Evolution – Part Deux

1. Evolution – Part Deux André V. Mendes Chief Technology Integration Officer PBS

2. Disclaimer • This presentation reflects my opinions! • Things happen whether we like it or not! • Caveat emptor!

3. In the words of Arthur C. Clarke: “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic..” • In an ever increasing spiral since the beginning of recorded history, the combination of science and technology has become the most significant engine of societal evolution… • Distinct patterns of growth, behavior, reaction, and counter reaction continue to emerge that have been repeated throughout the ages, even in the lowest of life forms.

4. The common cold Initial exposure to pathogenic vector Marshalling of host resources Furious viral DNA replication Immune systemdetection Antibody production Immune system reaction Infection is defeated (most times) Mutation occurs Cycle begins anew The common PC Virus Initial exposure to viral code (e-mail?) Marshalling of host resources Furious offending code replication Detected by Sys Admin Upgrade Virus software Virus clean-up Virus is eradicated (most times) Viral code is modified Cycle begins anew Take for example..

5. Similarities abound in infection.. • More dangerous viruses are slow • HIV, Herpes Vs. Ebola, etc.. • Spreading is facilitated by: • Exchange of “information” • Accessibility (contact, connectivity) • Global access ( P+T+A, Internet) • Lack of education, basic hygiene

6. And in avoidance and recovery.. • Immune system deals with viruses by: • Scanning, signatures, libraries, self updating • Self-contained, 10,000 trillion signatures • Some outside help (vaccines) • Auto-immune diseases can be devastating • Lupus, Multiple Sclerosis • Computer systems deal with viruses by: • Scanning, signatures, libraries, updates • Relying on outside sources 100,000’s signatures • Intelligent code being incorporated into systems • Sometimes cure worse than disease • System crash, data loss, etc..

7. Bacterial Infections Initial colonization Resource availability Rapid growth Emergence of environmental constraints Rapid pop. decline Organism death Cannibalism Survival of the fittest Maturity (mutation) Subsequent infection Technology Startup Initial technology idea VC investment Rapid growth Emergence of environment constraints Rapid market weeding Bankruptcy M & A’s, auctions Survival of the fittest Maturity (profit) Next technology idea Another example..

8. Why such similarities? • All evolutionary processes share similar characteristics: • Mutations (random, environmentally driven or purposeful) • Selection (Self inflicted or external) • Survival of the fittest • Positive results from previous iteration are incorporated in the next generation • Exponential growth • Growth driven resource exhaustion leads to paradigm shifts

9. Evolutionary Curve Hysteria Reality Enthusiasm Performance Disillusionment Initial idea Maturation Adaptation

10. Why does it happen with technology?

11. We anoint and believe “experts”! • "Unlike with other famous bubbles ... the Internet bubble is riding on rock-solid fundamentals, perhaps stronger than any the market has seen before. Underlying the crazy price increases are the foundations of what could become the early 21st century's leading growth companies.... Just because the Internet stock phenomenon looks like a bubble, it isn't a given that the bubble will burst.“ • Henry Blodget, Leading Internet Analyst, Oppenheimer Funds 3/5/2000 • March 10th, 2000 Nasdaq at 5,048

12. We Overestimate the Short Term • We tend to overestimate the impact of new technologies over a 2 year time span • Web retail expectations • Broadband penetration • ASP model • WAP/Wireless adoption • Genomic revolution • Because… • “Dopeler effect” • Sellers need to sell! • Buyers need to buy! • Trade magazines and (conference producers!) need the revenue!

13. We Underestimate Long Term • We tend to substantially underestimate the impact of technological changes over the long haul (10+ years) • Personal computer • Internet • Biotechnology • Nanotechnology • Pervasive computing • Linux or open source movement • Because… • We evolved from yeast (not that smart)

14. We forget: If it can happen… It will! • Is it physically possible ? • Does it fulfill a basic human need/want? • Is there money to be made from it? • It will happen…. faster & faster “It will take over 100 years before we decode the entire human genome” Bottstein, MIT 1975 “It will take us another 3 or 4 decades before we finish the whole thing” Ridley, CIT & MIT 1992 “Done” J. CraigVenter, Celera Genomics & Francis Collins, Human Genome Project June 2000

15. The great accelerating continuum… • Biological systems • Primitive cells evolved in billions of years • Emergence of DNA – digital recording of evolution • Higher level organisms arose in tens of millions • Humanoids over millions of years • Homo Sapiens Sapiens over hundreds of thousands • Technological systems • Sharp edges, fire, wheel – tens of thousands • By 1000 AD big changes took centuries • 19th Century more change that previous 9 centuries • First 20 of the 20th more change than in the whole 19th • WWW did not exist pre 1992!

