Enrollment Forecasting Workshop

Enrollment Forecasting Workshop PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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2. Outline. Two-Year College Growth ProjectionsPolicy Factors that may Affect Future EnrollmentCollege Enrollment Plan. 3. Approach Taken SBCTC Enrollment Forecast for 2012. Developed population-based enrollment projectionIdentified demographic trends that are likely to affect enrollment

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Enrollment Forecasting Workshop

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1. Enrollment Forecasting Workshop March 2004

2. 2 Outline Two-Year College Growth Projections Policy Factors that may Affect Future Enrollment College Enrollment Plan

3. 3 Approach Taken SBCTC Enrollment Forecast for 2012 Developed population-based enrollment projection Identified demographic trends that are likely to affect enrollment demand Explored policy factors related to system mission that could affect need for enrollment access SBCTC group formed researchers, instructional and finance staff LOOKED AT ALL ISSUES SORTED DOWNSBCTC group formed researchers, instructional and finance staff LOOKED AT ALL ISSUES SORTED DOWN

4. 4 Population-based Enrollment Projection Based on 2003 enrollments and state population projections Projected state and contract enrollments separately - different enrollment patterns Projected by year of age and by type of enrollment Reduced projection to reflect lower future WRT Ofm POP PROJECTIONS broke down by age all ages over 15 2003 participation rates WRT adjustment defer to Doug if there 2003 not typicalOfm POP PROJECTIONS broke down by age all ages over 15 2003 participation rates WRT adjustment defer to Doug if there 2003 not typical

5. 5 Historical CTC Enrollments Expanding gap Looks like this year will be flat for allExpanding gap Looks like this year will be flat for all

6. 6 2003 State Population – 6.1 Million

7. 7 2012 Population – 6.8 Million Note three counties with both growth and percent-clark, thurston and snoh Note three counties with both growth and percent-clark, thurston and snoh

8. 8 2012 Population - % Change

9. 9 2003 CTC Enrollments by Age

10. 10 2003 & 2013 State Population by Age

11. 11 CTC State Enrollment Projection to 2012 Based on Population Growth

12. 12 CTC Total Enrollment Projection to 2012

13. 13 Demographic Trends Increasing share of recent high school graduates Increasing participation rate of over 50 age group Increasing non-English speaking population Group agreed to focus on different members Group agreed to focus on different members

14. 14 Demographic Trend #1 – Increasing participation rate from High School graduates An increasing share of HS graduates enter post-secondary education immediately after high school, a long term trend that is likely to continue through the next decade. This trend is consistent with the nature of the job market – at least two years of post-secondary education needed to gain a living wage job.

15. 15 Projected Growth in High School graduates

16. 16 The percent of high school graduates going to college has increased steadily The percent of high school graduates selecting two-year colleges has grown faster than the number selecting four-year institutions Student Choice Seen in Increased High School to CTC Rate

17. 17 Growth in 19 year olds 2000-2010 Washington State by race & ethnic group The 19 year old population will grow by nearly 10,000 in this decade. Half of that growth will be young people of color – primarily Latino/Hispanic and Asian/Pacific Islander

18. 18 CTC Total Enrollment Projection to 2012: Effect of Increasing Number of High School graduates

19. 19 Demographic Trend #2 – Increasing participation by older students As baby boomers age, the number of persons over age 50 will surge dramatically in the next decade. Baby boomers may be more likely than their predecessors to engage in higher education in their later years. They are working longer and need to update skills to stay in the job market.

20. 20 CTC Total Enrollment Projection to 2012: Effect of Increasing Participation by Age 50 +

21. 21 Demographic Trend #3 – Increasing non-English speaking population One of the fastest growing populations segments in Washington is adults who speak a language other than English at home and report that they speak English with difficulty. Between the 1990 and the 2000 Censuses, this population grew from 4 percent to 7 percent of the total population. This increased population will drive increased demand for enrollment, even at historical ESL participation rates.

22. 22 Non-English Speaking Population in 2000- 7% of State Population

23. 23 Latino/Hispanics as Share of Civilian Labor Force

24. 24 CTC Total Enrollment Projection to 2012: Effect of Increasing non-English speaking Population

25. 25 Summary: Increase based on Population Demographics Participation

26. III. Two-Year Colleges: Policy Factors Affecting Future Enrollments

27. 27 1. Prepare more students for work There is a shortage of skilled workers in Washington state (Workforce Board, skills gap). Shifts in state demographics will lead to increasing demand for adult basic education and English language training before students can transition to college level work. It is critical for the state’s future workforce for the two-year colleges to transition future students from basic skills to college level, and then to retain them, so that they are prepared for work.

28. 28 1. Prepare more students for work (cont’d) Challenges: Currently only Ľ of basic skills students transition to college level. Latino-Hispanics – who are expected to constitute over 15% of the civilian work force by 2010 (up from 3.8% in 1990) – transition from basic skills at a much lower rate. Only about 1 out of every 12 Latino Hispanics students makes the transition today. When basic skills students do make the transition, they only take 1/3 the number of credit hours that other students take.

29. 29 1. Prepare more students for work (cont’d) Policy Approach: Assume that the rate of transition to college increases over 1/3 over the next ten years Enrollment impact: this would generate demand for an additional 2,300 FTES by 2010 Further assume that former basic skills students, over the next ten years, increase their college credit hours to the same levels as other students Enrollment impact: this would generate demand for an additional 5,000 FTES by 2010

30. 30 Increase Job Preparation

31. 31 2. Reduce disparity in two-year college access across the state Participation in two-year college education varies across the state, with high participation rates along the I-5 corridor and in certain eastern Washington counties.

32. 32 2003 Community & Technical Colleges Participation Rates by County – Average 3.86 per 1,000

33. 33 The State Board has historically followed a policy to address this disparity in its allocation of enrollment growth, by setting aside some portion of the growth and allocating it to colleges with relative low “service levels”. Policy Approach: Increase enrollments in below average counties to 3.86 students per 1,000 population (2003 average) Accomplish this service increase by 2012 Enrollment impact: If enrollments were actually to increase as described, demand would increase by 8,300 FTES in 2012 2. Reduce disparity in two-year college access across the state (cont’d)

34. 34 Reduce Disparity

35. 35 Policy Factors Conclusions These two factors overlap one another – an increase in job preparation would result in higher participation rates in many of the currently underserved counties. Of the two, increased job preparation more fully represents a policy and mission-based approach.

36. 36 Increase Job Preparation

37. 37 Summary

38. 38 College Comprehensive Enrollment Plan Institution Mission and Goals Situation Analysis Assumptions used in plan development Enrollment projection and goals Enrollment Strategies Action Plan Evaluation

39. 39 Institution Mission and Goals Basic mission Philosophy Goals What makes the college unique and distinguishes it from others

40. 40 Situation Analysis Demographic trends Environmental factors College strengths and weaknesses Admissions and retention data Institutional image Information on primary and target markets Enrollment projections

41. 41 Assumptions used in plan development Future buildings and locations Population growth Funding levels New programs Local economy

42. 42 Enrollment projection and goals Overall and program level Transfer, workforce, basic skills, developmental Headcount and FTE Location(s) Ethnicity, age Retention and admission

43. 43 Enrollment Strategies Broad statements on how to reach goals Focus in on when and what will be the most effective

44. 44 Action Plans Tactics and activities to accomplish strategies Description of activity Timetable Who responsible Resources How to measure, control and evaluate

45. 45 Evaluation Review plan regularly Establish process and responsibility for evaluation Identify key points of time for evaluation

46. Questions

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