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Met Office Verification -status

Met Office Verification -status. Clive Wilson, Presented by Mike Bush at EWGLAM Meeting October 8-11, 2007. Outline. Main systems – area and station Use same packages for operations and R&D Mesoscale Limited area UKindex Trials Precipitation validation – radar, gauges High resolution

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Met Office Verification -status

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  1. Met Office Verification -status Clive Wilson, Presented by Mike Bush at EWGLAM Meeting October 8-11, 2007

  2. Outline • Main systems – area and station • Use same packages for operations and R&D • Mesoscale Limited area • UKindex • Trials • Precipitation validation – radar, gauges • High resolution • Fractions skill • Intensity scale

  3. Main systems • 2 systems • Ver – only stores area averaged statistics/scores • Obs – surface, upper air, satellite winds, aircraft, radar precipitation • Analyses • Continuous and categorical statistics, skill scores • SBV- station based relational database (Oracle) • Enables greater flexibility • Conditional verification • Used for many operational and research forecasts • Model • Site specific • Forecasters • Continuous and categorical statistics, skill scores

  4. NAE and UK4 verification • Operational: • UK index – surface parameters • Verification against radar composites (Nimrod) • “fuzzy” – Fractional skill score • Research • Intensity-scale

  5. UK Index • Screen level Temperature, 10m wind • MSE skill • 6h precipitation, visibility, cloud cover, cloud base • Equitable threat score, 3 thresholds • All WMO 03 , UK stations • Equal weights to T+6 to +48 by 6h • Equal weights to each parameter • 36 month contingency tables, running means • I=100*S/So, So=value at March 2000

  6. UK index Thresholds and weights

  7. Trials verification –use same verification as operational

  8. Validation monthly precipitation against gauge analysis gauges difference UK4

  9. SBV error maps

  10. Intensity-scale 4km model precipitation Highlights intensity-scales where worse than random forecast

  11. Verification (Fractional Skill Score) July 2007

  12. Verification (Fractional Skill Score) August 2007

  13. Questions & Answers

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