12 International Politics: Apocalypse Now and Then

1. 12International Politics: Apocalypse Now and Then

2. Back to Anarchy • Globally, there has never been a formal, hierarchical political structure • What do we call a lack of government? • Anarchy is the underlying dynamic of international politics • The theoretical construct of realism provides the best explanation of how international politics operates in an anarchical environment

3. Realism and War • All realist theories and perspectives are based on three main assumptions: • It’s all about National Interest • In an anarchical environment • Power is the fundamental resource

4. All Quiet on the Western Front? • Following the horrors of World War I, scholarly research was focused on the quest to find a peaceful world • This perspective is referred to as idealism • It is based on two main assumptions: • First, conflict of any sort is bad • Second, no rational leader would choose to endure the massive destruction caused by war

5. Causes of War • A big problem with idealism and the quest for peace was that it didn’t work • In reality, the choice to go to war is pretty much always consciously and rationally made by at least one of the participants • The dynamics that cause war are far more intricate and complex than the event that sparked the conflagration

6. Values of Nations: Security and Peace • Most nations say they believe in security in peace • Yet 30-40 wars at any one time • 87.5 million killed in 20th c. • Are all wars fought in self-defense?

7. Potential Sources of Future Conflict • Resentment over the “McWorld” capitalist culture (Barber) • or a “clash of civilizations” in which religion is a potent political force (Huntington) • or a competition for resources such as oil or water • or blowback from U.S. imperialism and militarism (Chalmers Johnson) • or a combination of them all

8. Haidt (WSJ article) • How is it that reasonable and intelligent people come to opposite conclusions on social issues? • Political Attitudes are an extension of Moral Reasoning which are basically primitive and instinctual • They’ve evolved to allow humans to cooperate and dominate the planet

9. Emphasis on Different Values • Liberals stress “evolved” values like caring and fairness • Conservatives value these also but stress more “tribal” values like loyalty, authority, and sanctity • Are all of these needed? • Does this call into question our Classical Liberal assumptions? • How evolved are we?

10. Post v. Pre Reformation • What happens when more “tribal” religions (i.e. Islam) and their expanding demographic curves come into conflict with post-reformation/atheistic societies in the West? • Samuel Huntington focuses on the different values of different civilizations leading to a “clash of civilizations”

11. Braunwarth’s Rule • Braunwarth’s rule: Laws are codifications of what is acceptable to the average person; • Half will think you are going too far, half will think you are not going far enough • From an evolutionary perspective, are we just heavily armed apes? • A vanguard is needed to show the way but we can’t ignore more fundamental values • Ultimately you create your own reality

12. International Power Distribution Patterns • Anarchy need not lead to war • There can be a Balance of Power between two or more states

13. The Shadow of the Hegemon • Often there is a dominant hegemon that sets up trade and other rules that benefit the hegemon • Smaller countries must voluntarily follow along if they want to participate in international trade • The costs to the hegemon of maintaining the system eventually outweigh the benefits • Fading hegemonic powers are eventually taken over by a challenger

14. Challenging the Realist Paradigm • Realism has a difficult time explaining why cooperative international behavior is more common than war • Also, it ignores the role of economics • There are a number of other competing theories of international relations • Liberalism is less of a theory than a political ideal encompassing democracy, capitalism, human rights, and civil liberties

15. Challenging the Realist Paradigm • Constructivism is based on the idea that human beings construct the reality around them through language and communication • The conceptual framework used to describe something enables certain actions and prevents others • This is a new and interesting theory whose value will be determined with more research

16. The Not So Black Box • Foreign Policy Analysis questions that realist presumption of the state unitary rational actor • Rather, Foreign Policy Analysis is all about the decision making that goes on within states in response to inputs from the anarchic international system • The problem is that since no two states are alike, the analysis can be a complicated mess

17. Stoessinger’s Model • No nation that began a war in the 20th century emerged a winner • Emphasis on the role of leaders • Biggest precipitating factor is misperception

18. Misperceptions • Expectations of brief, decisive conflict • Distorted views of adversary’s character • Belief that you are about to be attacked increases likelihood of war • Misperception of adversary’s power

19. Iraq as an example • Was it a quick, decisive conflict? • What was Bush’s view of Hussein? • Was there a belief that Iraq was going to attack the U.S.? • What was Bush’s perception of Hussein’s power?

