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Highlight: 2014 recent news headlines (F.A.Z.)

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Highlight: 2014 recent news headlines (F.A.Z.)

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  1. Current macroeconomic situation in GermanyMartin WenkeNiederrhein University of Applied SciencesFaculty of Business Administration and EconomicsMönchengladbach, GermanyNiederrhein Institute for Regional and Structural Research (NIERS)Institute of Business Ethics and Sustainability (EthNa)Institute for Applied Sciences (IAW) Folie 1

  2. Highlight:2014recent news headlines (F.A.Z.) • September: Business sentiment slumps again – and more than expected • July: Monthly exports first time above 100 bill € threshold • August: High order plus of industry dampens recession fears • September: Higher purchasing power of households: wages grew faster than prices • Summer: Euro zone inflation close to zero • Summer: ECB under pressure • Summer: Germany’s strong industry • July: Unemployment growing • Traffic jam blues | 03.09.2009 | BBA404 Macroeconomics | Prof. Dr. Martin Wenke | Economics Ecology and Ethics | Folie 2

  3. Part III Business Cycles and Keynesian Economics | 03.09.2009 | BBA404 Macroeconomics | Prof. Dr. Martin Wenke | Economics Ecology and Ethics | Folie 3

  4. Macroeconomic Theory and Time Horizon Output Long term production capacity/potentialneoclassical theory Short term, actual measured production; Keynesian theory Time | 03.09.2009 | BBA404 Macroeconomics | Prof. Dr. Martin Wenke | Economics Ecology and Ethics | Folie 4

  5. Economic fluctuations – Business CyclePhases of a Cycle % change ofreal GDP upper turning point; peak, boom amplitude expansion contraction cycle lower turning point, trough, recession | 03.09.2009 | BBA404 Macroeconomics | Prof. Dr. Martin Wenke | Economics Ecology and Ethics | Folie 5

  6. Business Cycle – Theoretical basics of Keynesian model Medium/long term view (Neoclassical Macroeconomics): Aggregate Supply (max) = Production Capacity = f(Labour, Capital, Land) Short term view (Keynesian Macroeconomics) Aggregate Supply (current) = f(Aggregate Demand) Aggregate Demand (GDP) = Private Consumption (PC) + Governmental Expenditures (GE) + Capital Formation (real Inv.) (CF) + Export (EX) [- Import (IM)] | 03.09.2009 | BBA404 Macroeconomics | Prof. Dr. Martin Wenke | Economics Ecology and Ethics | Folie 6

  7. Business Cycle – Theoretical basics of Keynesian model – model of the entire economy (+) (-) (-) (+) PC = f(PDY, i, UR, CCI) (+/-) (-) (+) (-) (-) GE = f(%GDPc/%GDPa, i, TXR, AGD, GDL) = GDP (+) (-) (+) CF = f(GDPc/GDPp, i, BSI) (+) (-) (-) (+) EX = f(%WT, CER, TOT, IICP) -IM = f(PC, CF, EX) | 03.09.2009 | BBA404 Macroeconomics | Prof. Dr. Martin Wenke | Economics Ecology and Ethics | Folie 7

  8. Highlight:Managerssentiment and theirconfidence in Germanys economy - results of Ifo poll – 2005 = 100 | 03.09.2009 | BBA404 Macroeconomics | Prof. Dr. Martin Wenke | Economics Ecology and Ethics | Folie 8

  9. Highlights: Current economic situation in Germany The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ap. 7,000 monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactorily” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference of the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference of the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. | 03.09.2009 | BBA404 Macroeconomics | Prof. Dr. Martin Wenke | Economics Ecology and Ethics | Folie 9

  10. Business Cycle – Application Autumn 2014: Results of Joint Economic Forecast Main economic indicators | 03.09.2009 | BBA404 Macroeconomics | Prof. Dr. Martin Wenke | Economics Ecology and Ethics | Folie 10

  11. Business Cycle – Application Autumn 2014: Results of Joint Economic ForecastFinal Demand Components, constant 2010 prices, in %(Lundberg growth contribution) | 03.09.2009 | BBA404 Macroeconomics | Prof. Dr. Martin Wenke | Economics Ecology and Ethics | Folie 11

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