1 / 30

Global and Regional Emissions and Mitigation Policies (with Application of ERB model for India)

Global and Regional Emissions and Mitigation Policies (with Application of ERB model for India). P.R. Shukla. Top Down models. Energy Economy linkages Partial Equilibrium in energy markets through price adjustments Endogenous determination of prices Feedback of prices on GDP

urian
Download Presentation

Global and Regional Emissions and Mitigation Policies (with Application of ERB model for India)

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Global and Regional Emissions and Mitigation Policies(with Application of ERB model for India) P.R. Shukla

  2. Top Down models • Energy Economy linkages • Partial Equilibrium in energy markets through price adjustments • Endogenous determination of prices • Feedback of prices on GDP • Demand endogenously determined • Supply of energy, demographic parameters exogenously specified

  3. Disaggregation by fuel type Conventional oil, conventional gas, coal, nuclear power, hydroelectric power, solar electric power Global scale and regional detail Nine Regions - US, OECD West, Japan-Australia-New Zealand, EE/FSU, Middle East, China and other South Asian countries, Latin America, Africa, and India Long-term applicability : Terminal year 2095 Four modules Supply, Demand, Energy balance, GHG emissions ERB Model : Application for India

  4. Overview: ERB

  5. Supply • Supply categories • Resource constrained exhaustible • conventional oil and gas • production rates follow logistic paths • Resource constrained renewable • hydro • production rates follow logistic paths • Backstop • unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar and nuclear • infinitely elastic supply schedule • Supply by grades

  6. Demand • Demand depends on population, GNP, and prices • Regional prices of oil, gas and coal determined from world prices, transportation cost and taxes or subsidies • Regional prices of secondary fuels from the price of six primary energy fuels • Cost and supply of hydro determined exogenously • Market share of five fuels determined by logit framework

  7. Demand • Energy service prices for Residential/Commercial, Transport and Industry sectors • Sectoral energy service demand is determined using income and price elasticities • Fuel shares, fuel rates, and technological improvement determine fuel demand in end-use sectors • Fossil fuel demand for primary energy is sum of demand from end-use sectors, electric utilities and synfuel conversion from coal.

  8. Energy balances • Markets for nuclear, solar and hydro are cleared as identities • Energy market for oil, gas and coal are cleared through price adjustments in an equilibrium framework • Excess demand in each of the markets as function of prices • Price elasticities obtained by numerical procedure and used to revise the prices for market clearance

  9. Greenhouse Gas Emissions • Carbon emissions determined by applying carbon coefficients • Zero carbon release coefficients for nuclear, solar and conservation

  10. Key parameters in Reference Case • Population • Annual growth rate for India: 1.1 % (1990-2050) • Labour productivity • Annual growth rate for India: 4 % (1990-2050) • Rate of exogenous end-use energy efficiency improvement • Annual growth rate for India: 2 % (1990-2050) • Fossil fuel resource base • Non-greenhouse environmental costs of fuels

  11. Assumptions : Non-intervention scenarios

  12. Intervention scenarios • Advance technologies • Hydrogen fuel cells as alternative power source • Low cost biomass source with 20 percent of biomass available at $1.40 per GJ and 80 percent at $2.40 per GJ by 2020 • Exogenous global end-use energy intensity improvement rate reaches 2 percent per year by 2050 • Carbon Tax • $100 tax per tonne of carbon content in the fuels imposed in each region • Stabilisation of emissions • Global carbon emissions restricted to 7850 TgC (550 ppmv) in the terminal year

  13. Regional GDP Reference Case

  14. Global Carbon emissions: Reference Case Region 1990 2095 US 23 12 OECD West 17 7 JANZ 6 3 AFR 3 12 EE/FSU 27 12 LA 4 7 MIDEAST 3 4 ACENP 15 35 India 3 10

  15. Global Primary Energy Consumption: Reference Case 1370 EJ 123 EJ

  16. Global Primary Energy Use by Fuel Type: Reference Case

  17. Price of traded fuels - IS92a

  18. Energy Intensity IS92a

  19. Global Primary Energy Consumption: Tax Cases

  20. 140 120 100 80 Exajoules 60 40 20 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 Year No Tax 10$ Tax 100$ Tax 150$ Tax Primary Energy Consumption in India : Tax Cases

  21. Global Carbon Emissions Tax Cases

  22. Carbon Emissions in India: Tax Cases

  23. Global India Tax Level Carbon Energy Carbon Energy mitigation (%) reduction (%) mitigation (%) reduction (%) $10 5 2 4 2 $25 12 5 10 4 $50 24 10 19 7 $100 40 19 30 12 $150 49 26 35 20 ERB Tax Cases - Global v/s India Cumulative - 1990 to 2095

  24. Advance Technology

  25. $100 Tax

  26. Stabilisation

  27. Carbon Emissions

  28. Methane Emissions

  29. N2O Emissions

  30. Global Primary Energy Use - Scenarios

More Related