Climate and Subsistence Hunting The ‘Sustainability of Arctic Communities’ Project

1. Climate and Subsistence HuntingThe ‘Sustainability of Arctic Communities’ Project Arctic Forum, May 2002 ARCUS Annual Meeting

2. An interdisciplinary & collaborative effort 21 Participating scientists 6 Arctic communities • - Aklavik, NWT • Arctic Village, AK • Barrow, AK • - Fort MacPherson, NWT • - Kaktovik, AK • - Old Crow, YT Principal Investigator (Phases 1 & 2) • Jack Kruse1 Community Involvement / Local Knowledge • Gary Kofinas1,3, Steve Braund Synthesis modelers • Craig Nicolson14, Tony Starfield3 Vegetation ecologists • Marilyn Walker5, Terry Chapin2 Howie Epstein5 Caribou biologists • Don Russell9, Brad Griffith10 , Bob White2 Whale biologists • Craig George13, Robert Suydam13, Harry Brower Jr13 , Todd O’Hara13 Oil field – caribou interactions • Steve Murphy, Brad Griffith10 Economists • Matt Berman1, Lee Huskey1, Sharman Haley1 , Stephanie Martin1 13 Universities/Agencies 1. U of Alaska Anchorage (ISER) 2. U of Alaska Fairbanks (IAB) 3. U of Minnesota (Phase 1 only) 4. Dartmouth College 5. U of Colorado, Boulder 6. National Science Foundation 7. US Man and the Biosphere 8. Environment Canada 9. Canadian Wildlife Service 10. US Geological Survey 11. Alaska Dept of Fish and Game 12. Yukon Renewable Resources Council 13. North Slope Borough 14. University of Massachusetts

3. Two streams of science… The science of parts • focused, reductionist • reduce uncertainty • consensus among peers The science of the integration of parts • broad • understand interactions • complex! Experts may not all agree...

4. The Sustainability of Arctic Communities • Began with a core group of researchers who had overlapping interests… • Tundra vegetation ecology (ITEX) • Caribou physiology and ecology (IAB, CWS) • Bowhead whale ecology (NSB) • Economics of Arctic communities (ISER) • There were ‘bricks’ but no ‘wall’

5. two TERRESTRIAL components... Caribou Vegetation

6. ...a MARINE component... Beluga & Bowhead whales Caribou Vegetation

7. …and three HUMAN components. Beluga & Bowhead whales Employ-ment Hunting Demogr-aphics Caribou Vegetation

8. Tourism and Gov’t $$ Tourism + Govt Funding pathways Employ-ment Hunting Demogr-aphics

9. Oil development pathways Offshore oil development Beluga & Bowhead whales Employ-ment Hunting Caribou Onshore oil development

10. Climate pathways Beluga & Bowhead whales Climate Hunting Caribou Vegetation

11. Summary of the system and pathways Offshore oil development Tourism and Gov’t $$ Beluga & Bowhead whales Employ-ment Climate Hunting Demogr-aphics Caribou Vegetation Onshore oil development

12. Linking climate and subsistence hunting2 case studiesa) Spring bowhead hunting (Barrow) b) Annual Caribou hunting round (Old Crow)

13. HuntingBowhead Whales The influence of climate: • Whales are hunted at Barrow in both spring and fall • Spring (April 20 - May31) • hunt from umiaks in open leads; camps on shorefast ice • The number of whales landed varies each spring

14. What factors affect hunting success? • Craig George & Harry Brower Jr spoke to captains • Four main themes emerged Number seen Spring hunt Bowhead harvest (Barrow ) Environmental conditions Food quality Regulation & management

15. Lead condition Ice condition (camp, transport) Spring hunt Bowhead harvest (Barrow ) Environmental conditions

16. Blowing snow Sea smoke Temperature Wind (speed, dir) Rough water Lead width Ice conc. in lead Fog Ocean currents (speed, dir) Lead condition Abrupt sea level change Ice condition (camp, transport) Spring hunt Bowhead harvest (Barrow ) Environmental conditions Multi-year ice Fall freeze-up

17. Other factors, and the Primary Climate-related Pathway Hunting activities Blowing snow Sea smoke Temperature Wind (speed, dir) Strikes Noise Rough water Lead width Ice conc. in lead Fog Migration distrib. and timing Ocean currents (speed, dir) Bering Sea ice Lead condition Number seen Abrupt sea level change Contaminants Ice condition (camp, transport) Spring hunt Bowhead harvest (Barrow ) Environmental conditions Perceived food safety, taste Food quality Multi-year ice Fall freeze-up Quality of muscle, organ tissue Regulation & management Quality of muktuk Primary productivity Need and use Incidental take by industry MSYR threshold Time taken for butchering Calf production Measured abundance Density dep factors Measured rate of increase Mortality factors Real rate of increase Technology Spring Census

