Met Office Verification -status
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Met Office Verification -status. Clive Wilson, Presented by Mike Bush at EWGLAM Meeting October 8-11, 2007. Outline. Main systems – area and station Use same packages for operations and R&D Mesoscale Limited area UKindex Trials Precipitation validation – radar, gauges High resolution

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Met Office Verification -status

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Met office verification status

Met Office Verification -status

Clive Wilson, Presented by Mike Bush at EWGLAM Meeting October 8-11, 2007


Outline

Outline

  • Main systems – area and station

    • Use same packages for operations and R&D

  • Mesoscale Limited area

    • UKindex

    • Trials

    • Precipitation validation – radar, gauges

    • High resolution

      • Fractions skill

      • Intensity scale


Main systems

Main systems

  • 2 systems

    • Ver – only stores area averaged statistics/scores

      • Obs – surface, upper air, satellite winds, aircraft, radar precipitation

      • Analyses

      • Continuous and categorical statistics, skill scores

    • SBV- station based relational database (Oracle)

      • Enables greater flexibility

      • Conditional verification

      • Used for many operational and research forecasts

        • Model

        • Site specific

        • Forecasters

      • Continuous and categorical statistics, skill scores


Nae and uk4 verification

NAE and UK4 verification

  • Operational:

    • UK index – surface parameters

    • Verification against radar composites (Nimrod)

    • “fuzzy” – Fractional skill score

  • Research

    • Intensity-scale


Uk index

UK Index

  • Screen level Temperature, 10m wind

    • MSE skill

  • 6h precipitation, visibility, cloud cover, cloud base

    • Equitable threat score, 3 thresholds

  • All WMO 03 , UK stations

  • Equal weights to T+6 to +48 by 6h

  • Equal weights to each parameter

  • 36 month contingency tables, running means

  • I=100*S/So, So=value at March 2000


Uk index thresholds and weights

UK index Thresholds and weights


Trials verification use same verification as operational

Trials verification –use same verification as operational


Validation monthly precipitation against gauge analysis

Validation monthly precipitation against gauge analysis

gauges

difference

UK4


Sbv error maps

SBV error maps


Intensity scale 4km model precipitation

Intensity-scale 4km model precipitation

Highlights intensity-scales where worse than random forecast


Verification fractional skill score

Verification (Fractional Skill Score)

July 2007


Verification fractional skill score1

Verification (Fractional Skill Score)

August 2007


Met office verification status

Questions & Answers


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