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Fingerprinting Native and Non-native Biodiversity, The Theory of Biotic Acceptance, and, the story of a challenging puzzle. Tom Stohlgren (USGS), John Schnase/Neal Most Team (NASA), Mohammed Kalkhan (CSU) Catherine Jarnevich, Tracy Davern, Geneva Chong (USGS),

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Main project web page niiss

Fingerprinting Native and Non-native Biodiversity, The Theory of Biotic Acceptance,and, the story of a challenging puzzle.

Tom Stohlgren (USGS), John Schnase/Neal Most Team (NASA),

Mohammed Kalkhan (CSU)

Catherine Jarnevich, Tracy Davern, Geneva Chong (USGS),

Paul Evangelista and David Barnett (CSU), with help from . . .

Greg Newman, Jim Graham, Jon Freeman, Alycia Waters,

Sara Simonson (NREL), John Kartesz (BONAP),Bruce Peterjohn,

Pam Fuller (USGS), Curt Flather (USFS),

and many others!

Main Project Web Page http://www.NIISS.org

Created Sept. 2004


Main project web page niiss

We define “biotic acceptance” as the tendency of natural ecosystems to accommodate the establishment and coexistence of non-native species despite the presence and abundance of native species.

We’re simple ecologists,

with a ground-up approach!

Puzzle Piece #1: Talented

and enthusiastic research team


Small scale measurements

Small-scale measurements?

What allowed us to Scale-Up?

  • Woody Turner’s “Biological Fingerprinting” workshop in NY – a challenge to scale-up!

  • Local, state, national and international, interest in invasive species science and biodiversity.

  • Partnerships with scientists and program managers who are not afraid to think big (Jim, John, Ed, Woody, the Jeff’s, Neal (NASA); Sue, Sharon, Bob, Mark, Pam (USGS) and many others.

  • A talented and enthusiastic research team.


Main project web page niiss

Puzzle Piece #2: Careful

ground-based, multi-scale measurements


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Bighorn Canyon NRA

N. Mixed grass

Riparian

Charles Russell NWR

Northern Mixed Prairie

Wild Horse NWP

Cushion Plant

Yellowstone N.P.

Wet Meadow

Pipestone NM

Tallgrass Prairie

Mixed grass

Old Aspen

Wind Cave NP

Mixed Grass Prairie

Grand Staircase-

Escalante NM

Desert Shrub

Desert MixedGrass

Rabbitbrush

Sage, Blackbrush

Juniper, Desert Shortgrass

Pinyon Pin-

Pinyon-Juniper

Pinyon-Juiper-Manzanita

Pinyon-Juniper-Oak

Pinyon-Juniper-Sage

Aspen, Spring

Wet Meadow

Perennial Riparian

Mountain Shrub

Rocky Mountain N.P.

Tundra

Sublapine-Limber Pine

Spruce Fir

Lodgepole Pine

Douglas Fir

Ponderosa Pine

Willow

Wet Meadow

Dry Meadow

Aspen

Shortgrass Steppe

Riparian, Sage

Ponderosa Pine

Puzzle Piece #3: Comparable measurements in many vegetation types and biomes.

37 Vegetation types

Mean = 19.6 plots/type

Median = 11 plots per type

727 1000-m2 subplots

7,042 1-m2 subplots


Main project web page niiss

5

y = 0.033x2 + 0.102x – 0.028

R2 = 0.132

P < 0.0001

Spring

4

3

Aspen CO

Slope of Native to Non-native

Species Richness

2

1

0

-1

Tallgrass

1

10

100

1000

Plot Area (m2)

Puzzle Piece #4: Understanding the effects of scale on alpha diversity.

Biotic acceptance increases among communities (regionally)

and the changing relationship may be non-linear.


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Puzzle Piece #5: Understanding the effects of scale on Beta diversity:

i.e., at regional scales.

Vegetation-type- and regional-scale

Biotic acceptance increases more in communities

high in beta diversity (i.e., high species accumulation curves;

and high/optimum resources – water, light, nutrients, warmth).


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Puzzle Piece #6: Understanding

temporal changes in diversity:

i.e., 400 years of invasion and continuing.

Biotic acceptance may increase with increasing establishment of non-native species.

This appears to be a much stronger force than the negative effects of native species richness and biomass with R2 values between 0.43 and 0.58.


Main project web page niiss

Bighorn Canyon NRA

N. Mixed grass

Riparian

Charles Russell NWR

Northern Mixed Prairie

Wild Horse NWP

Cushion Plant

Yellowstone N.P.

