Life after shopping
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Life after shopping. Gaetan Siew. 12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation. Strategy & Development UIA Past President. In the Eye of the Cyclone. Change in expectations Our material lifestyles Nature & focus of our work & career Our expectations of government

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Life after shopping

Life after shopping

Gaetan Siew

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

Strategy & Development UIA Past President


12th european forum on eco innovation

In the Eye of the Cyclone

  • Change in expectations

  • Our material lifestyles

  • Nature & focus of our work & career

  • Our expectations of government

  • Communities/Companies behaviour

Optimism

Great Disruption

Change of expectations

Choking cities

Jakarta ~10h/day

India - $4,5 b €/year

  • Optimism

  • Good in crisis

  • Backs against the wall

  • Stop addiction to growth

  • Rough ride to better place

  • Debt is due

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

  • Great Disruption

  • Economic /Ecosystem crash synchro

  • Food shortages

  • Climate catastrophes

  • Massive economic change

  • Global geopolitical instability

This is your story, our story. This is the time . This is our time.


12th european forum on eco innovation1

The Scream – Our children’s children

Mankind Progress

Nature

Rio to Durban

  • Mankind Progress

  • Depth & Complexity of issues

  • Experience + Understanding

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

“The era of procrastination, of half measures, of soothing and baffling expedience of delays, is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences...

We cannot avoid this period, we are in it now...”

W Churchill - 1926

Part and Parcel of Nature


12th european forum on eco innovation2

A Very Big Problem

Global Footprint

Humanity v/s Money

Skepticism

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

  • Global Footprint - Climate Refugees

  • 2011: Thailand Floods = 34 € bn

  • 1 000s of lives

  • China droughts = 4m families < 60 years

  • Russia = record °C – banned wheat exports

  • Pakistan, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Somalia

  • The World

    • 2007 : > 50% urban population

    • Monster or sustainablecities ?

    • + 3 b people in South Cities by 2050

    • 500 000 slumdwellers /month

  • Humanity v/s Money

  • Sir N Stern : Unchecked climate = 20% GDP

  • Can we afford this?


12th european forum on eco innovation3

Beyond the limits

No action ?

Limits

World :

1 hectare of agri-land lost/sec

  • No action?

  • No action = more of the same

  • Problem will be fixed by

    • New technologies

    • Power of markets

    • New capital injection

  • Not going to happen

    • Will we continue

    • Business as usual?

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

  • Limits

  • Planet’s finite physical resources

  • Capacity to absorb impact

  • 9 bn people

    • To feed (+50% demand in 2030 – World Bank)

    • To house

  • If poor grow modestly 2%/Year

    • 2050 : Global economy x 15 of now

    • Now = 140% of planet capacity


12th european forum on eco innovation4

Beyond the limits

3 Questions

Where are we now?

  • 3 Questions

  • Problem is population?

  • Market/Technology will fix it ?

  • Different economy?

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

  • Where are we now?

  • Challenge = clear, logical, accepted

  • Herculean task

  • Maths do not work if eco grows

  • No observation of global scale action

  • Momentum against us

  • Resistance to change continues/strengthens


12th european forum on eco innovation5

Addicted to Growth

We love it!

Choice?

What is the issue?

  • We love it!

  • Political/Economical strategy of every gov/company

  • Planet and/or Civilisation

  • Not only about saving the planet

  • About saving the civilisation

  • Human Issue

  • Human Issue

    • Most importantly human

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

Bangladesh

Climate refugees

World = 250m/Y

  • Issue?

  • Not when but how

  • How to adjust?


12th european forum on eco innovation6

When the Dam of Denial Breaks

Global Emergency Response

New Economic Model

Old/New Systems

  • Global Emergency Response

  • Initial response: Energy, Transport, Agriculture

  • Climate change = Symptom, not the problem

  • Expand Response to other Sustainability Issues

  • New Economic Model

  • Not involving Consumerism/material growth

  • Alleviating poverty / Inequity

  • New Energy Systems: Renewable energies

  • City reDesign for Quality of life

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

  • Two Responses in parallel

  • Old Economy & System : trying to fix itself

    • With existing assumptions and mechanisms

  • New Economy

    • With out of the box thinking

Sahara Sun = 10 000 EU needs

Sun = 10 000 x world daily needs


12th european forum on eco innovation7

The One-degree War

Rapid Response Possible

2 Phases

The global risk of coastal flooding

  • Rapid Response Possible

  • Coalition of Cooling

  • 50% Emission = USA + China + EU27

  • 67% Emission = if + Br + Ru + In + Jp

  • 2 Phases

  • Phase 1: Failure of growth

    • Assumption: Growth = prosperity/success

    • Resistance: to restart growth

  • Phase 2: End of growth

    • Breakthru’ in technology

    • Cities, transport, agriculture transformed

  • Rapid global change with

    • Resilience, ingenuity, brilliance, innovation

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation


12th european forum on eco innovation8

Shifting Sands – From Middle East Oil to Chinese Sun

Survival

Geopolitical implications

  • Survival

  • Not about size/strength

  • Adapt + Resilience

  • Practical Preparedness :

