore export structure

  • Iron ore consumptionand export forecasts


CIS Production and Domestic Iron Ore Supplies, Mt

2006Iron OreProduction:180.6 Mt2006DomesticMarket: 133.2 Mt

26%

24%

25%

21%


Concentrate Shipments by CIS Producers, Mt

2006Concentrate Shipments:85.1 Mt2003Concentrate Shipments:77.4 Mt

14%

13%

11%

11%


Pellets Shipments by CIS Producers, Mt

2006PelletsShipments:63.2 Mt2003PelletsShipments:52.1 Mt

40%

31%

38%

27%


Sintering Ore Shipments by CIS Producers, Mt

2006Sintering OreShipments:18.6 Mt2003Sintering OreShipments:17.6 Mt

40%

42%

38%

40%


Iron ore self-sufficiency rate of

CIS steelmakers


Consolidation of Russian Iron Ore Market

Concentrate

Pellets


Consolidation of Ukrainian Iron Ore Market

Sintering Ore

Concentrate

Pellets


CIS Iron Ore Export Structure, Mt

2006Iron Ore

Export:44.1 Mt2003Iron Ore

Export:29.5 Mt


Major Markets for CIS exporters


Russia and Ukraine in Eastern European Market

POLAND

7.1 Mt

CZECH REP.

7.5 Mt

SLOVAKIA

6.5 Mt

HUNGARY

1.4 Mt

ROMANIA

2.5 Mt

SERBIA

2.3 Mt

BULGARIA

0.6 Mt

Russia

Total export – 19.5 Mt

incl. to Eastern Europe – 13.2 Mt

Ukraine

Total export – 20.2 Mt

incl. to Eastern Europe – 14.6 Mt

Eastern Europe Iron

Ore Import

Eastern Europe Iron Ore Import

Structure in 2006

- Others

- Ukraine

- Russia


Chinese Iron Ore Import

2006Iron Ore Import:325-330Mt2005Iron Ore Import: 275 Mt


CIS Iron Ore Export Structure, Mt

2006Iron Ore

Export:44.1 Mt2003Iron Ore

Export:29.5 Mt


Prospects for CIS iron ore producers are not very promising

  • CIS domestic iron ore demand will show only sluggish growth

  • In the coming 5 years world major iron ore producers will increase production of high-grade material substantially

  • Consolidation in steel and mining industries will lead to increase of long-term iron-ore contract market. So, the volume of spot market where CIS suppliers are most active may go down

  • Steel industry consolidation in Eastern Europe will force out CIS suppliers


Important issues for CIS mining companies to survive

To survive, CIS mining companies will have to:

  • increase product quality

  • expand transport infrastructure with regard to export


Steel Production in Russia is a Major Raw

Materials Consumption driver, Mt


Steel Production Structure in Russia, Mt

2010

2005


Pig Iron Production in CIS, Mt


HBI Production in CIS, Mt


Forecasts of Pellets Export from Russia, Mt


Metal Expert

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welcome to

our international web-site

www.metalexpert-group.com

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