Wet Meadow

Pipestone NM

Tallgrass Prairie

Mixed grass

Old Aspen

Wind Cave NP

Mixed Grass Prairie

Grand Staircase-

Escalante NM

Desert Shrub

Desert MixedGrass

Rabbitbrush

Sage, Blackbrush

Juniper, Desert Shortgrass

Pinyon Pin-

Pinyon-Juniper

Pinyon-Juiper-Manzanita

Pinyon-Juniper-Oak

Pinyon-Juniper-Sage

Aspen, Spring

Wet Meadow

Perennial Riparian

Mountain Shrub

Rocky Mountain N.P.

Tundra

Sublapine-Limber Pine

Spruce Fir

Lodgepole Pine

Douglas Fir

Ponderosa Pine

Willow

Wet Meadow

Dry Meadow

Aspen

Shortgrass Steppe

Riparian, Sage

Ponderosa Pine

Puzzle Piece #7 Link with other studies – Past, present, and future:

Stohlgren et al. 1997, 1999; Lonsdale 1999, Levine 2000, Stohlgren et al. 2001, 2003

The Present

Gilbert and

Lechowicz. 2005

Davies et

al. 2005

Bruno

et al. 2004

Keeley

et al.

2003

Sax

2002,

Dark

2004

Brown and Peet.

2003, Friedly et al.

2004

Bob Peet

VegBank Data

Jim Quinn

Data

Many other studies in different vegetation types are demonstrating

biotic acceptance at multiple spatial scales or large scales.


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Puzzle Piece #8: regional verification.

Stohlgren et al. 2005a -- Geez! Those are very high R2 values!


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Methods: (1) Gather data; (2) Assess data quality; (3) evaluate patterns (GIS maps, regressions, cross-correlations

Puzzle Piece #9: Gather and evaluate national databases.

Stohlgren et al. 2005b. Species richness and patterns of invasion in plants, birds,

and fishes in the United States. Biological Invasions (In Press)

Bruce Peterjohn

(Breeding Bird Survey = 4,000 routes, 10 years, and bird atlases = life times of

birding)

John Kartesz, Biota of North America

Program, Univ. North Carolina. (46 states,

Over 3000 counties, 500,000 records,

10 years of research, standard reference).

Pam Fuller, South Florida-Caribbean

Science Center, USGS (10 years of

Research, >200,000 records and Larry

Master, NatureServe’s huge database).

Stohlgren, Barnett, and Flather are just “data miners”


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> 1080

Native plant species/county

Non-native plant species/county

> 170


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Native bird species/county

Non-indigenous bird species/county


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Native fish species/watershed

Non-indigenous fish species/watershed


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Puzzle Piece #10: Quantify cross-taxa patterns Stohlgren et al. 2005b Biological Invasions (in press)


Results are encouraging so far

Results are encouraging, so far . . .

  • Native plant, bird, and fish densities generally track latitude, temperature, precip., and each other (i.e., habitat heterogeneity) all “proven” factors of “local determinism,” but no sign of the “saturation of species.”

  • Human factors (population, road density, land-use change) are weakly correlated to native diversity, and more strongly correlated to non-native diversity, but environmental factors may be more proximate predictors of native and non-native species diversity.

  • At county scales, non-native species densities also track native species densities (for plants, birds, and fish) – and the biological groups track each other – “the rich get richer” within and across biological groups, and this pattern is strongly predictable!

This is great!


Main project web page niiss

Tamarisk

APHIS

National Institute of Invasive Species Science

Global Organism Detection and Monitoring System

Objective:Capturing information (location data, species characteristics, and environmental attributes) on all taxa of invasive species to detect, control, and monitor their spread. Integrating these data to serve land managers, land owners, researchers, government officials, and the public.

From the field…

To the web…

  • Multiple data types

  • Upload via the web in three formats

    • Palm programs (weed mapping and vegetation survey)

    • GIS Shapefile

    • Tab-delimited text file

  • User maps fields to database fields

  • Require specific format (e.g. standardized measurements)

  • Based on enterprise database, custom COM objects, and ASP pages

  • Interactive map displaying invasive species distributions

  • Add new locations by clicking the map

  • Query the database by species, project, or area

  • Real-time statistics and links to research

  • Species profiles

  • Watch lists

Rocky Mountain National Park

To the modeling…

  • Current and potential abundance and distribution

  • Probability maps

  • Gaps in knowledge from uncertainty maps

  • Smart surveys

  • Select priority species and sites

  • Vulnerability and risk analysis

Filed crews use palmtops downloaded to the database via phones or computers.