    • Right Technology

  • Psychological Readiness :

    • Cope with uncertainty

    • Cope with rapid change

    • Challenge >> Decision

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

One certainty: Plan for dramatic and discontinuous change


12th european forum on eco innovation9

Shifting Sands – From Middle East Oil to Chinese Sun

EU - USA -Asia (China)

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

  • EU- USA - Asia (China)

  • EU - USA losing advance in innovation

  • EU o 2020 - 20% - 20%

  • China =

    • World largest solar market + Wind power

    • 2006-10: 20% CO2 reduction

    • 2020 : 40-45% reduction

  • Asia:Less subject to corporate lobby & democracy

  • Asia : Heavy R&D investment - 2012: 386 b € – 38% world

    • Energy Efficiency - New Energies - IT & Biotech, etc


12th european forum on eco innovation10

Who’s in charge?

Finance?

Media power?

Governments?

Civil Society?

99%?

Facebook?

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation


12th european forum on eco innovation11

Creative Redesign

Opportunities

Creative measures

  • Opportunities

  • Winners: seize opportunity

    • HSBC 2020 : Low CO² tech = 1,5 tn €/Y

    • WEF 2030 : 13,5 tn € /Y

  • Losers: slow to respond >>> Kodak v/s Fuji

  • Creative Measures

  • C5 : Connect the City to Chaos,Crisis & Change

    • Create Urban Leadeship

    • Promote Urban Responsibility

    • Create Long Term Value

    • Shop less, live more

  • I4: Invest in Intelligence, IT & Innovation

    • Connect IT R&D to Quality of Life

    • Invest in solar/wind/bio

    • Eco-retrofit the old cities

    • Sustainable by Design

    • Value of Time

  • E5: Exchange –Export EU Expertise & Experience

    • Partner with BRICS, Asia & Africa

    • (Re)Value/adapt expertise to new markets

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation


12th european forum on eco innovation12

Creative Redesign

Clean Technology?

Focus

  • First Focus : Climate & Energy

  • Food & Agriculture

  • Transport & City Planning

  • Global Energy Efficiency benefits for 50% by 2050 = 6 tn €

  • EU Renovation market = 32% energy savings

  • Clean Technology?

  • Close to Zero CO2

  • Safe and Affordable

  • Quality of Life

  • Geopolitical Security

  • Future Prosperity

  • Economic Stability

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

Future certainty: Plan for dramatic and discontinuous change


12th european forum on eco innovation13

Yes there’s a life after shopping

  • Two reasons

  • Only Choice

  • Happiness Economy

  • Two reasons for Change

  • No Choice

  • Old model outdated

    • Has delivered

    • Cannot anymore

  • Happiness Economy

  • Work hard, more wealth. Buy more !?

  • Seychelles Fisherman

  • Shop less, Live more

  • More fun, clearer conscience.

  • More time, better health

  • Only Choice

  • Redesign our economy

    • Rich in happiness – not physical impact

    • Rich in Q of life – deep in human development

  • Choices: personal, corporate,national & global

  • Less money, Less stuff, more time >>> Happier

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

Yes weekend!!!


12th european forum on eco innovation14

Lessons?

Amsterdam’s Café

Acting Collectively

  • Amsterdam Café – Country’s History

  • Of Art and Flowers

  • Of Trade and Globalisation

  • Of Exploration

  • All with varying levels of Tolerance and Humanity

  • Act collectively – Stop waiting

  • Decide to change

  • Decide to act in dignity & with respect

  • Connect to work

  • Raise children who think

  • Be Happy

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

Amin Maalouf

“To reconcile, reunite, adopt, tame,pacify are voluntary acts , are acts of civilisation which needs perseverance and clarity . Acts that are learnt, cultivated. Learning to live together is a never ending battle that is never totally won.”


12th european forum on eco innovation15

Thank you

Merci

  • Resilience

  • Adaptability

  • Innovation

  • Compassion

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

Gaetan Siew

[email protected]


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