18. What factors affect harvest success? • Wind speed

19. Wind direction • We have daily wind data for Barrow airport… • Plot each day’s average wind conditions on a vector plot to show both speed and direction… N Apr 20 Apr 21 E W Apr 22 Apr 23, 1997 ESE, 23km/h S

20. N E W S Spring hunting season in Barrow • April 20 – May 31 • From 1990 to 1997

21. Looking at wind data (cont’d) • On days when one or more whales were harvested, we can show the dots in a different color. N Apr 20 Apr 21 E W Apr 22 Apr 23 2 whales harvested S

22. Look at the wind direction on successful harvest days Note how winds are almost always from the east when whales are taken in the spring. Scientific and quantified representation of what the captains had told Harry B and Craig G.

23. Climate factors drive spring hunting! • Policy Implications • International Whaling Commission • Subsistence quota may be reduced if it is not used • This shows that there may be good reasons why whale harvest is low in some years: not a function of need

24. 1992 1996 Arctic climate (AO) and Barrow wind Wind direction: # days with easterly winds vs monthly AO, 1990-99 Wind speed: days with winds >15km/h

25. Arctic climate (PNA) and local conditions • Next, we tried the PNA index instead of AO. And there’s a strong relationship between the May PNA value and the number of good wind days in May. • So there seems to be a link between PNA and Barrow spring wind conditions. But the two years with the worst wind conditions (and thus the 2 worst whale harvests in 1990-7) don’t fit the general pattern at all.

26. Hunting Caribou An example of modeling the interaction between human and natural systems: • Understanding system components • Mapping a conceptual model • Developing quantitative relationships • Synthesis: simulation model • Exploring scenarios

27. 1. Understanding the systems • Focus groups with elders and hunters • Generative theory building • Sets of propositions 1)Caribou availability to communities 2)Distribution and movements of caribou 3)Environmental factors affecting hunters’ access to caribou 4)Participation in the wage economy and caribou hunting 5)Cash – how does it affect caribou hunting 6)Exchanging caribou between households and communities 7)Moving away from or back to communities

28. example… • “If a local hunter has a full time job, he has little time for hunting” became modified and nuanced… • Those with full time jobs have equipment that allows for fast access to hunting grounds distant from communities. • Those with full-time jobs hunt on weekends in crowded and unsafe conditions. • Those without full time jobs avoiding hunting on weekends

29. 2. Caribou Hunting: Conceptual model Eld • Households • Caribou need • Resources • Sharing (gear/meat) 3Gen Mom Bach C+K • Geographic hunting zones • Effort for a trip in each season • Caribou availability i.e. complex adaptive system (agent-based approach)

30. 2. Conceptual model of hunting (cont’d) Wage economy Climate HH Time & $$ Gear sharing HH meat needs HH hunting ‘resources’ P(hunting)

31. 2. Conceptual model of hunting (cont’d) Wage economy Climate Caribou distribution Access to hunting areas Caribou availability P(hunting)

32. 2. Conceptual model of hunting (cont’d) Wage economy Climate HH Time & $$ Gear sharing Caribou distribution HH meat needs HH hunting ‘resources’ Access to hunting areas Caribou availability P(hunting) Time on the land Actual HH harvest

33. 2. Conceptual model of hunting (cont’d) Wage economy Climate HH Time & $$ Gear sharing Caribou distribution HH meat needs HH hunting ‘resources’ Access to hunting areas Caribou availability P(hunting) Time on the land Meat sharing Actual HH harvest

34. 2. Conceptual model of hunting (cont’d) Wage economy Climate HH Time & $$ Gear sharing Caribou distribution HH meat needs HH hunting ‘resources’ Access to hunting areas Caribou availability P(hunting) Time on the land Meat sharing Collective hunt Actual HH harvest

35. 3. Quantifying the relationships Example: P(hunting) = f [ N, Reshh , Cavail , Caccess ] HQI = g [ Cavail , Caccess ] Logistic analysis (logit equation) of ~150 hh’s data

36. 4. Synthesis: simulation model

37. 5. Exploring scenarios with the model

38. Summary: • In the Arctic, human socio-cultural systems are closely coupled to biophysical systems and to the climate system • These systems interact in complex ways and have emergent properties that would be difficult to predict without an integrated perspective • There are adaptive strategies that help to make communities less vulnerable to climate effects

39. Some lessons we learned… • Interdisciplinary communication is harder than you think • Gaps between system components aren’t always easy to fill in • Disciplinary expertise doesn’t guarantee integrative expertise • It’s a challenge to communicate the results of integrated models But… • This kind of complex systems approach is also a lot of fun!