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2d Weather Squadron

Fly – Fight - Win. 2d Weather Squadron. Galaxy 15 Anomaly Space Weather Assessment 5 Apr 2010. Galaxy 15. Commercial television provider for North America Owned by Intelsat (owns fleet of 12 satellites) Located at 133 West in GEO Anomaly occurred on 5 Apr at 9:48 UTC (0:48 L)

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2d Weather Squadron

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  1. Fly – Fight - Win 2d Weather Squadron Galaxy 15 Anomaly Space Weather Assessment 5 Apr 2010

  2. Galaxy 15 • Commercial television provider for North America • Owned by Intelsat (owns fleet of 12 satellites) • Located at 133 West in GEO • Anomaly occurred on 5 Apr at 9:48 UTC (0:48 L) • Mitigation: shifted all traffic to on-orbit spare Galaxy 12 • Launched in 2005 • Should have lasted until 2022 • Probable cause of anomaly: satellite surface charging

  3. Ingredients for Satellite Charging • Most upsets occur • Between local midnight and local dawn • Greatest number occur between 00L and 01L • This is the main time window for satellite eclipse • Surface Charging • satellites can reach much larger potentials when in eclipse than when in sunlight • level of surface charging has a direct correlation to Kp • higher Kp can imply higher potentials being observed • electrostatic discharge often occurs near exit of eclipse • discharge is frequently the mechanism causing damage

  4. Satellite in Eclipse • Satellite is in eclipse when in the earth’s shadow • Eclipse seasons for GEO spacecraft are near equinoxes • not to scale

  5. GOES-14 Eclipse Satellite in Eclipse ≈ 1 hr (not sensing solar x-rays)

  6. Galaxy 15 Upset • Galaxy 15 • Location 133W • in or near an eclipse window • local time ideal for GEO satellite anomalies • Eclipse • 5 April 2010 / 0827Z – 0916Z (2335L – 0024 Local Sun Time ) • Geomagnetic Storming • 0915Z: Minor Geomagnetic Storming started • 1016Z: Geomagnetic Storming increased to Severe levels • Upset • 5 April 2010 / 0948Z (0056 Local Sun Time)

  7. Assessment • At the time of the event • Galaxy 15, stationed at 133W, was near an eclipse window. • When GEO spacecraft are in eclipse, surface charging can reach much larger potentials than when in sunlight. • Strong geomagnetic storming was in progress. • The level of surface charging has a direct correlation to the Kp (intensity of geomagnetic storming) • Higher Kp can result in higher potentials being observed. • Higher electrostatic potential implies stronger discharge. • This is a case of high likelihood of space environmental influence.

  8. 2WS Products

  9. SPACE ENVIRONMENT DISCUSSION Potential Impacts to DoD Operations HF Comm(when YELLOW or RED): temporary degraded or total loss of HF radio communications. UHF SATCOM(when YELLOW or RED): temporary degraded or total loss of UHF radio communications. Satellite Operations/Health (when YELLOW or RED): increased likelihood of spacecraft anomalies; degradation of spacecraft components due to radiation interference to communication satellite circuits. Space Object Tracking/Satellite Drag(when YELLOW or RED): increased likelihood for space object tracking loss; increased drag on low earth orbiting spacecraft. High Altitude Flight(when YELLOW or RED): increase in harmful radiation dosage to personnel in high altitude operations. Radar Interference/False Returns: (when YELLOW or RED): increased interference or false returns to sunward and/or pole ward looking radars. Space Weather Events/Impacts Summary Solar Activity: Observed GREEN. Forecast GREEN 05 – 08 Apr. Flare probabilities: M: 01% X: 01% Charged Particle Environment : Observed YELLOW. Forecast YELLOW 05 Apr. GREEN 06-08 Apr. Geomagnetic: Observed RED. Forecast RED 05 Apr. GREEN 06-08 Apr. HF Comm:Observed RED. Forecast RED 05 Apr. GREEN 06-08 Apr. Satellite Operations/Health: Observed RED. Forecast RED 05 Apr. GREEN 06-08 Apr. Space Object Tracking/Satellite Drag: Observed GREEN. Forecast GREEN 05 – 08 Apr. High Altitude Flight:Observed GREEN. Forecast GREEN 05 – 08 Apr. Radar Interference/False Returns: Observed GREEN. Forecast GREEN 05 – 08 Apr. This slide provides a generalized situation awareness of past and future space environment impacts to war-fighters and weapon systems. The severity of the impacts due to the space environment may be more or less than indicated by the color coded assessment in a particular area. The impact variability is dependent on a variety of factors including, but not limited to, system location, geometry, and operating frequency. Please contact the 2 WS Space Weather Forecaster at DSN 272-8087 or 272-4317 (Commercial 402-232-8087 or 402-232-4317) to arrange mission-specific support or to report conditions experienced by your system that may be related to space weather disturbances.

