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1-year Review of 2018 Employment Industry Forecast. Division of Economic Development Louisiana State University. Louisiana Workforce Commission. Methodology. Baseline statistical model from historical data using the MicroMatrix software (846 regional industry forecasts)

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1-year Review of 2018 Employment Industry Forecast

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1 year review of 2018 employment industry forecast l.jpg

1-year Review of2018 Employment Industry Forecast

Division of Economic Development

Louisiana State University

Louisiana Workforce Commission


Methodology l.jpg

Methodology

  • Baseline statistical model from historical data using the MicroMatrix software (846 regional industry forecasts)

  • Review statistical forecasts by industry

    • Economic causes of trends

    • Input from Louisiana driver firms

    • Economic development projects and major announcements

  • Staffing patterns are applied to convert industry projections to occupations

  • Replacement rates are applied to create total demand

  • In-demand occupations are identified


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Mid-cycle Review

  • Input from driver firms

  • Major economic events

    • Economic Development Projects

    • BP Oil Spill

    • Health Care Reform

  • Staffing Patterns

  • Replacement Rates


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Driver Firms


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Region 1 (New Orleans)NAICS 331:Primary Metal Manufacturing


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Region 1 (New Orleans)NAICS 333:Machinery Manufacturing


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Region 1 (New Orleans)NAICS 336:Transportation Equipment Manufacturing


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Region 1 (New Orleans)NAICS 721:Accommodation


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Region 2 (Baton Rouge)NAICS 321:Wood Product Manufacturing


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Region 2 (Baton Rouge)NAICS 524:Insurance Carriers and Related Activities


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Region 2 (Baton Rouge)NAICS 920:State Government


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Region 5 (Lake Charles)NAICS 336:Transportation Equipment Manufacturing


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Region 5 (Lake Charles)NAICS 721:Support Activities for Transportation


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Region 7 (Shreveport)NAICS 333:Machinery Manufacturing


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Region 7 (Shreveport)NAICS 336:Transportation Equipment Manufacturing


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Region 8 (Monroe)NAICS 336:Transportation Equipment Manufacturing


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Region 8 (Monroe)NAICS 325:Chemical Manufacturing


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Oil Spill

  • Significant short-term impact to industries that depend on the Gulf of Mexico:

    • Fishing, Shrimping, Oystering, Crabbing

    • Tourism

    • Oil and Gas Extraction and Support Activities

  • Long term impacts remain uncertain (much more clarity after one year passes)


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Health Reform

  • Significant Expansion of Insurance Coverage

    • 16 million uninsured would purchase insurance through exchanges by 2019

    • 16 million additional people on Medicaid or CHIP by 2019

    • Expansions alone would add $164 billion to the federal deficit in 2018

    • Per capita, uninsured individuals spend 60% less than insured individuals. For the group that would gain coverage, per capita spending would rise by 25-60 percent (bringing their per capita spending to 75-90% of those already insured)

  • Significant reduction in reimbursements

    • Changes to federal spending (including reduced reimbursements) alone would reduce the federal deficit by $116 billion


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Net Effect of Health Reform?

  • The big negative and big positive effects are likely of similar magnitude

  • Care within Medicare population may decrease while care will increase for the newly insured

  • Downward cost pressure of reduced reimbursements will likely change the mix of workers needed


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Industry Summary

  • Overall effect of recommended changes is an increase in 2018 forecast for statewide employment of 2,422.

  • New Orleans, Shreveport, and Lake Charles RLMAs had increases in overall forecasted employment relative to the current 2018 forecast.

  • Baton Rouge, Alexandria, and Monroe RLMAs had modest decreases to the 2018 forecast resulting from this year’s review.

  • Total forecasted 2018 employment for the Lafayette and Houma RLMAs remained unchanged after review.

  • Changes recommended to staffing patterns


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Occupational Changes

  • For Ambulatory Healthcare Services and Hospitals, staffing patterns were changed to reflect:

    • Shift to allied health professionals

    • Increased IT staff to support electronic medical records


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