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Evolution of Digital Media Technologies: Diffusion Theory

Evolution of Digital Media Technologies: Diffusion Theory. Kathy E. Gill 17 October 2006. Overview. Recap Last Week Context – Alphabet Soup More Theory Group Discussion Course Projects. Recap . Digital media differ from traditional mass media in three essential ways: Time, Space

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Evolution of Digital Media Technologies: Diffusion Theory

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  1. Evolution of Digital Media Technologies:Diffusion Theory Kathy E. Gill 17 October 2006

  2. Overview • Recap Last Week • Context – Alphabet Soup • More Theory • Group Discussion • Course Projects

  3. Recap • Digital media differ from traditional mass media in three essential ways: • Time, Space • Bits v Atoms • Communication theories attempt to explain how and why things happen like they do

  4. Theories(1/2)

  5. Theories(2/2)

  6. Additional Context • Clip from It Happened One Night, 1934 • A series of “quotables”

  7. The Telegraph (1 of 2) • Separated communication from transportation • Changed the meaning of space (made the world smaller) • Helped change the meaning of time (time zones) • The Great Western Railway was the first to adopt London time in November 1840. • Railroads instituted time zones in the US and Canada on 18 November 1883.

  8. The Telegraph (2 of 2) • "This is the age of telegrams. The public is accustomed to the consideration of facts in the briefest terms.“The Science Record for 1873 • Influenced journalism (objectivity) and language (“telegraph style”) • From the clip: $2.60 in 1934 = ~$40.00 today • For $40 …. what communication services can we buy?

  9. Paradox • Pre-voice telephony – we transferred “data” (eg, wire transfers of money) • Digital age – our “voice” is now “data” (zeros-and-ones)

  10. Quotable 1 “This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.”-- Western Union internal memo, 1876

  11. Quotable 2 “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?”-- H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927

  12. Quotable 3 “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”-- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

  13. Quotable 4 “Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.”-- Popular Mechanics, 1949

  14. What Leads To Adoption? • Clearly, most of us peer into a cloudy ball, not a crystal one • We’ll look at the adoption of computing technologies after • Alphabet soup • Supervening Social Necessity • Rogers Diffusion Theory

  15. Why use a technology?(1/2) • Cognitive Needs – Desire (demand) for information, knowledge, understanding • Affective Needs – Aesthetic, pleasurable, and emotional experiences • Personal Integrative Needs – Inner-directed, deal with credibility, confidence, stability, and status • Social Integrative Needs – Outer-directed, strengthening relationships with family, friends, the world • Escapist Needs – Desire for tension release or diversion - Katz, Gurevitch, and Haas

  16. Why use a technology?(2/2) • Availability • Cost • Network effects • Buzz/coolness factor • Makes something easier to do • ??

  17. Digital Communication Today • WWW, E-mail, FTP • PDF, PPT, RTF, XLS • HTML, XHTML, XML, CSS, JS • GIF, JPG, PNG, SWF, MOV, AVI • Perl, VB, CF, ASP, PHP • P2P • MSN, AOL, Google, Yahoo!, About.com • iPod, Creative Zen, iRiver, PlaysForSure • MySpace, YouTube, Slashdot • RSS, HDTV, BlueRay … • Anything else?

  18. Why … • Do we adopt one technology and not another? • VHS v Beta • Apple’s Newton v Palm • + or –R DVD media

  19. Supervening Social Necessity • Winston’s main contention • More than “build a better mousetrap” : VoIP from last week: “phones work fine” – what need is being met with the new technology • Advertising • One goal is to build this “need” • FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt)

  20. Rogers - Diffusion Theory • Identified four main elements of an innovation-diffusion process • Innovation • Social system • Time • Communications channels

  21. Linear innovation-diffusion theory • The process by which aninnovationiscommunicatedthrough certainchannelsover time among the members of asocial system. Rogers, 1995, page 5

  22. Innovation • An idea, practice, or object that is perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption

  23. Communication • A process in which participants create and share information with one another in order to reach mutual understanding

  24. Time • The adoption model follows an “s” shape curve over time

  25. Forecast: US Household Technology Adoption, 2005-2010 Forrester Reports. July 2005, Data Overview “The State Of Consumers And Technology: Benchmark 2005”

  26. Social System • A set of interrelated units that are engaged in joint problem-solving to accomplish a common goal. • Members or units of a social system may be individuals, informal groups, organizations, and/or subsystems.

  27. Innovation-Decision Process • The mental process through which an individual passes : from knowledge to forming an attitude toward the innovation (adopt, reject)

  28. Rogers: Five steps of adoption • Knowledge • Persuasion • Decision (adopt or reject) • Implementation • Confirmation

  29. Critical mass(1/2) • Rogers (1995) : "the critical mass occurs at the point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so that the innovation's further rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining.”

  30. Critical mass(2/2) • The critical mass theory is a social system perspective, while the dominant design theory is a technology perspective. • The irreversible phase may take place when not only the critical mass point is overcome but also the dominant design is brought about at least in terms of the technological innovation. • Examples?

  31. Adopter categories • Innovators • Early adopters • Early majority • Late majority • Laggards

  32. Technological Innovations • Hardware - the tool that embodies the technology as a material or physical object. • Software - the knowledge base for the tool

  33. For additional thought … • Increasing capacity w/out adding wires (telegraph). Parallels today? • Grey v Bell …. Jobs v Gates? • What is today’s “railroad” sector? • Price models: Bell’s renting the phone, IBM’s renting the mainframe, software constant upgrades …

  34. Discussion • Four groups -> discuss key learnings and questions from main readings • Examples of supervening social necessity and law of unintended consequences? • What events/experiences came to mind during these readings? • Where did you find yourself saying ‘Yeah!’ or ‘No way!’? • What old images/concepts are being called into question? • How are you managing the sea of info around you?

  35. Projects • Peer groups – continue to talk about project ideas • On Your Own – using UW Library resources, search for relevant scholarly material on your subject

  36. Feedback • On 3x5 card (anonymous unless you want feedback from me) • How will you apply what you have learned tonight? • If we participated like this again, what would you like us to do differently? Why?

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