VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND ADAPTATION MEASURES UNDER UNFCCC AND KYOTO PROTOCOL

1. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND ADAPTATION MEASURES UNDER UNFCCC AND KYOTO PROTOCOL November 19-20, Budapest, Hungary CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACT, ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY ON THE EUROPEAN RESOURCE BASE NOVÁKY BÉLA

2. CLIMATE CHANGE

3. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as it now evident from observations SPM WGI

4. Global average temperature Global average sea level Northern hemisphere snow cover

5. Continued greenhouse gas emissions …would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21-st century SPM WGI

7. Europe - mean climate Increase intemperature in all seasons and year (A2: 2.5-5.5 °C, B2:1-4 °C) Annual precipitation increases in N and Atlantic Europe, decreases in S and Central Europe Seasonal change in precipitation varies from season to season and across regions WGII Chapter 12.3

8. WGI Chapter 11

9. Europe - extreme events Maximum temperature increases in S and C Europe much more than in N Europe C. Europe would experience the number of hot days as currently occur in S. Europe Increase in the intensity of daily precipitation, even for areas with a decrease in mean precipitation, e.g. increase in short duration summer rainfall by up to 40% in Slovakia (Lapin and Hlavcova 2003) WGII Chapter 12.3

10. OBSERVED CHANGES

11. The SPM concludes that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increase WGII SPM

12. For the first time, wide-ranging impacts of change in current climate have been documented WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII

13. Warming trend throughout Europe • for 1901-2005 is +0,90 °C (0,086 °C/decad) • for 1979-2005 is +0,41 °C (0,164 °C/decad) • Regionally the trend is highest in C, NE Europe, and in mountains, lowest in Mediterranean • Mean precipitation • is increasing in most of Atlantic and N Europe • is decreasing along Mediterranean (east) • no significant change in west of Mediterranean • Increase in precipitation per wet day • WGII Chapter 12.2

14. (a) (b) (c) (d) Unprecedented heat wave in 2003 Extreme glacier melt in the Alps Low river flow, e.g. in the Danube river 30% reduction in gross primary production of terrestrial ecosystems Wildfires Excess death (about 35,000)

15. Cryosphere Decrease in glacier volume and area (except some glaciers in Norway) Paul et al. 2002

16. Cryosphere Decrease in seasonal snow cover (at lower elevation) in Alps, in Slovakian mountains. No changes was observed in Bulgaria Reductions in annual snow cover by about 1 day/year in lowland areas of C. Europe Decrease in thickness and areal extent of permafrost in Russia. Increasing damages to infrastructure

17. Water Increased runoff due to enhanced glacier melts, formation of lakes in the Alps No significant change is detected in annual runoff in most part of Europe (Pekárová et al. 2004) Significant trends in floods have not been detected globally (increase 27, decrease 31, and no trend 137 cases) (WGII Chapter 3)

18. Marine ecosystems Northward movement of warmer-water plankton by 10 ° latitude in NE Atlantic, retreat of colder-water plankton 1000 km Beaugrand et al. 2005

19. Terrestrial ecosystems Earlier leaf unfolding dates Walther et al. 2002

20. Agriculture More favourable conditions due to warmer summer in N. Europe Olesen et al. 2006

21. Agriculture In all wine regions of Francewine quantities and qualities indices have increasedWGII Chapter 1 Alcohol concentration of wine in Alsace Duchéne and Schneider 2004

22. Human health Increase in heatwave mortality (Mediterranean, Atlantic, Central) and decline in winter mortality Movement of tick vectors northwards (e.g. Sweden) and to high latitude (e.g. Czech Republic) Earlier onset and extension of season for allergic pollen (all of Europe)

23. The observed changes are consistent with projections of impacts due to climate change WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII

24. IMPACTS

25. Climate-related hazards will mostly increase, although changes will vary geographically WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII

26. Natural hazards Temperature Precipitation SLR and increasing storminess Extreme Mean Extreme More frequent and intense heat waves, increased health related risk in most of Europe Increasing fire and peatland fire risk in Mediterranean and in C and E Europe Coastal flooding, by 2080 additional 1,6 million people to be affected each year Coastal erosion More frequent and intense drought in S and SE Europe Dispersal of insects Allergenic diseases Cold mortality declines Flash floodsacross Europe Winter floods in maritime regions Rockfalls

27. Change in recurrence of 100-year droughts 2020s 2070s

28. Climate change is likely to magnify regional differences Europe’s natural resources and assets WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII

29. Increasing ecosystem productivity Increasing water availability, increase in hydropower (15-30%) Increase in crop yield Decrease in yield for spring-sown crops (maize, sunflower, spring wheat) Increase yield variability due to increase of extreme weather events Decreasing ecosystem productivity, decrease forestry system Decreasing water availability, summer flow can decrease up to 80%, decrease in hydropower (20-50%)

30. Change in annual runoff

32. Water stress is likely to increase, as well as the number of people living in river basin under high water stress WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII

33. Water stress increases in Central and South-eastern Europe The watershed areas under sever stress increases from 19% today to 35% by 2070 The number of additional people living under water stress conditions in region of 17 western European countries increases between 16 to 44 million

34. It is anticipated that Europe’s natural systems and biodiversity will be substantially affected by climate change WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII

35. Natural systems • Small glacier will disappear and larger glaciers substantially shrink • Duration of snow cover decreases by several weeks for each °C of temperature increase in the Alps at middle elevation • Many (lowland) permafrost areas in the Arctic disappear. Loss of permafrost in Arctic will likely cause a reduction of some types of wetlands • Inland waters in S. Europe are likely to have lower volume and increased salinization

36. Ecosystems • Sea level rise causes an loss of up to 20% coastal wetlands • In mountains the tree line shifts upward by several hundred meters • Forested area increases in North and decreases in South. The northward expansion of forests is projected to reduce current tundra areas under some scenarios • Native conifers are replaced by deciduous trees in W. and C. Europe • Along the Mediterranean many ephemeral aquatic ecosystems disappears, and permanent shrinks • Higher nutrient loadings in N may intensify the eutrophication of lakes

37. Biodiversity • A large percentage of the European flora is projected to become vulnerable, endangered, critically endangered or extinct by the end of 21st century • Mountain plants community face reductions of up to 60% of species. Mountain regions may experience a lost of endemism due to invasive species • The range of plants is very likely to expand northward and contract in S. European mountains and in Mediterranean basin • In freshwater ecosystems, biodiversity will increase in the North and decrease in the South • High water temperature can produce high mortality for some mammals in the Mediterranean due to increased infections

38. Most amphibian (45-69%) and reptile (61-89%) species are virtually certain to expand their range if dispersal were unlimited. However, under no dispersal, the range most (>97%) species will become smaller 2021-2050 2051-2080 Increase Decrease

39. Climate change willpose challenges to many European economic sectorsand it is expected to alter the distribution of economic activity WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII

40. Climate change and increase of CO2 lead to overall small increases crop productivity. Agriculture will have to cope with increased water demand for irrigation in S. Europe • Recruitment and production of marine fishery in the North Atlantic are likely to increase • Winter heating demand decreases,summer cooling demand increases • Droughts and reduced runoff affect river navigation (Rhine) • Tourism along the Mediterranean is likely to decrease in summer and increase in spring and autumn. Reductions in the ski season in mountains. In the Austrian Alps 1 °C rise leads to 4 fewer weeks of skiing days in winter

41. ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY

42. Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts which is already unavoidable due to past emissions A wide array of adaptation options is available, but more extensive adaptation than currently occurring is required to reduce vulnerability. There are barriers, limits and costs, but these are not fully understood Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability, and climate change could impede nations’ abilities to achieve sustainable developmentWGII SPM

43. Adaptation to climate change is likely to benefit from experience gained in reactions to extreme events, by specifically implementing proactive climate-change risk management adaptation plans WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII

44. Preventive emergency plans and warning system to avoid and minimize the risk of natural hazards (flood warning system, evacuations, health warning systems) More economical use of natural assets (reducing water demand, reducing leaky municipal and irrigation water systems, wastewater reuse and desalinization, water price) Land use better suitable to climate change (change in species of forest, in crop species, introducing new crops and varieties, adapted seedlings, allocation land according to its changing suitability) Better management practices (changes in cultivars, introduction of multi-species planting into mono-species coniferous plantations)

45. More dynamic strategy and new sides for conservation biodiversity (protected areas, nature reserves, botanical gardens) and lessening to minimum the other human induced stresses Structural and design processes (structural measures for flood control, water reservoirs, urban planning, housing design, re-design of energy supply system, infrastructure planning and building techniques in permafrost areas) Modification of human behaviour (autonomous and reactive change recreation and travel behaviour, choose new forms in tourism, changes in temporal pattern of seaside tourism)

46. Limitations in adaptation to water stress Cost – high investment cost for building reservoirs, high energy cost for salinization Environmental regulation – reservoirs, intensification of ground water use Health concerns – wastewater

47. The great majority of organisms and ecosystems are likelyto have difficulties in adapting to climate change WGII Chapter 12, TS WGII

48. Adaptation in natural ecosystems Low lying, geologically subsiding coasts are likely to be unable to adapt to sea level rise No obvious climate adaptation options for tundra or alpine vegetation Few obvious adaptation options, specific management have yet to be defined for mountain forests

49. AT: Increased coastal erosion and flooding; stressing of marine bio-systems and habitat loss; increased tourism pressure on coasts; greater winter storm risk and vulnerability of transport to winds BO: Water logging; eutrophication of lakes and wetlands; increased coastal flooding and erosion; increased winter storm risk; reduced ski season; severe fires in drained peatland TU: Thawing of permafrost; decreased tundra area; increased coastal erosion and flooding CE: Increased frequency and magnitude of winter floods; increased variability of crop yields; increased health effects of heat waves MT: Glaciers disappearing; reduced snow-cover period; upward shift of tree line; severe biodiversity losses; reduced ski season ST: Decreased crop yield; increased soil erosion; increased SLR with positive NAO; increased salinity of inland seas ME: Reduced water availability; increased drought; severe biodiversity losses; increased forest fires; reduced summer tourism; reduced suitable cropping areas, increased energy demand in summer, reduced hydropower; increased land losses in estuaries and deltas; increased salinity and eutrophication of coastal waters

50. Summary Impacts are occurring now as a consequence of climate change Future possible impacts have been identified All regions of Europe will see negative impacts of climate change, although will also be positiveeffects, especially in North Europe Negative impacts will predominant in the South. However as warming continues, negative impacts will also dominant in North Europe Most vulnerable sectors and regions: tundra, Alpine and mediterranean-type ecosystems, low-lying coastal regions, water resources in mid-latitudes, human health in areas with low adaptive capacity