16. The logical corollary is that… Technological evolution is an outgrowth and therefore a continuation of biological evolution

17. Now then… What’s next? • We are reaching a critical stage in a variety of scientific and technological disciplines • As our knowledge in each individual arena deepens, we are coming to the realization that they are deeply intertwined at the most elemental levels: • Physical Sciences • Life Sciences • Computer Sciences • Anthropology • Societal Studies • Economics • We increasingly leverage and cross pollinate across disciplines in order to further accelerate the process

18. The Confluence of Disciplines

19. IT is at the crux of this confluence • “All science is computer science” • Physics modeling, mathematical simulations, genetic mapping, protein folding, therapeutic toxicology • From in vivo to in vitro to in silico • All business is IT driven • From ERP to CRM, from OLTP to DSS, from the most complex, redundant business continuity scenarios to the simplest e-mail servers

20. The other confluence.. • Computer systems will continue to evolve into complex, organism and societal like, systems • Redundant physiological pathways • Self healing operating systems (DNA) • Real time complex pattern recognition • Voice, images, faces, usage patterns • Immune system like responses • Security, fraud detection, self education • Displaying behaviors like: • Inheritance and evolution, • Functional polymorphism • Real time reactions to maintain homeostasis or increase functionality • And eventually….procreate!

21. How soon? • 2005 Blue Gene (1 billion megaflops) • 1/20th capacity of human brain • 100B neurons X 1000 connections X 200 calcs/sec • 2010 - Supercomputer = Human brain • 2020 - $1000 PC = Human brain • 2050 - $1000 = Processing power of the entire population Ray Kurzweil – “The law of accelerating rewards”

22. As terrifying as that can be.. • Was Bill Joy right ? • 30 – 50% chance of extinction • Kurzweil’s prediction ($1,000 by 2020) • Probably not! • “The paradox of the visionary” • Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor, 2001 “The more accurate a vision is and the more it destabilizes the present, the less likely it is to come true”

23. Meanwhile… • Mankind will continue to achieve mastery and control of its own evolutionary mechanisms • Through: • Genetic optimization • Smart drugs (cortical speed, memory enhancement) • Nanotechnology • “Wet” interfaces • Mankind will assimilate functionality that we associate with sophisticated computer systems • Functionality add-ons • Processing, storage, knowledge • Backup and restore

24. Some of it happening today.. • Through external attachments • PDA’s, Cell phones • Cochlear implants • Inner ear electronic implants • Electrical connections to nervous system • Temporary silicon retinal implants • Mouse controlled by brain implanted electrodes. • Intelligent prosthetics. • Artificial vision for the blind. • Will we live to see it?

25. Artificial vision

26. Artificial vision

27. How about life extension? • Dr. Francis Collins (HGP): • 2020 gene base designer drugs • 2030 all ageing genes catalogued • Routine personal genomic sequence • Taking charge of human evolution • Consider this: • Today 135 days every year • In 10 years we could double that • Then what?

28. Will it happen ? • Is it physically possible ? • Does it fulfill a basic human need/want? • Is there money to be made from it? • It will happen…. faster & faster • “The human race will rapidly evolve in the near future. It may not be in accord with democratic and egalitarian principles, but then again Darwinian evolution has never been politically correct”Stephen Hawking Ph.D.

29. In summary: • Faster and faster, scientific advances enabled by rapid technological evolution will continue to create an environment propitious to massive societal change where many basic tenets of our culture will be tested, questioned, modified and possibly eliminated…

30. Great, but…. • Next year I will be in an office dealing with: • Buggy new software • Legacy applications • Reduced operational budgets • Vanished capital budgets • Higher than ever expectations… because of exactly the kind of stuff that you talked about and that my (CEO, CFO, COO, CIO, pick one) read in the latest in-flight magazine!!!!!!

31. More than ever understand that… • Effective IT executives will be, first and foremost, business people with a deep understanding across industries (not just their companies!) • Continuing, relentless, broad, education is no longer a luxury, but of the utmost importance for long term career progress and relevance, not just in IT but throughout the entire organization • The caliber and skill mix of the people you hire, will dictate your personal success as well as your company’s • Eschew the dogmatic and the narrow • Hire, cultivate and reward intellectual curiosity • Make them business people

32. Above all, remember… “Nothing stays the same, and, if you don’t wont to grow, you will soon be passed by those who do! If we don’t keep the future alive with realistic planning, then the alternative looks awfully grim” Herodotus, 424BC

33. Questions ?