Advanced modelling tools for integrated assessment of water and agricultural policies
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Advanced modelling tools for integrated assessment of water and agricultural policies. María Blanco Fonseca Agricultural Economics Department Polytechnic University of Madrid. Summary.  Summary. Water and agriculture Integration of agricultural and water policies New modeling challenges

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Advanced modelling tools for integrated assessment ofwater and agricultural policies

María Blanco Fonseca

Agricultural Economics Department

Polytechnic University of Madrid


Summary

 Summary

  • Water and agriculture

  • Integration of agricultural and water policies

  • New modeling challenges

  • Modeling approaches

    • SERCA

    • SEAMLESS

  • Concluding remarks

 Water and

agriculture

 CAP and WFD

 New modeling

challenges

 Modeling

approaches

 SERCA

 SEAMLESS

 Conclusions


Water and agriculture

 Summary

  • Water is a strategic resource and a major constraint for agricultural production

  • Irrigation is a key element of agricultural development (irrigated lands account for a large share of farming production)

  • Growing water scarcity has become a major ecological, economic and social problem

  • New water and agricultural policies aim to contribute to the sustainability of agricultural systems

 Water and

agriculture

 CAP and WFD

 New modeling

challenges

 Modeling

approaches

 SERCA

 SEAMLESS

 Conclusions


Integration of agricultural and water policies

 Summary

  • Trends in EU water policies:

    • WFD establishes the basic principles for a sustainable water policy in the European Union

    • Key role of economic instruments

      • Member States shall take account of the principle of recovery of the costs of water services

      • Member States shall ensure by 2010 that water-pricing policies provide adequate incentives for users to use water resources efficiently

    • New water policies focus on demand management and aim to increase efficiency of water use in agriculture

 Water and

agriculture

 CAP and WFD

 New modeling

challenges

 Modeling

approaches

 SERCA

 SEAMLESS

 Conclusions


Integration of agricultural and water policies

 Summary

  • Trends in EU Agricultural Policies:

    • The 2003 CAP reform represents a significant change in EU farm support

      • "decoupling" will make EU farmers more competitive and market oriented

      • "compliance" will ensure the respect of environmental conditions

    • Increasing the versatile nature of the new CAP

      • policy guidelines at EU level

      • implementation at national/regional level (variety of implementation tools)

 Water and

agriculture

 CAP and WFD

 New modeling

challenges

 Modeling

approaches

 SERCA

 SEAMLESS

 Conclusions


New modeling challenges

 Summary

  • Increasing interest for developing analytical tools at regional/local level

  • Ability to simulate potential changes in cropland allocation and technology

  • Aptitude to assess economic, social and environmental issues

  • Capability to work with the available databases in order to allow for regional comparison and updating

  • Flexibility to simulate the rising variety of policy instruments (water pricing, decoupling, compliance, agri-environmental measures)

 Water and

agriculture

 CAP and WFD

 New modeling

challenges

 Modeling

approaches

 SERCA

 SEAMLESS

 Conclusions


Modeling approaches (SERCA)

 Summary

  • SERCA: one of the recent efforts to develop modeling tools for integrated assessment of water and agricultural policies

  • Optimization approach satisfying the following criteria:

    • Simulate farmers' response to changing policy scenarios

    • Flexible application to a large number of study zones

    • Integrated assessment of environmental, economic and social impacts of different policy options at the regional/local level

    • Capability to work with the limited datasets available

 Water and

agriculture

 CAP and WFD

 New modeling

challenges

 Modeling

approaches

 SERCA

 SEAMLESS

 Conclusions


Modeling approaches (SERCA)

 Summary

  • Impact of water prices on cropland allocation

 Water and

agriculture

Guadiana case study

 CAP and WFD

 New modeling

challenges

 Modeling

approaches

 SERCA

 SEAMLESS

 Conclusions


Modeling approaches (SERCA)

 Summary

  • Water demand in two CAP scenarios

 Water and

agriculture

 CAP and WFD

 New modeling

challenges

 Modeling

approaches

 SERCA

 SEAMLESS

 Conclusions


Modeling approaches (SEAMLESS)

