May 5, 2010 Prepared By: Dan Catlett National Hurricane Program Manager

1. An Explanation of the Comprehensive Emergency Management Systemand the role of Social Sciencein Developing Performance Measures to Achieve the Homeland Security Mission May 5, 2010 Prepared By: Dan Catlett National Hurricane Program Manager

2. The Statutory FEMA Mission: Increase the Nation’s “Resilience” by Leading and Supporting the “Comprehensive Emergency Management System” “Reduce the loss of life and property and protect the Nation from all hazards, including natural disasters, acts of terrorism, and other man-made disasters, by leading and supporting the Nation in a risk-based,comprehensive emergency management systemofpreparedness, protection, response, recovery, andmitigation.” -- BothPKEMRA and The FEMA Strategic Plan (February 2008)

3. The New FEMA Mission: Support our Citizens and First Responders to “Build, Sustain and Improve our Capability.” “FEMA’s mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from and mitigate all hazards” -- W. Craig Fugate, Administrator (6/17/09)

4. “Emergency Management” PKEMRA Definition: “(T)he governmental function that coordinates and integrates all activities necessary to build, sustain, and improve the capabilityto prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, or mitigate against threatened or actual natural disasters, acts of terrorism, or other man-made disasters.” -- The Post Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-295)

5. PKEMRA Definition: “Capability” “The term ‘capability’ means the ability to provide the means to accomplish one or more tasks under specific conditions and to specific performance standards. A capability may be achieved with any combination of properly planned, organized, equipped, trained, and exercised personnel that achieves the intended outcome.” -- The Post Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-295)

6. An alternative, SimplifiedDefinition of Emergency Management “Capability”: Capability is the Operational Capacity(“the ability to provide the means to accomplish one or more tasks”)to manage the consequences or Riskfrom a hazard or threat(“under specific conditions”)to satisfy prevailing Expectationsor performance standards (“to specific performance standards.”)

7. The “Capability Formula” EMC = OC – (R+X) Emergency Management Capability equals Operational Capacity minus the sum of Risk plusExpectations

8. Definition of Terms: • Operational Capacity = Personnel, Equipment, Facilities, Systems, Processes, Preparations, and the Readiness to use them. • Risk = Hazard (or “Threat”) x Vulnerability xConsequences(Note: This Goes A Step BeyondTraditional “Hazard Identification/Risk Assessment” or “HIRA”) • Expectations (or “Expectations Risk”)= • Internal: Employee and partner attitudes, beliefs and “conventional wisdom,” etc.); • External: Legislative priorities, academic, media “spin” and public perceptions, etc.; and • Formal: Measurable Strategic Outcomes and Outputs

9. Challenge #1: “Capability” cannot be effectively determined without a standardized determinations of Capacity, Risk or Expectations.” Consequently “Capacity” often gets measured, then labeled “Capability.”

10. Challenge # 2: Unity of Effort is the product of Unity of Purpose; ACommon Operating Picture is the product of a Common Planning Picture.

11. BOTH Unity of Purpose And a Common Planning Picture. are dependent on a common, consensus standards for assessing Capacity, Riskand Expectations-based Capability

12. The Solution: Standardized assessments of Capacity, Risk and Expectations – included the development of a “planning level event” – to create consistent planning assumptions (NOT planning formats/guidelines such as the TCL, the IPS, etc.) for the Comprehensive Emergency Management System

13. The “Risk-Based, Comprehensive Emergency Management System” -- Post Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act (“PKEMRA” -- HR 5441, Sec. 503[b][1]) Decrease Risk (R) Increase Operational Capacity (OC) BUILD CAPABILITY “Operational Readiness” PRE-Event Strategy Development & Process Planning PREPARE MITIGATE EXERCISE or ACTUAL EVENT RESPOND RECOVER PROTECT (RE)ASSESSMENTS:Operational Capacity, Risk & Expectations DEPLOY CAPABILITY “Operational Response” POST-Event

