Outlook for CIS Iron Ore Market
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Outlook for CIS Iron Ore Market Andrey Kuzmin Head of Raw Materials Department Metal Courier CIS Raw Materials in World Markets 15 -16 November 2006, Moscow. The main points of presentation CIS domestic market structure CIS iron ore export structure Iron ore consumption and export forecasts.

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The main points of presentation cis domestic market structure cis iron ore export structure

Outlook for CIS Iron Ore MarketAndrey KuzminHead of Raw Materials DepartmentMetal CourierCIS Raw Materials in World Markets15-16 November 2006, Moscow


The main points of presentation cis domestic market structure cis iron ore export structure

The main points of presentation

  • CIS domestic market structure

  • CIS iron ore export structure

  • Iron ore consumptionand export forecasts


2006 iron ore production 180 6 mt 2006 domestic market 133 2 mt

CIS Production and Domestic Iron Ore Supplies, Mt

2006Iron OreProduction:180.6 Mt2006DomesticMarket: 133.2 Mt

26%

24%

25%

21%


2006 concentrate shipments 85 1 mt 2003 concentrate shipments 77 4 mt

Concentrate Shipments by CIS Producers, Mt

2006Concentrate Shipments:85.1 Mt2003Concentrate Shipments:77.4 Mt

14%

13%

11%

11%


2006 pellets shipments 63 2 mt 2003 pellets shipments 52 1 mt

Pellets Shipments by CIS Producers, Mt

2006PelletsShipments:63.2 Mt2003PelletsShipments:52.1 Mt

40%

31%

38%

27%


2006 sintering ore shipments 18 6 mt 2003 sintering ore shipments 17 6 mt

Sintering Ore Shipments by CIS Producers, Mt

2006Sintering OreShipments:18.6 Mt2003Sintering OreShipments:17.6 Mt

40%

42%

38%

40%


The main points of presentation cis domestic market structure cis iron ore export structure

Iron ore self-sufficiency rate of

CIS steelmakers


The main points of presentation cis domestic market structure cis iron ore export structure

Consolidation of Russian Iron Ore Market

Concentrate

Pellets


The main points of presentation cis domestic market structure cis iron ore export structure

Consolidation of Ukrainian Iron Ore Market

Sintering Ore

Concentrate

Pellets


The main points of presentation cis domestic market structure cis iron ore export structure

CIS Iron Ore Export Structure, Mt

2006Iron Ore

Export:44.1 Mt2003Iron Ore

Export:29.5 Mt


The main points of presentation cis domestic market structure cis iron ore export structure

Major Markets for CIS exporters


Russia and ukraine in eastern european market

Russia and Ukraine in Eastern European Market

POLAND

7.1 Mt

CZECH REP.

7.5 Mt

SLOVAKIA

6.5 Mt

HUNGARY

1.4 Mt

ROMANIA

2.5 Mt

SERBIA

2.3 Mt

BULGARIA

0.6 Mt

Russia

Total export – 19.5 Mt

incl. to Eastern Europe – 13.2 Mt

Ukraine

Total export – 20.2 Mt

incl. to Eastern Europe – 14.6 Mt

Eastern Europe Iron

Ore Import

Eastern Europe Iron Ore Import

Structure in 2006

- Others

- Ukraine

- Russia


The main points of presentation cis domestic market structure cis iron ore export structure

Chinese Iron Ore Import

2006Iron Ore Import:325-330Mt2005Iron Ore Import: 275 Mt


The main points of presentation cis domestic market structure cis iron ore export structure

CIS Iron Ore Export Structure, Mt

2006Iron Ore

Export:44.1 Mt2003Iron Ore

Export:29.5 Mt


Prospects for cis iron ore producers are not very promising

Prospects for CIS iron ore producers are not very promising

  • CIS domestic iron ore demand will show only sluggish growth

  • In the coming 5 years world major iron ore producers will increase production of high-grade material substantially

  • Consolidation in steel and mining industries will lead to increase of long-term iron-ore contract market. So, the volume of spot market where CIS suppliers are most active may go down

  • Steel industry consolidation in Eastern Europe will force out CIS suppliers


Important issues for cis mining companies to survive

Important issues for CIS mining companies to survive

To survive, CIS mining companies will have to:

  • increase product quality

  • expand transport infrastructure with regard to export


The main points of presentation cis domestic market structure cis iron ore export structure

Steel Production in Russia is a Major Raw

Materials Consumption driver, Mt


The main points of presentation cis domestic market structure cis iron ore export structure

Steel Production Structure in Russia, Mt

2010

2005


The main points of presentation cis domestic market structure cis iron ore export structure

Pig Iron Production in CIS, Mt


The main points of presentation cis domestic market structure cis iron ore export structure

HBI Production in CIS, Mt


The main points of presentation cis domestic market structure cis iron ore export structure

Forecasts of Pellets Export from Russia, Mt


The main points of presentation cis domestic market structure cis iron ore export structure

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