Agenda

1. Strategic Challenges of Defense PlanningPresentation to the Association of Strategic Planning19 May 2011

2. Agenda • Challenges for Defense Planners • Resources • Uncertainty of the Future World • Acquisition Processes • Technology and Innovation • Responding to the Challenges • “Backcasting” • Changing How we Look at the Enterprise • Linking Strategy to Resources thru an End-to-End Process • Using a “Corporate” Approach • Instilling an Efficiencies Mindset

3. National Security Strategy "We will continue to rebalance our military capabilitiesto excel at counterterrorism, counterinsurgency, stability operations, and meeting increasingly sophisticated security threats, while ensuring our force is ready to address the full range of military operations. This includes preparing for increasingly sophisticated adversaries, deterring and defeating aggression in anti-access environments, and defending the United States and supporting civil authorities at home.“ -- National Security Strategy, 2010

4. Resource Context Defense as a Percentage of GDP “The fact that we are a nation at war and facing an uncertain world, I believe, calls for sustaining current military force structure – Army brigades, Marine regiments, Air Force wings, Navy ships. This typically requires regular real growth in the defense budget ranging from two to three percent above inflation “ - SECDEF, 8 May 2010

5. Long-Range Projections put Compression on Discretionary Spending Percent of GDP

6. Challenges of the Time Horizon • Did anyone predict that the U.S. would be relying on Russia for a manned space missions only 25 years after the Challenger explosion? • Did anyone predict in 1986 that members of the Warsaw pact would be part of NATO and would support a U.S.-led coalition for wars in Iraq and Afghanistan? • Did anyone predict that we would have over 100,000 troops deployed to Afghanistan 22 years after the Soviets withdrew? • Did anyone 20 or 30 years ago predict that China would be the “near-peer” competitor? • Did anyone predict that the we would be investing so heavily in alternative sources of energy?

7. Acquisition Processes • “It can take 10 to 20 years for modernization programs to be incorporated into the military’s capabilities, compared with approximately 18 months for the commercial sector to do so.” – 21st Century Strategic Technology Vectors, Defense Science Board, April 2007. • “The Department of Defense's conventional modernization programs seek a 99 percent solution over a period of years. Stability and counterinsurgency missions require 75 percent solutions over a period of months.” – Robert Gates, “A Balanced Strategy: Reprogramming the Pentagon for a New Age,” Foreign Affairs, Jan / Feb 2009. • “Many of these advanced capabilities…are largely software-driven, with upgrades and changes that are enabled by mere software updates. This calls not just for ‘more’ or ‘better’ systems in response, but also for more autonomous and evolvable systems, which, we believe, would prove effective in helping us contain, at least in part, our problem of rising costs.” – Gen. Norton Schwartz, Remarks at the Defense Programs Conference, Arlington, Va., March 2, 2011

8. Technology and Innovation • Strategic Innovation • U.S. can no longer assume that it will stay ahead of its adversaries by simply spending more on research, development, and procurement. • Need new ideas to confront the threats of the future. • Technological Innovation • “The U.S. government and its defense partners no longer are at the leading edge of most of the militarily-relevant technologies, having been displaced by international commercial industries and markets.” 21st Century Strategic Technology Vectors, Defense Science Board, April 2007.

9. Backcasting Nuclear Deterrence Operations Air Superiority Space Superiority Vision Nuclear Deterrence Operations Cyberspace Superiority Air Superiority Space Superiority Command and Control Budget $ Cyberspace Superiority Global Integrated ISR Programmed Force Command and Control Global Precision Attack Planning Force Global Integrated ISR Special Operations Global Precision Attack Rapid Global Mobility Special Operations Rapid Global Mobility Personnel Recovery Agile Combat Support Personnel Recovery Agile Combat Support Building Partnerships Building Partnerships 2018 2013 2032 Programming (FYDP) Planning