20. Why Kant Democracies Fight? • Immanuel Kant argued that since leaders were accountable to the people, they would be much less likely to be able to justify the cost of going to war • While democracies do seem to go to war, they don’t seem to fight one another • Unfortunately, there is little scholarly consensus on the cause of this democratic peace

21. Values of Nations: Liberty, Human Rights, and Democracy • Fundamental tradeoff between demands for safety and belief in basic individual rights and freedoms • Huntington predicted the development of democracies would ebb and flow with an overall increase • Democratization Impediments? • Culture • Poverty • Kleptocracy - no democratic institutions “frail democracies”

22. Values of Nations: Justice, Equality, and Liberty • It’s the same tradeoff between order and freedom • Developed countries understand justice in terms of liberty • Developing countries understand justice in terms of equality • Some look at justice in terms of income distribution • U.S. is more skewed than other democracies • But is more skewed in the developing world, often as a result of consciously designed policies

23. “It’s the Economy, Stupid” – Karl Marx • Another alternative to the realist paradigm is world systems theory • Each country is made up of a small capitalist elite core and a large working-class periphery • Further, countries can be divided between a small core of wealthy, elite, capitalist countries and a much larger periphery of poor, less-developed countries

24. “It’s the Economy, Stupid” – Karl Marx • The result is a world economic system that replicates the capitalist exploitive relationship on a global scale • Wealth flows from the peripheries to the cores, both within and between countries

25. “It’s the Economy, Stupid” – Karl Marx • The core of the periphery keep the system going because they receive key resources from the core of the core • The periphery of the core countries keep the system going because they get the benefit of cheap goods as a result of the exploitation of periphery countries

26. “It’s the Economy, Stupid” – Karl Marx • Loans, grants, aid, and trade agreements all benefit the developed countries • They build economic infrastructures that facilitate economic exploitation of periphery countries by core countries • And tie developing countries to debts that extract capital at alarming rates

27. “It’s the Economy, Stupid” – Karl Marx • Not everything about globalization is bad and evil • Literacy rates and access to educational opportunities are higher than they have ever been • As are access to health care and vaccinations • With some exceptions, ditto for human rights and basic rights for women

28. “It’s the Economy, Stupid” – Karl Marx • Further, it would be impossible to stop globalization • It is a phenomena created by advancing technology, increasing worldwide education, and the aggregate economic choices of billions of people

29. Dude, Think about the Fish • As capitalist pressures become every more universal, • economic pressures drive overexploitation globally • The global tragedy of the commons is an issue that extends across nations and involves sub-national political units, multinational entities, and transnational organizations

30. Roaring Mice and Vacation Hot Spots • It’s not so much which theoretical approach is correct, but how differentideas can help us understand what is going on • Why does Barbados exist? • It has little power in an anarchic world • Is it economic? Moral? Something else? • There is no one simple theory for global interaction • International relations are complex and multifaceted

31. Alternative Approaches to a More Peaceful World • A new balance of power • The United Nations’ third-party activities • Collective security • Global economic integration • Nonviolent civilian defense • We’ll examine in turn

32. A New Balance of Power • Will the U.S. remain the sole hegemon or will there be a new multi-polar order? • Perhaps the United States and other regional units such as the European Union, Japan and other Southeast Asian countries, China, etc.

33. The United Nations’ Third-Party Activities • More effective use of good offices, conciliation, investigation, mediation, arbitration, observation, truce supervision, and most important, peacekeeping? • Is this likely? Is the U.S. likely to agree?

34. Collective Security • Strengthening the U.N. Collective Security provisions under Chapter VII of the charter, whereby states to respond to an aggressor with overwhelming force • (Wilson, Bush Sr.)

35. Global Economic Integration • By making states increasingly interdependent on each other, the costs of going to war also increase. Therefore the probability of war decreases. • Is this likely?

36. Nonviolent Civilian Defense • According to Gene Sharp, nonviolence must be seriously considered as a means of gaining a more peaceful world. • Is it practical idea? Realistic?

37. Questions: • If these alternatives to dealing with war are inadequate, unrealistic, or undesirable, can you think of others? • Or are we doomed to the seemingly never-ending cycle of violence that has plagued our history?