Definition and diagnostics for the model observations comparison
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Definition and diagnostics for the model-observations comparison. Christina Schnadt Poberaj. Evaluation of multi-model performance (WP 3.1.1) Definition of model simulations: simulations of selected years, comparison of model results with observations in the ETH meg database

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Definition and diagnostics for the model-observations comparison

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Definition and diagnostics for the model observations comparison

Definition and diagnostics for the model-observations comparison

Christina Schnadt Poberaj


Definition and diagnostics for the model observations comparison

Evaluation of multi-model performance (WP 3.1.1)

Definition of model simulations: simulations of selected years, comparison of model results with observations in the ETHmeg database

Diagnostics of key processes relevant for the effects of the different modes of transportations:

stratosphere-troposphere exchange of O3 and NOx

boundary layer venting

convective transport of pollutants emitted at the surface


Definition and diagnostics for the model observations comparison

Evaluation of multi-model performance

Definition of model simulations: simulations of selected years, comparison of model results with observations in the ETHmeg database

Model evaluation: year 2003

Campaign data to be used: SPURT, UTOPOHIAN_Act, MOZAIC, CONTRACE, VINTERSOL, INTEX, SCIAMACHY NO2 columns


Definition and diagnostics for the model observations comparison

Evaluation of multi-model performance

Boundary conditions for 2003 runs:

Model will be run in the same set-up as in the current impact study (WP3.1.2)

Anthropogenic emissions year 2000: EDGAR 3.2 Fast Track 2000

GHGs CO2, CH4, N2O, and F-gases (HFCs, PFCs, and SF6)

air pollutants CO, NMVOC, NOx, SO2

Large-scale biomass burning: annual burned area estimates for 1997-2000 average, or actual 2000 area, or EDGAR 3.2 emission factors, or factors compiled by Andreae and Merlet (2001)

Biogenic NO, isoprene, and monoterpene emissions soon available by MPI for chemistry

Lightning NOx: 5 Tg (N)/yr

Transport emissions: from Activity 1 if available (report by Peter)

otherwise road traffic (Volker), air traffic (AERO2K or

DLR1992), shipping emissions (via UiO, Endresen)


Definition and diagnostics for the model observations comparison

Fundamental evaluation of model performance

Comparison with observations:

Comparison of observed and modelled tropospheric ozone and CO (O3 at various altitudes, surface O3, CO)

Time series

Model biases

Correlations

Skill scores

Model-model intercomparisons:

Intercomparisons between models: zonal means and horizontal distributions of relevant species (O3, CO, CH4, NO2, (NOx), CH2O, HNO3, OH, SO2, H2SO4)


Definition and diagnostics for the model observations comparison

Model evaluation of RETRO 1997 test simulations using ozonesonde station data (left) and CMDL stations data for surface ozone and CO (right)


Definition and diagnostics for the model observations comparison

Brunner et al.

(2005)


Definition and diagnostics for the model observations comparison

Model biases at individual ozonesonde stations

or airports

(MOZAIC airport profiles)

Identify model biases:

Scatterplots O3, NOx, CO, …

TM4, RETRO project

1997 quasi-monthly means (dates where ozonesonde data available only)


Definition and diagnostics for the model observations comparison

Brunner et al.

(2003)


Definition and diagnostics for the model observations comparison

Testing the skill of the models:

Taylor diagrams

  • correlation coefficient,

  • pattern root-mean square (RMS) error,

  • ratio of modelled/observed standard

  • deviation

  • all indicated by a single point

  • Example C1

  • correlation 0.52

  • normalized standard deviation 1.2

  • RMS error proportional to linear distance between Ref. and C1

  • skill score 0.60


Definition and diagnostics for the model observations comparison

Diagnostics of key processes

Troposphere-stratosphere mixing:

CO-O3 correlation

Boundary layer venting: analyse vertical tracer profiles

(radon, CH3I)

Stratosphere-troposphere exchange: ideas?

Convective transport: ideas?


Definition and diagnostics for the model observations comparison

Identify troposphere-to-stratosphere transport:

O3-CO correlations

From Hoor et al. (JGR, 2002)


Definition and diagnostics for the model observations comparison

  • MOZAIC, SPURT data: tropopause information (ERA40) interpolated onto flight tracks available

  • (dynamical tropopause (PV2), potential temperature at dyn. tropopause, pressure at dyn. tropopause)

  • analysis relative to tropopause possible

  • additional model output recommended:

    PV2 tropopause, pressure, pot. temperature at

    dyn. tropopause, PV at flight coordinates

    Tropopause routine by D. Brunner and timepos files

    will be provided by end of year 2005.


Definition and diagnostics for the model observations comparison

Planned schedule

  • Extension of database for the year 2003 completed:

  • by end of year 2005

  • Extension of database finished: end of January 2006

  • Validation of 2003 simulations: start in September 2006


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