14. The “Risk-Based, Comprehensive Emergency Management System” -- Post Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act (“PKEMRA” -- HR 5441, Sec. 503[b][1]) Decrease Risk (R) Increase Operational Capacity (OC) BUILD CAPABILITY: “Operational Readiness” Unity of PURPOSE Common PLANNING Picture PRE-Event Strategy Development & Process Planning PREPARE MITIGATE EXERCISE or ACTUAL EVENT RESPOND RECOVER PROTECT (RE)ASSESSMENTS:Operational Capacity, Risk & Expectations DEPLOY CAPABILITY “Operational Response” Unity of EFFORT Common OPERATING Picture POST-Event

15. Increase Operational Capacity (OC) Decrease Risk (R) Permanently Reduce Riskfrom future eventsvia traditional Mitigationmeasures such as: Land Use and Building Regulation, Structural Retrofit, permanent risk reduction projects, etc. IncreaseOperational Effectivenessvia traditional "Preparedness Cycle” Activities such as: Analyzing, Assessing, Planning, Training, Staffing, Equipping, etc. PRE-Event BUILD CAPABILITY “Operational Readiness” Strategy Development & Process Planning PREPARE MITIGATE EXERCISE or ACTUAL EVENT RESPOND RECOVER PROTECT (RE)ASSESSMENTS: Capacity, Risk & Expectations (RE)ASSESSMENTS:Operational Capacity, Risk & Expectations DEPLOY CAPABILITY “Operational Response” POST-Event Temporarily Reduce Riskin responseto a presentthreat via “Protective Actions” – Population Protection (i.e. evacuation, sheltering, SAR, etc.) as well as temporary risk reduction measures (shutters, sandbags, levee fortification, etc.) SupplementOperational Capacityvia Response& RecoveryOperations, such as Mutual Aid, State Declaration, EMAC, and federal declaration (Stafford Act) through full National Response Framework utilization .

16. “SYSTEMATIC” CAPABILITY-BUILDING OVER TIME = STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT & PROCESS PLANNING S - CAPABILITY+ PRE-EVENT READINESS S S S E E E POST-EVENT OPERATIONS - TIME + = EXERCISE OR EVENT E

17. “MULTI-HAZARD/EVENT” CAPABILITY-BUILDING = STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT & PROCESS PLANNING S - CAPABILITY+ PRE-EVENT READINESS S S S S S S S S S E E E S S S E E E E E E POST-EVENT OPERATIONS - TIME + = EXERCISE OR EVENT E

18. “SYSTEMATIC” CAPABILITY-BUILDING OVER TIME = STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT & PROCESS PLANNING S - CAPABILITY+ PRE-EVENT READINESS S S S E E E POST-EVENT OPERATIONS - TIME + = EXERCISE OR EVENT E

19. = STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT & PROCESS PLANNING S CAPABILITY+ - PRE-EVENT Katrina S S S E E POST-EVENT - TIME + = EXERCISE OR EVENT E

20. = STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT & PROCESS PLANNING S CAPABILITY+ - PRE-EVENT PKEMRA Katrina S S S E E POST-EVENT - TIME + = EXERCISE OR EVENT E

21. The Resilience Cycle Build Resilience Through Preparedness Build, Sustain or ImproveREADINESS Build, Sustain or Improve RESISTANCE PRE-Event Strategy Development & Process Planning INCIDENT or EVENT WITHSTAND The Impact ADAPT To “New Normal” RECOVER Community Functionality & Self-Sufficiency RESPOND To Emergency and Crisis Conditions POST-Event Achieve Resilience Through Operations Operations

22. The Resilience Cycle Build Resilience Through Preparedness Build, Sustain or ImprovePREPAREDNESS Reduce Risk through MITIGATION PRE-Event BUILD CAPABILITY Strategy Development & Process Planning PREPARE MITIGATE INCIDENT or EVENT S E RESPOND RECOVER PROTECT PROTECT Against The Impact ADAPT To The “New Normal” DEPLOY CAPABILITY RECOVER Community Functionality and Self-Sufficiency RESPOND To Emergency and Crisis Conditions POST-Event Achieve Resilience Through Operations Operations

23. The “Resilience Formula” Resilience (Z) equals Time To New Normal Divided by the Event Z = TTNN ÷ E

24. RECOVERY RESPONSE Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs and “Resilience”