To the future…

  • Tentative release date September 2005

  • E-mail new species report to manager

  • On-line modeling capabilities

  • Download selected data

  • PDF report with map, profile, control information, and model

To the database…

  • SQL Server- extensible and standardized

  • Three main, required fields

    • Area: geographic location

    • Visit: date area was visited

    • OrganismData: unique organism id for a visit

  • Capture metadata, auxiliary data, spatial data (e.g. shapefile for area), treatments (control information), etc.

Probability of occurrence for leafy spurge in Colorado modeled and tested using informations from 45 datasets.

Puzzle Piece #11: Improve data handling and promote data sharing.

URL: http://www.niiss.org


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Puzzle Piece #12: Improve data accessibility -- www.niiss.org


Main project web page niiss

Puzzle Piece #13: Developing strategies for others to effectively use your data, capabilities, and services

– e.g., Risk Assessment and Early Detection / Rapid Response Needs

Site

Need to know:

1. Current distribution and abundance,

2. Data completeness,

3. Potential dist. and abund.,

4. Potential rate of spread,

5. Risks/Impacts (env. & econ & human health)

6. Containment Potential

7. Opportunity costs

8. Legal mandates

To select Priority Species and Priority Sites

County, State, Region

Nation

Rarely done

Stohlgren, T. and J. Schnase. 2005. Biological hazards: What we need to know about invasive species.

Risk Analysis Journal (In Press)

Requires modeling


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Puzzle Piece #14: Improve spatial modeling and forecasting capabilities.

THE KEY PIECE TO THE PUZZLE!

For more information see www.NIISS.org


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Preliminary Model of Potential Spread in 10 Years

Control/

Restoration

Monitoring

Sites

Early Detection

Rapid Response Sites

Priority

Survey Sites

Containment

Boundary

10 Years


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Puzzle Piece #15: Adjust to changing customer needs.

Hackberry Canyon Watershed, Utah

“Presence Maps”

Tamarisk locations

“Biomass Maps” (g/0.5m2)


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We have many pieces of the puzzle in place.

We are integrating across disciplines and programs (NASA/USGS).

We have made progress in many areas.

We are producing valuable products.

We still have much of our work ahead of us to complete the puzzle.

Great

Research

Team

Many more

datasets

Alpha, Beta, and

Gamma diversity

Fail-proof

Web-service

Multi-scale

Surveys

Web

focus

and

tools

Many more taxa

(diseases/

pathogens)

Improved

Decision

Support

Additional

Spatial &

Temporal

models

Automated

data ingest and

modeling

Cross-

Taxa

tests

Fine-

Scale

Maps

Spp. +

habitats

Improved

data handling

and access

Backup

systems

Regional &

National data

NIISS

Local/

Regional verification

Cluster computing

and modeling

Links to other studies

Customers are

lining up

EDRR

For more information see www.NIISS.org


Main project web page niiss

Lots on invaders! More every day!

Plant, Animals, and Diseases

Aquatic and Terrestrial


Main project web page niiss

  • Managing Invasive Species is:

  • Urgent: Extremely high demand for meeting more customers needs. Need technology assisted field techniques; iterative field and modeling methods for invasive species surveys; data entry/mapping tools linked to large relational databases, remote sensing, and GIS tools, and economic analyses – NOW!

2. Difficult: Issues of scaling, data synergy, data hording, limited funds, multiple spatial scales, multiple biological groups, and human and animal behavior. It also involves a “Grand Challenge” Ecological forecasting of biological organisms – frontiers in science.

3. Costly: Prevention, early detection and rapid assessment, survey and monitoring, research, and restoration carry a high price.

BUT – the cost of inaction is far greater $120 B/yr, lost production, increased maintenance, species loss, habitat degradation, costs to human health!


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Biodiversity Outlook:

  • Over much of the US, and maybe the globe, “the rich get richer.”

  • The invasion is in the early stages.

  • Establishment + inevitable disturbance will facilitate future invasion.

  • More sites will become dominated by invaders over time.

  • Species extinction will be slow, but significant, relative to the invasion.

  • Coexistence is the rule – but extirpation, hybridization, habitat degradation, diseases, pathogens, and extinction are inevitable!


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Scale-Up! Speed up! Invest More!

For more information see www.NIISS.org


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