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Met Office Verification -status. Clive Wilson, Presented by Mike Bush at EWGLAM Meeting October 8-11, 2007. Outline. Main systems – area and station Use same packages for operations and R&D Mesoscale Limited area UKindex Trials Precipitation validation – radar, gauges High resolution

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Met Office Verification -status

Clive Wilson, Presented by Mike Bush at EWGLAM Meeting October 8-11, 2007


Outline
Outline

  • Main systems – area and station

    • Use same packages for operations and R&D

  • Mesoscale Limited area

    • UKindex

    • Trials

    • Precipitation validation – radar, gauges

    • High resolution

      • Fractions skill

      • Intensity scale


Main systems
Main systems

  • 2 systems

    • Ver – only stores area averaged statistics/scores

      • Obs – surface, upper air, satellite winds, aircraft, radar precipitation

      • Analyses

      • Continuous and categorical statistics, skill scores

    • SBV- station based relational database (Oracle)

      • Enables greater flexibility

      • Conditional verification

      • Used for many operational and research forecasts

        • Model

        • Site specific

        • Forecasters

      • Continuous and categorical statistics, skill scores


Nae and uk4 verification
NAE and UK4 verification

  • Operational:

    • UK index – surface parameters

    • Verification against radar composites (Nimrod)

    • “fuzzy” – Fractional skill score

  • Research

    • Intensity-scale


Uk index
UK Index

  • Screen level Temperature, 10m wind

    • MSE skill

  • 6h precipitation, visibility, cloud cover, cloud base

    • Equitable threat score, 3 thresholds

  • All WMO 03 , UK stations

  • Equal weights to T+6 to +48 by 6h

  • Equal weights to each parameter

  • 36 month contingency tables, running means

  • I=100*S/So, So=value at March 2000






Intensity scale 4km model precipitation
Intensity-scale 4km model precipitation

Highlights intensity-scales where worse than random forecast





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