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Trends of Selected Agriculture & Rural Development Indicators in the COMESA Region. By Joseph Karugia and Stella Massawe. ReSAKSS Africa-wide conference, Exploring New Opportunities and Strategic Alternatives to Inform African Agricultural Development, Planning and Policy,

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Trends of selected agriculture rural development indicators in the comesa region

Trends of Selected Agriculture & Rural Development Indicators in the COMESA Region

By

Joseph Karugia and Stella Massawe

ReSAKSS Africa-wide conference, Exploring New Opportunities and Strategic Alternatives to Inform African Agricultural Development, Planning and Policy,

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 23- 24,November, 2009


Role of resakss eca node
Role of ReSAKSS-ECA Node Indicators in the COMESA Region

  • Support COMESA and member states; plus Tanzania (EAC and SADC) in design, implementation, M&E agricultural strategies => CAADP

  • Strategic analysis; KM; Capacity building

  • Hosted by ILRI in Nairobi

  • SC chaired by COMESA sets agenda


Importance of agriculture in the region
Importance of agriculture in the region Indicators in the COMESA Region

  • It is the mainstay of COMESA’s rural economy: the majority of the population resides in rural areas, and about 70 % engage in agriculture


Large contribution to gdp
Large contribution to GDP… Indicators in the COMESA Region

  • Contribution of agriculture to GDP remains large – transformation?

Source:African development indicators 2004 in FAO 2006a and World Bank 2008


But performance has been mixed
But performance has been mixed… Indicators in the COMESA Region

Agriculture GDP Growth rate (%) - 2003 vs. 2007

Source: Compiled by ReSAKSS available at www.resakss.org


Productivity is low
Productivity is low.…. Indicators in the COMESA Region

  • In many countries maize productivity is much lower compared to other regions

Source: computed from FAOSTAT data


Food production growth is lower than population growth
Food production growth is lower than population growth Indicators in the COMESA Region

Source: * from AfDB, 2007 and ** most recent figures from World Bank, 2006


Fertilizer use is very low
Fertilizer use is very low Indicators in the COMESA Region


Irrigation is limited
Irrigation is limited Indicators in the COMESA Region

Proportion of arable land under permanent crops that is irrigated

Averages 1970-2004

FAO, 2006



Progress towards halving poverty by 2015 in africa
Progress towards halving poverty by 2015 in Africa hunger by 2015?

Source: ReSAKSS, based on WDI, 2008.

In COMESA, only four countries (DRC, Egypt, Swaziland, and Uganda) are on their way to achieving the goal of poverty reduction. Many countries are far from the MDG benchmark for 2008


Progress towards halving hunger by 2015 in africa
Progress towards halving hunger by 2015 in Africa hunger by 2015?

Source: ReSAKSS, based on WDI, 2008

Many more countries (DRC, Djibouti,Ethiopia, Malawi, Mauritius, Rwanda, Seychelles,and Uganda)are on their way towards halving hunger by 2015 but to achieve MDG1, countries need to halve both hunger and poverty. From the previous slide only two countries in COMESA (DRC, and Uganda) appear to be on track.


Region largest recipient of food aid
Region largest recipient of food aid… hunger by 2015?

  • As a result of food insecurity, food aid has been a historical phenomenon in the COMESA region

  • Received about 59% of the total food aid deliveries to SSA, North Africa and Middle East between 1988 and 2008

Source: Computed from data from Food Aid Information System of the WFP


Food aid recipients in the region
Food aid recipients in the region hunger by 2015?

Ethiopia, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Uganda, Kenya, DRC received the highest proportion in 2007 and 2008

Source: Computed from data from Food Aid Information System of the WFP


High food prices have compounded the problem
High food prices have compounded the problem… hunger by 2015?

  • Global food prices started creeping up at around the year 2000

  • Dramatic increase in 2007-2008; sharp decline since July, 2008;

  • But international prices are poorly transmitted to domestic markets in the ESA region


Food price indices
Food price indices hunger by 2015?

Note the decline in global prices


Changes in the food price index trends
Changes in the Food Price Index Trends hunger by 2015?(%)

Source: FAOSTAT and Country Statistical Offices


Effects of high food prices felt by the poor and net food buyers
Effects of high food prices felt by the poor and net food buyers

  • Poor households spend most of their income on food - high food prices imply real incomes decline

  • Most farmers in the region are net food buyers – do not benefit as producers


Urban poor hardest hit by high food prices
Urban poor hardest hit by high food prices………. buyers

  • Urban poor who depend on markets were particularly hit hard – riots in a number of countries



Public spending in africa has historically been very low compared with other regions
Public spending in Africa has historically been very low compared with other regions

  • Africa constitutes the majority of agricultural based economies

  • Public spending in agriculture based countries is lowest , while their share of Agriculture GDP is highest.

Source: Fan, Shenggen, ed. In World Development report, 2008.


Ethiopia compared with other regions

& Malawi

10%

Madagascar, Swaziland, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia & Zimbabwe

5%

Burundi, DRC, Egypt, Kenya, Mauritius &Rwanda

The 10% Budget Allocation target is yet to be met by majority of the countries in COMESA; But good progress is being made


Not only quantity but also quality is important
Not only quantity, but also quality is important… compared with other regions

  • spending must also be efficient, well-targeted and supplemented by investments in non-agricultural sectors

  • ReSAKSS work has contributed to definition of country investment options for growth and poverty reduction




THANK YOU 2009


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