Bssc 2011 st petersburg 26 august 2011
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BSSC 2011 St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011. Regional Climate Change Assessments as a Service to Society: The BACC Example. Marcus Reckermann Hans-Jörg Isemer Hans von Storch Anders Omstedt and the BACC Author Team. Overview. Examples and principles for BACC-type assessments

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BSSC 2011 St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011

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Bssc 2011 st petersburg 26 august 2011

BSSC 2011 St. Petersburg, 26 August 2011

Regional Climate Change Assessments as a Service to Society: The BACC Example

Marcus ReckermannHans-Jörg Isemer Hans von StorchAnders Omstedt

and the BACC Author Team


Overview

Overview

  • Examples and principles for BACC-type assessments

  • BACC results (published 2008)

  • BACC 2


Why regional climate change assessments

Why regional climate change assessments?

Why care about regional climate change?

  • Global assessment done by IPCC (AR4 from 2007)

  • Climate changes NOT uniformly around the world

  • Impacts differ greatly around the world

  • Relevant political decisions are taken locally (adaptation)

  • Public and policy makers need scientifc information

  • Information scattered in numerous publications, largely difficult to access (language), let alone for non-scientists

    → Regional Climate Offices

    → Regional Climate Change Assessments


Bssc 2011 st petersburg 26 august 2011

BACC (2005-2008)

Climate Report for the Metropolitan Region of Hamburg (2007-2010)

BACC II (2009-2013)

NOSCCA North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (2010-2014)

2

BACC-like assessments


Bssc 2011 st petersburg 26 august 2011

Organisation

BALTEX Science Steering Group and Scientific community

The BACC process

BACC Science Steering Committee

Lead authors

selects

Draft chapter outlines and select

Contributing authors

1st draft

Management and Coordination ( BALTEX Secretariat )

Expert review

2nd draft

Expert review

Similar to IPCC process but no government reviewStrictly scientific

Final draft

Editing and Formatting

Publication


Bssc 2011 st petersburg 26 august 2011

Principles of BACC-like assessments

Principles…

  • Writing team of experts from different expertises, lead authors responsible for grand topics (IPCC-style)Lead authors recruit contributing authors with special expertise

  • Exclusive use of „current legitimate knowledge“… What is that?

    • published and publicly available

    • peer reviewed articles from scientific journals

    • institutional reports

    • conference proceedings

    • No NGO or private company publications (e.g. Greenpeace, WWF, Shell, Munich-Re etc.)

    • No unpublished results

  • Objectivity: No mixing of personal views, agendas or missions to be mixed up with the scientific status; consensus view to be reached if possible

  • If consensus cannot be reached, this must be stated („we agree that we disagree“), and conflicting views should be described

  • Minority views should not be ignored if they are scientifically plausible


Baltex assessment of climate change for the baltic sea basin bacc

BACCground

  • Regional climate change assessments needed (IPCC has been doing global climate change assessments since 1990)

  • Vast amount of material available in the Baltic Sea basin (also partly inaccessible previousely).

    Purpose

  • to provide the scientific community (and the public) with an assessmentof ongoing and future climate change in the Baltic Sea Basin

  • is done by reviewing and assessing published scientific knowledge on climate change in the Basin

BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea basin - BACC

BACC Book published in January 2008

  • 84 authors from 13 countries contributed

  • > 2000 references, ~ 10 % non-English literature

  • Stakeholder involvement: Helsinki Commission (HELCOM) involved


Bssc 2011 st petersburg 26 august 2011

BACC

Chapter 1

Introduction and Summary

Lead Authors: Hans von Storch, Anders Omstedt

Chapter 2

Past and current climate change

Lead Authors: Raino Heino, Heikki Tuomenvirta, Valery Vuglinskiy, Bo Gustafsson

Chapter 3

Projections of future anthropogenic climate change

Lead Author: L. Phil Graham

Chapter 4

Climate-related change in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems

Lead Author: Benjamin Smith

Chapter 5

Climate-related marine ecosystem change

Lead Authors: Joachim W. Dippner, Ilppo Vuorinen

Annexes

Various authors provide up-to-date background “textbook” knowledge on all aspects of BACC


Bssc 2011 st petersburg 26 august 2011

BACC

Past and current climate change

Air Temperature

Changes in Baltic Sea basin near-surface air temperature for the period 1871-2004 relative to 1961-1990

  • Significant positive trend with regional and seasonal variations

  • Warming trend in the north: + 1 ºC; in the south: + 0.7 ºC per 100 yrs (basin: + 0.85 ºC)

