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Life after shopping

Life after shopping. Gaetan Siew. 12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation. Strategy & Development UIA Past President. In the Eye of the Cyclone. Change in expectations Our material lifestyles Nature & focus of our work & career Our expectations of government

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Life after shopping

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  1. Life after shopping Gaetan Siew 12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation Strategy & Development UIA Past President

  2. In the Eye of the Cyclone • Change in expectations • Our material lifestyles • Nature & focus of our work & career • Our expectations of government • Communities/Companies behaviour Optimism Great Disruption Change of expectations Choking cities Jakarta ~10h/day India - $4,5 b €/year • Optimism • Good in crisis • Backs against the wall • Stop addiction to growth • Rough ride to better place • Debt is due 12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation • Great Disruption • Economic /Ecosystem crash synchro • Food shortages • Climate catastrophes • Massive economic change • Global geopolitical instability This is your story, our story. This is the time . This is our time.

  3. The Scream – Our children’s children Mankind Progress Nature Rio to Durban • Mankind Progress • Depth & Complexity of issues • Experience + Understanding 12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation “The era of procrastination, of half measures, of soothing and baffling expedience of delays, is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences... We cannot avoid this period, we are in it now...” W Churchill - 1926 Part and Parcel of Nature

  4. A Very Big Problem Global Footprint Humanity v/s Money Skepticism 12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation • Global Footprint - Climate Refugees • 2011: Thailand Floods = 34 € bn • 1 000s of lives • China droughts = 4m families < 60 years • Russia = record °C – banned wheat exports • Pakistan, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Somalia • The World • 2007 : > 50% urban population • Monster or sustainablecities ? • + 3 b people in South Cities by 2050 • 500 000 slumdwellers /month • Humanity v/s Money • Sir N Stern : Unchecked climate = 20% GDP • Can we afford this?

  5. Beyond the limits No action ? Limits World : 1 hectare of agri-land lost/sec • No action? • No action = more of the same • Problem will be fixed by • New technologies • Power of markets • New capital injection • Not going to happen • Will we continue • Business as usual? 12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation • Limits • Planet’s finite physical resources • Capacity to absorb impact • 9 bn people • To feed (+50% demand in 2030 – World Bank) • To house • If poor grow modestly 2%/Year • 2050 : Global economy x 15 of now • Now = 140% of planet capacity

  6. Beyond the limits 3 Questions Where are we now? • 3 Questions • Problem is population? • Market/Technology will fix it ? • Different economy? 12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation • Where are we now? • Challenge = clear, logical, accepted • Herculean task • Maths do not work if eco grows • No observation of global scale action • Momentum against us • Resistance to change continues/strengthens

  7. Addicted to Growth We love it! Choice? What is the issue? • We love it! • Political/Economical strategy of every gov/company • Planet and/or Civilisation • Not only about saving the planet • About saving the civilisation • Human Issue • Human Issue • Most importantly human 12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation Bangladesh Climate refugees World = 250m/Y • Issue? • Not when but how • How to adjust?

  8. When the Dam of Denial Breaks Global Emergency Response New Economic Model Old/New Systems • Global Emergency Response • Initial response: Energy, Transport, Agriculture • Climate change = Symptom, not the problem • Expand Response to other Sustainability Issues • New Economic Model • Not involving Consumerism/material growth • Alleviating poverty / Inequity • New Energy Systems: Renewable energies • City reDesign for Quality of life 12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation • Two Responses in parallel • Old Economy & System : trying to fix itself • With existing assumptions and mechanisms • New Economy • With out of the box thinking Sahara Sun = 10 000 EU needs Sun = 10 000 x world daily needs

  9. The One-degree War Rapid Response Possible 2 Phases The global risk of coastal flooding • Rapid Response Possible • Coalition of Cooling • 50% Emission = USA + China + EU27 • 67% Emission = if + Br + Ru + In + Jp • 2 Phases • Phase 1: Failure of growth • Assumption: Growth = prosperity/success • Resistance: to restart growth • Phase 2: End of growth • Breakthru’ in technology • Cities, transport, agriculture transformed • Rapid global change with • Resilience, ingenuity, brilliance, innovation 12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

  10. Shifting Sands – From Middle East Oil to Chinese Sun Survival Geopolitical implications • Survival • Not about size/strength • Adapt + Resilience • Practical Preparedness : • Right Technology • Psychological Readiness : • Cope with uncertainty • Cope with rapid change • Challenge >> Decision 12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation One certainty: Plan for dramatic and discontinuous change

  11. Shifting Sands – From Middle East Oil to Chinese Sun EU - USA -Asia (China) 12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation • EU- USA - Asia (China) • EU - USA losing advance in innovation • EU o 2020 - 20% - 20% • China = • World largest solar market + Wind power • 2006-10: 20% CO2 reduction • 2020 : 40-45% reduction • Asia:Less subject to corporate lobby & democracy • Asia : Heavy R&D investment - 2012: 386 b € – 38% world • Energy Efficiency - New Energies - IT & Biotech, etc

  12. Who’s in charge? Finance? Media power? Governments? Civil Society? 99%? Facebook? 12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

  13. Creative Redesign Opportunities Creative measures • Opportunities • Winners: seize opportunity • HSBC 2020 : Low CO² tech = 1,5 tn €/Y • WEF 2030 : 13,5 tn € /Y • Losers: slow to respond >>> Kodak v/s Fuji • Creative Measures • C5 : Connect the City to Chaos,Crisis & Change • Create Urban Leadeship • Promote Urban Responsibility • Create Long Term Value • Shop less, live more • I4: Invest in Intelligence, IT & Innovation • Connect IT R&D to Quality of Life • Invest in solar/wind/bio • Eco-retrofit the old cities • Sustainable by Design • Value of Time • E5: Exchange –Export EU Expertise & Experience • Partner with BRICS, Asia & Africa • (Re)Value/adapt expertise to new markets 12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

  14. Creative Redesign Clean Technology? Focus • First Focus : Climate & Energy • Food & Agriculture • Transport & City Planning • Global Energy Efficiency benefits for 50% by 2050 = 6 tn € • EU Renovation market = 32% energy savings • Clean Technology? • Close to Zero CO2 • Safe and Affordable • Quality of Life • Geopolitical Security • Future Prosperity • Economic Stability 12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation Future certainty: Plan for dramatic and discontinuous change

  15. Yes there’s a life after shopping • Two reasons • Only Choice • Happiness Economy • Two reasons for Change • No Choice • Old model outdated • Has delivered • Cannot anymore • Happiness Economy • Work hard, more wealth. Buy more !? • Seychelles Fisherman • Shop less, Live more • More fun, clearer conscience. • More time, better health • Only Choice • Redesign our economy • Rich in happiness – not physical impact • Rich in Q of life – deep in human development • Choices: personal, corporate,national & global • Less money, Less stuff, more time >>> Happier 12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation Yes weekend!!!

  16. Lessons? Amsterdam’s Café Acting Collectively • Amsterdam Café – Country’s History • Of Art and Flowers • Of Trade and Globalisation • Of Exploration • All with varying levels of Tolerance and Humanity • Act collectively – Stop waiting • Decide to change • Decide to act in dignity & with respect • Connect to work • Raise children who think • Be Happy 12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation Amin Maalouf “To reconcile, reunite, adopt, tame,pacify are voluntary acts , are acts of civilisation which needs perseverance and clarity . Acts that are learnt, cultivated. Learning to live together is a never ending battle that is never totally won.”

  17. Thank you Merci • Resilience • Adaptability • Innovation • Compassion 12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation Gaetan Siew g.siew@Ls-architects.mu

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