  10. RECENT SPACE WEATHER EVENTS 05 Apr 10 0915Z ~ Geomagnetic Storming Began 04 Apr 10 No Events 03 Apr 10 No Events 02 Apr 10 No Events 01 Apr 10 1815Z ~ Geomagnetic Storming Ended 1615Z ~ Geomagnetic Storming Began 31 Mar 10 No Events 30 Mar 10 No Events

  11. 2WS Bulletins WOXX54 KGWC 050915 SUBJECT: AFWA EVENT WARNING REPORT ISSUED AT 0915Z 05 APR 2010 PART A. GEOMAGNETIC EVENT IN PROGRESS (INITIAL): THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS INCREASED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE 3-HOUR AP WAS 32 AND THE 24-HOUR AP WAS 15 AT 05/0915Z THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT MINOR STORM LEVELS THROUGH 05/1215Z (BASED ON 3-HOUR AP) WHEN VALUES WILL DECREASE TO ACTIVE LEVELS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS UNTIL THIS EVENT ENDS. PART B. POSSIBLE EFFECTS ARE SATELLITE DRAG ON LOW EARTH ORBIT SATELLITES, SATCOM SCINTILLATION, HF RADIO COMMUNICATION INTERFERENCE OR LAUNCH TRAJECTORY ERRORS. COMMENTS: PART C. REMARKS: ISSUED BY THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY, OFFUTT AFB, NE. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR REQUIRE FURTHER INFORMATION, CALL THE DUTY FORECAST AT DSN 272-8087, COMMERCIAL 402-232-8087. INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED AT https://weather.afwa.af.mil UNDER THE SPACE WEATHER LINK. FORECASTERS: Treacher/Money WOXX54 KGWC 051018 SUBJECT: AFWA EVENT WARNING REPORT ISSUED AT 1018Z 05 APR 2010 PART A. GEOMAGNETIC EVENT IN PROGRESS (UPDATE): THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS AT SEVERE STORM LEVELS. THE 3-HOUR AP WAS 132 AND THE 24-HOUR AP WAS 29 AT 05/1015Z THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT SEVERE STORM LEVELS THROUGH 05/1615Z (BASED ON 3-HOUR AP) WHEN VALUES WILL DECREASE TO ACTIVE LEVELS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS UNTIL THIS EVENT ENDS. PART B. POSSIBLE EFFECTS ARE SATELLITE DRAG ON LOW EARTH ORBIT SATELLITES, SATCOM SCINTILLATION, HF RADIO COMMUNICATION INTERFERENCE OR LAUNCH TRAJECTORY ERRORS. COMMENTS: PART C. REMARKS: ISSUED BY THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY, OFFUTT AFB, NE. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR REQUIRE FURTHER INFORMATION, CALL THE DUTY FORECAST AT DSN 272-8087, COMMERCIAL 402-232-8087. INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED AT https://weather.afwa.af.mil UNDER THE SPACE WEATHER LINK. FORECASTERS: Treacher/Money

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