  • Warming trend is largest in spring

  • Regional change is slightly larger than on the global scale (IPCC-AR4: + 0.74 ºC per 100 yrs)


Bssc 2011 st petersburg 26 august 2011

BACC

Past and current climate change

Precipitation

  • Large spatial and seasonal variations of precipitation, but trends towards…

    • More rain in winter (especially in the south)

    • More rain in spring (especially in the north)

    • Less rain in summer (especially in the south)

    • Overall slight increase

Changes of precipitation over the Baltic Sea basin as ratios of the period 1976-2000 relative to 1951-1975Light green = Precipitation decreaseDark green = Precipitation increase


Bssc 2011 st petersburg 26 august 2011

BACC

Past and current climate change

River ice

Earlier ice break up in Tornionjoki river (Finland)


Bssc 2011 st petersburg 26 august 2011

BACC

Past and current climate change

Wind and Storminess

Number of low pressure systems (p<980 hPa) in Stockholm and Lund

There is NO trend in windiness or storminess over the Baltic Sea Basin!


Bssc 2011 st petersburg 26 august 2011

BACC

Past and current climate change

Sea ice

Winter 2007/2008 mildest ever recorded


Bssc 2011 st petersburg 26 august 2011

BACC

Projections of future anthropogenic climate change

Air Temperature

Winter

RCM: HIRHAM

RCM projection for 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990

(A2 scenario)

RCM: RCAO

GCM: HadAM3H

GCM: ECHAM4/OPYC


Bssc 2011 st petersburg 26 august 2011

BACC

Projections of future anthropogenic climate change

Air Temperature

Air Temperature Animation

RCM projection for 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990

(A2 scenario)


Bssc 2011 st petersburg 26 august 2011

BACC

Projections of future anthropogenic climate change

Precipitation

Precipitation Animation

RCM projection for 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990

(A2 scenario)


Bssc 2011 st petersburg 26 august 2011

BACC

Projections of future anthropogenic climate change

Total riverine discharge to the Baltic Sea

RCAO projections for 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990

Discharge peaks come earlier in the year

Overall amounts increased

Lower salinities expected


Bssc 2011 st petersburg 26 august 2011

BACC

Projections of future anthropogenic climate change

Sea ice

Mean number of ice days simulated by RCAO

Present winter

For the period 2071-2100 using the A2 emission scenario

For the period 2071-2100 using the B2 emission scenario


Bssc 2011 st petersburg 26 august 2011

BACC

Terrestrial ecosystems

The expected future warming is associated to a possibly accelerated continuation of the present trends in

  • Earlier spring phenological phases,

  • Northward species shifts

  • Increased growth and vigour of vegetation

Terrestrial ecosystems in the south are projected to be a carbon source by the end of the century


Bssc 2011 st petersburg 26 august 2011

BACC

Impacts on marine ecosystems

… increase of temperature…

  • Higher metabolic rates

  • Impact on acclimation capacity

  • Reduce the general fitness

  • Reduce enzyme activities

  • Shift in species composition (phytoplankton)

  • Enhanced cyanobacteria blooms

… decrease of salinity…

  • Osmotic stress

  • Shift in species composition (phyto– & zooplankton)

  • Egg survival

  • Food quality for fish (growth rate)

  • Distribution of benthos

  • Reduction of fitness

  • Invading species

… reduction in sea ice…

  • Ringed seal survival


Bssc 2011 st petersburg 26 august 2011

BACC II: An update to BACC to be published in 2014

1st BACC II Lead Author Team Meeting in Gothenburg, Sweden23-24 November 2010

2nd BACC II Lead Author Team Meeting in Hamburg, Germany28-29 March 2011


Bssc 2011 st petersburg 26 august 2011

BACC II: An update to BACC to be published in 2014

  • Science Steering Group constituted mostly from BACC I Lead Authors

  • New lead authors and contributing authors (23 to date)

  • New in BACC II

    • Past climate variability: Holocene (10.000 yr) and historical time frame (1000 yr)

    • Sea level change

    • Socio-economic impacts: Agriculture and forestry, Urban complexes, Fisheries and aquaculture

    • Attributing causes of regional climate change:

      • Global warming, aerosols (natural and pollutants), land cover and resource management

    • „Summary brochure for policy makers and the public“


Value for the managing of scientific knowledge

  • thebaccblog.blogspot.com

Value for the managing of scientific knowledge

Value for society of BACC-type assessment reports

  • Overview over the current conensus (and dissensus) view over the current state of research for

    • scientists

    • stakeholders

    • public

      Go to our websites

      www.baltex-research.eu/BACC2


Thank you

Thank you!


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