 Summary

  • SEAMLESS: EU Integrated Project

  • Objective: develop and integrated modeling framework to assess alternative agricultural and environmental policy options, allowing

    • Analysis at the full range of scales (farm to global)

    • Analysis of the environmental, economic and social contributions of a multidimensional agriculture towards sustainable rural development

    • Analysis of a broad range of issues

 Water and

agriculture

 CAP and WFD

 New modeling

challenges

 Modeling

approaches

 SERCA

 SEAMLESS

 Conclusions


Modeling approaches (SEAMLESS)

 Summary

  • Specific objectives:

    • To develop a multi-perspective set of economic, social and environmental indicators of the sustainability of farming systems

    • To provide quantitative and qualitative tools and databases for integrated evaluation of agricultural systems at multiple scales

    • To validate and demonstrate the applicability and reliability of SEAMLESS in selected test cases

    • To offer a generic and flexible structure to end users, open for further developments

 Water and

agriculture

 CAP and WFD

 New modeling

challenges

 Modeling

approaches

 SERCA

 SEAMLESS

 Conclusions


Global

Continental &

National

Regional

Farm

Field

Modeling approaches (SEAMLESS)

 Summary

  • Integrated modeling framework

 Water and

agriculture

Global model

 CAP and WFD

Market models

 New modeling

challenges

Regional models

Landscape models

 Modeling

approaches

 SERCA

Farm models

 SEAMLESS

Agricultural production models at field level

 Conclusions


Concluding remarks

 Summary

  • Ex-ante assessment of new policies is vital for enhancing their effectiveness and efficiency

  • Recent institutional and policy changes pose important challenges on modelling

  • Need to develop models able to work at different scales and to consider the different aspects (biophysical, economic, social and institutional) of the farming systems under study.

 Water and

agriculture

 CAP and WFD

 New modeling

challenges

 Modeling

approaches

 SERCA

 SEAMLESS

 Conclusions


Thank you very much for your attention


Modeling approaches (SERCA)

 Summary

  • Impact of water price policies in cropland allocation

 Water and

agriculture

Guadiana case study

 CAP and WFD

 New modeling

challenges

 Modeling

approaches

 SERCA

 SEAMLESS

 Conclusions


Modeling approaches (SERCA)

 Summary

  • Impact of water price policies in cropland allocation

 Water and

agriculture

Guadalquivir case study

 CAP and WFD

 New modeling

challenges

 Modeling

approaches

 SERCA

 SEAMLESS

 Conclusions


Modeling approaches (SERCA)

 Summary

  • Irrigation technology

 Water and

agriculture

 CAP and WFD

 New modeling

challenges

 Modeling

approaches

 SERCA

 SEAMLESS

 Conclusions


Modeling approaches (SERCA)

 Summary

  • Water demand

 Water and

agriculture

 CAP and WFD

 New modeling

challenges

 Modeling

approaches

 SERCA

 SEAMLESS

 Conclusions


Modeling approaches (SERCA)

 Summary

  • The model allows us as well to simulate agricultural policy changes.

  • The main policy options simulated are:

    • Baseline Scenario : 1999 CAP

    • Partial Decoupling: Single Payment Scheme (75% payments decoupled from production)

    • Full Decoupling: Single Payment Scheme (100% payments decoupled from production)

 Water and

agriculture

 CAP and WFD

 New modeling

challenges

 Modeling

approaches

 SERCA

 SEAMLESS

 Conclusions


Modeling approaches (SERCA)

 Summary

  • Water demand (Guadiana)

 Water and

agriculture

 CAP and WFD

 New modeling

challenges

 Modeling

approaches

 SERCA

 SEAMLESS

 Conclusions


Modeling approaches (SERCA)

 Summary

  • Farm income (Guadiana)

 Water and

agriculture

 CAP and WFD

 New modeling

challenges

 Modeling

approaches

 SERCA

 SEAMLESS

 Conclusions


Modeling approaches (SEAMLESS)

 Summary

  • Indicators for each analysis level

 Water and

agriculture

 CAP and WFD

 New modeling

challenges

 Modeling

approaches

 SERCA

 SEAMLESS

 Conclusions


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