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What is to be done?

What is to be done?. … the Philippines confronts yet another political crisis, July 2005. Outline. Introduction: perspective Part 1: Where are we? Part 2: What is to be done? Part 3: Where do we want to go?. Introduction: Perspective. Political landscapes Critical junctures shifting

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What is to be done?

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  1. What is to be done? … the Philippines confronts yet another political crisis, July 2005

  2. Outline • Introduction: perspective • Part 1: Where are we? • Part 2: What is to be done? • Part 3: Where do we want to go?

  3. Introduction: Perspective • Political landscapes • Critical junctures shifting • Listen

  4. PART 1: WHERE ARE WE? • Two immediate cases vs. GMA • her family received "jueteng" payoffs • wiretapped telephone conversation which may be evidence of fraud in the May 2004 election • GMA admitted and apologized • GMA-resign calls from various sectors • Surveys register serious GMA unpopularity • She will not resign

  5. General situation • Political stalemate • Divisions in key sectors result in paralysis • Differences in articulation of the problem • Differences in solutions proposed • Difficulty of getting to consensus • Economy jittery • Major development works squeaking through

  6. Major positions and players 1. GMA should stay on and let’s get on with the business of governing • Loyalists in cabinet • Lakas-CMD, NP, LP-Atienza • LGU leagues • El Shaddai

  7. Major positions and players 2. GMA should resign • Cory Aquino, some church leaders, some business leaders • Hyatt 10 • LP-Drilon • Erap-FPJ groups • Left-oriented groups of various shades • Lacson, de Villa, Roco, Bangon Pilipinas • University groups, academics, students

  8. Major positions and players 3. Neutral as to GMA’s resignation • Military establishment and leadership • CBCP seeking truth >> with echoes of “critical collaboration” • BBC and other business groups • Some university groups and academics

  9. Where do Filipinos stand and why is there no moral outrage? • Complex issues, confusion, multiple options and combinations • Situation in constant flux • Authenticity of evidence still in question • People-power fatigue • No acceptable alternative leader • No credible champion • Pragmatic considerations • Piecemeal reforms

  10. PART 2: WHAT IS TO BE DONE? • Accountability of the President • GMA herself, with regard to the tapes • GMA as president, answerable to the people • Political survival of GMA cannot be equated with the political survival of the state itself • Search for solutions that will be most sustainable, that will not jeopardize future development as much … hence the bias for constitutionality and non-violence • Phases: (1) immediate; (2) long-term

  11. Resolution of crisis • Impeachment • Truth Commission If GMA goes… • Constitutional succession: VP Noli de Castro • VP must also go, after which the constitutional means is special elections • Revolutionary transition government; High Commission; Council of leaders; Junta

  12. At the base … and over the long haul • Let people discuss the issues and propose solutions, and begin building consensus • Organize groups • Mobilizations for truth • Keep communication lines open with other groups … dialogue • Clarify visions for reform in concrete proposals

  13. Dream situation • Impeachment proceeds in Congress • Establishment of a truly independent Truth Commission, with a clear mandate detailing its authority, powers, and relationship to the impeachment process • Both impeachment process and Truth Commission run their courses • Should GMA step down, VP agrees to heading a caretaker government with a strong cabinet and a clear endpoint, while charter change is discussed, proposed, and ratified

  14. PART 3: WHERE DO WE WANT TO GO? • Calls for charter change and institutional reforms should be distinguished from the resolution of the present political crisis • Reforms: electoral, political, bureaucratic Electoral reforms • Automation • Comelec revamp and reform of selection process • Desynchronize local and national elections

  15. Political reforms • Political party system reforms; possibilities for increased proportional representation in the legislature • Campaign financing and regulation of private contributions • Legislation to implement the constitutional ban on political dynasties • Reinforce decentralization, and initiate gradual federalization • Establish a type of parliamentary government that would correspond to Filipino culture • Regulate political appointments by the Chief Executive

  16. Bureaucratic reforms • Strengthen and further professionalize the Civil Service • Continue anti-corruption measures, e.g. programs of the Office of the Ombudsman • Improve and Implement the Procurement Act • Devolution and fiscal decentralization • Support initiatives towards judicial reform

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