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Improving the GFDL/URI Coupled Hurricane-Ocean Model for Transition to Operations Isaac Ginis University of Rhode Island. B. Thomas, URI I-J. Moon, URI A. Falkovich, NCEP M. Bender, GFDL. Support is provided by JHT/USWRP.

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Improving the GFDL/URI

Coupled Hurricane-Ocean

Model for Transition to Operations

Isaac Ginis

University of Rhode Island

B. Thomas, URI

I-J. Moon, URI

A. Falkovich, NCEP

M. Bender, GFDL

Support is provided by JHT/USWRP


Gfdl uri coupled model

Implemented to operations at NCEP in 2001 after three years of near-real time testing in 1998-2000

Improvements implemented in 2003:

New ocean model domain configurations

Ocean coupling over entire ocean domains

Gulf Stream and Loop Current data assimilation

GFDL/URI Coupled Model


Examples of the Coupled Model Forecasts of near-real time testing in 1998-2000Hurricane Isabel Initial Time: 00 UTC 15 Sept, 2003

Sea Surface Currents

Sea Surface Temperature


Ongoing efforts toward future improvements

Ocean coupling in the Eastern Pacific basin of near-real time testing in 1998-2000

High resolution version of the GFDL model

Air-sea flux parameterization

Coupled hurricane-wave-ocean system

Ongoing Efforts Toward Future Improvements


Hurricane IGNACIO of near-real time testing in 1998-2000

22-27 AUG, 2003


Hurricane Ignacio of near-real time testing in 1998-2000

GFDL Model Forecast (12Z 24 AUG, 2003)

Red - Operational

Green - Coupled

Black - Observed


High resolution version of the gfdl uri coupled model

Goal: To better resolve the hurricane core region, especially in major hurricanes

Grid configuration:

1/2o (stationary); 1/6o and 1/12o (movable)

High-resolution Version of the GFDL/URI Coupled Model


Hurricane Isabel, Sept 8 12Z, 2003 especially in major hurricanes

High resolution GFDL model

Operational GFDL model


3-Nest especially in major hurricanes

2-Nest


Hurricane isabel 2003
Hurricane Isabel (2003) especially in major hurricanes

kts

High Res

GFDL

SHIPS


Air-Sea Fluxes in High Wind Conditions especially in major hurricanes

Behavior of Cd and Ch in the GFDL model

?

Cd

Ch

Wind Speed (m/s)


Idealized sensitivity experiments
Idealized Sensitivity Experiments especially in major hurricanes


New coupled wind wave model
New Coupled Wind-Wave Model especially in major hurricanes

young waves

mature waves


WW3 especially in major hurricanes

CWW


Wave field in a hurricane
Wave Field in a Hurricane especially in major hurricanes


Operational GFDL Model especially in major hurricanes

Future Coupled Hurricane-Wave-Ocean Model

Atmosphere

Atmosphere

GFDL

Hurricane Model

GFDL(WRF)

Hurricane Model

Wind &

Air Temp.

Flux

Wind &

Air Temp.

Flux

SST

Wave Boundary Model

SST

SST &

Current

Wave

Spectra

Flux

Flux

Currents,

NCEP

WAVEWATCH III

POM

(HYCOM)

POM

Elevations,

& SST

Ocean

Ocean

Waves


Plans for operational implemantion
Plans for Operational Implemantion especially in major hurricanes

  • Ocean coupling in the Eastern Pacific is planned for operational implementation in 2004

  • The high resolution GFDL coupled model will be tested in near real-time in 2004 is planned for operational implementation in 2005

  • The coupled GFDL hurricane-wave-ocean model is being developed


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