10. Changing How We look at the Enterprise

11. Service Core Functions Rapid Global Mobility Space Superiority Cyberspace Superiority Global Precision Attack Nuclear Deterrence Ops Air Superiority Timely deployment, employment, sustainment, augmentation and redeployment of military forces and capabilities Deliver dominance in space over adversaries Deliver dominance in cyberspace of one force over another that permits conduct of operations by the former Hold at risk or strike rapidly and persistently any target to achieve precise effects Operate, maintain, and secure nuclear forces to deter an adversary from taking action against US vital interests Deliver dominance in the air battle Personnel Recovery Agile Combat Support Global Integrated ISR Building Partnerships Special Operations Command & Control Recover and return of US military, DoD civilians and DoD contractor personnel Field, protect and sustain air, space and cyber forces Conducting and synchronizing intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance across all domains Specialized airpower operations conducted in hostile, denied or politically sensitive environments Set conditions for interaction with partner, competitor or adversary leaders, military forces or relevant populations Ability of commanders to integrate operations in multiple theaters at multiple levels

12. Linking Strategy to Resources thru an End-to-End Process National Guidance (QDR, NSS, NMS, NDS, NPR, SPR, DPPG) Headquarters, Major Commands, Wings Warfighter Support Organize Train & Equip Strategic Environmental Assessment Execution Air Force Strategic Plan Congress Authorize / Appropriate Priorities, Goals, Objectives, Metrics Core Function Master Plans President’s Budget Futures Game Planning Force Program Objective Memorandum USAF Annual Planning and Programming Guidance Joint

13. Core Function Master Plans: Form and Function CFMP-Content • Align strategy, operating concepts and capabilities by Service Core Function over a 20 year period • Address independent, Service Core Function related perspectives across the Air Force • Enable a holistic approach to the Total Force Enterprise • Improve Risk Assessment credibility and fidelity • Identify mitigation strategies in light of anticipated fiscal and operational challenges • Prioritize Science & Technology on far-term strategy • Inform force structure decisions for each fiscal year’s Planning Force and Annual Planning and Programming Guidance Strategic Vision Operational View Programmed Force Programmed Force Extended Planning Force Proposal Operations and Maintenance Challenges Science and Technology Efficiencies CFMPs form a common framework linking strategic planning and programming to improve what the Air Force brings to America’s security Total Force Enterprise Manpower Metrics Decision Space Summary

14. Air Force Corporate Structure Air Force Council Air Force Board Investment Budget Strategic Planning Operating Budget Air Force Group Review Committee Committee Review Committee Mission Panels Mission Support Panels Space C2 & Cyber Personnel Global Logistics CS&P Superiority & Superiority & Training Mob, SOF, ISR PR, BP Nuclear Deterrence Operations Air RDT&E Installation Superiority & Support Global Attack

15. Efficiencies Strategy • Focus on reducing “tail” to buy “tooth” • Programmed efficiencies must be achievable & require active governance structure • Efficiencies cannot just be top-down • Maximize the value of every taxpayer dollar • Shift resources from overhead to force structure & modernization • Look hard at all programs & appropriations for waste & opportunity • Improve & sustain warfighter capability • Not just an “event” -- must become a way of doing business “We are committed to a deliberate and ongoing process to enhance capabilities by reducing overhead and support functions and shifting resources to warfighter and readiness programs” Joint Statement from the SECAF/CSAF - 6 Jan, 2011

16. What Keeps Planners Awake • Backcasting from the future in an environment of severe fiscal constraints • Making the right choices – when we won’t be able to buy everything we think we need • Reducing costs without reducing capability, manpower, energy, or other O&M • Steering innovation linked with the future environment • What is the right Active Component/Reserve Component mix for various mission areas • Balancing across the core functions • Balancing between conventional and irregular warfare and A2AD • Balancing modernization, readiness, and force structure • Mitigating threats to availability and delivery of energy

17. Worthy Advice “Gentleman, we are out of money. Therefore, we will have to think.” 17