Christian Ydesen and Yihuan Zou Friday, 24 March, 2017 NERA Conference

1. The Role of Numbers in Education Governance – the case of OECD’s educational recommendations and programmes Christian Ydesen and Yihuan Zou Friday, 24 March, 2017 NERA Conference

2. Outline of the presentation • Outset: the OECD and numbers • Questions of impact • The basic impact model • A methodological model • OECD and education • OECD and education in Denmark • OECD and education in China • Concluding remarks

3. Outset • The OECD is one of the most powerful International Organisations in the shaping of a global education space (country reviews, international assessment programmes and reports) “a curious creature…an amalgam of a rich man's club, a management consulting firm for governments, and a legislative body” (Salzman and Terracino 2006: 323) ”A global layer of state” (Shaw 2000: 213) • The role of quantification has played a crucial part in shaping and thus governing the field of education–a framework of indicators • Education metrics are reshaping the very ways IOs compete and survive in an increasingly quantified world

4. A historical view on quantification • Douglas Aircraft Corp. - Ford foundation – RAND ”Systems Analysis and Education” “We went out to the RAND Corporation and got Joe [Joseph E.] Kershaw, who was then head of their economics department and getting very tired of working on weapons systems, to take a colleague and go sit in a local school system for a couple of months and see if “systems analysis” could be applied to a public school system” Philip Hall Coombs, head of the Ford Foundation’s Fund for the Advancement of Education • 1957 Sputnik shock  Committee for Scientific and Technical Personnel, 1958 “May I say that, in this context, the fight for education is too important to be left solely to the educators” US government adviser, 1961

5. - Questions of Impact - • How are ideas and initiatives transmitted in practice from one venue to another? • Which distribution channels are used? • How are ideas and initiatives made acceptable to different populations? • What are the effects of moving ideas and initiatives? • We argue that numbers play a pivotal role in terms of providing answers to these question. • Hansen and Porter suggest that numbers are characterized by qualities that make their influence much more pervasive than words: order, mobility, stability, combinability, and precision

6. The Basic Impact Model : Idea-Initiative-Intervention-ImpactSource: Leeuw, Frans & Vaessen, Jos (2009), Impact Evaluations and Development. NONIE Guidance on Impact Evaluation, Washington DC: NONIE—The Network of Networks on Impact Evaluation.Späth, Brigitte (2004), Current State of the Art in Impact Assessment, Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation.

7. A methodological model Reciprocity, crossings, transformations, conflicting narratives, uneven power structures and unintended impact Source: Christensen, I.L. & Ydesen C.: “Routes of Knowledge: Toward a methodological framework for tracing the historical impact of international organizations” European Education, 47, 3, 2015, pp. 274-288.

8. - OECD and education - • The role of education is to provide human capital to deal with social challenges and improve the economies of nation-states. • Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI), 1968. • 1970s: focus on the labour market, equal access and life-long learning - country reports. • 1980s: focus on youth unemployment; “A Nation at Risk: Imperatives for Educational Reform” (1983)  establishment of the International Indicators of Educational Systems (INES) project. • 1990s: international comparisons take centre stage; Education at a glance (1992) and individual country reports • 2000s: Programme for International Student Assessment

9. - OECD and Education in Denmark - Programme for Educational Investment and Planning, 1962  call for statistical data from member countries  an economic and statistical counsellor was employed in the Danish Ministry of education in 1963: • Individual data on students (“educational behaviour”) • Teacher/pupil ratios • Needs for new schools (small  larger schools) • SEN children • School buildings • Data on university students (preceding education, subjects and exam results) • Statistics on teachers • Commercial and vocational education students • Periodical analysis of the accounts of a number of public and private schools • Factors effecting student’s choice of education programmes • Progress report on the planning of education investments, 1965 (attention of the European Ministers of Education)  Give advise to central and local authorities concerning education planning

10. - OECD and Education in China - • OECD enjoys a high level of credibility and authority in China • The influence of OECD on Chinese education is mainly through four channels: • PISA test (Shanghai took part in in 2009. Beijing, Jiangsu and Guangdong joined in 2015) • Reports containing data, concepts, frameworks and initiatives deemed relevant to China • Conferences with Chinese partners (Ministry of Education, etc.) • Country reports on Chinese education • Sense of urgency (burning platform)

11. Concluding remarks • Channels: programmes, reports • Mechanisms: comparisons (so ein Ding…), soft governance and pragmatism • The purpose and authority of the organisation are key; numbers are pivotal in that respect • Scope of impact: sense of urgency  education reforms