Assessment of Environmental Benefits (AEB) Modeling System
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Assessment of Environmental Benefits (AEB) Modeling System A coupled energy-air quality modeling system for describing air quality impact of energy efficiency. Fifth Annual CMAS Conference Chapel Hill, NC October 16-18, 2006 Session 5: Regulatory Modeling Studies.

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Fifth Annual CMAS Conference

Chapel Hill, NC

October 16-18, 2006

Session 5: Regulatory Modeling Studies

Principal Investigator Bob Imhoff

[email protected]


Assessment of environmental benefits modeling system aeb objective
Assessment of Environmental Benefits Modeling System (AEB) Objective

  • Get SIP Credit for Air Quality Benefits of Energy Efficiency Technologies:

  • How do we make the case?

    • Link together accepted models using new S/W tools and new methods

      • ORCED = Oak Ridge Competitive Electricity Dispatch model (Stan Hadley, ORNL)

      • SMOKE

      • CMAQ

  • Follow USEPA Guidance of August 5, 2004 to ensure emission reductions will be: Quantifiable, Surplus, Enforceable, Permanent



Source Domain for CMAQ Sensitivity Analyses Objective

Southern + TVA + VACAR subregions; that portion of SERC that most closely resembles VISTAS


Cmaq modeling scenarios
CMAQ modeling scenarios Objective

Future base case: VISTAS OTW 2018 F4

Modeling time period: 1 year

Met data: 2002 (VISTAS)

Grid resolution: 36 km



Results so 2 emission reductions nc scenarios
Results – SO Objective2 Emission Reductions NC Scenarios


Results – SO Objective2 Emission Reductions TN Scenarios


Results – SO Objective2 Emission Reductions GA Scenarios


Results comparison of so 2 reductions
Results – Comparison of SO Objective2 Reductions


“Power-gen Pictogram” originated by Stan Hadley of ORNL, Objective

developer of the ORCED power dispatch model





Results so2 reductions joint action
Results – SO2 Reductions, joint action Objective

Coordinated EE implementation improves NC-only results by 35% from 43k tons to 58k tons



Results 2018 reductions at current costs
Results – 2018 Reductions at Current Costs Objective

Market rates for Allowances from Evolution Markets, Inc. at

http://www.evomarkets.com/emissions/index.php?xp1=so2 and

http://www.evomarkets.com/emissions/index.php?xp1=sipnox


Results 2018 reductions at projected cost
Results – 2018 Reductions at Projected Cost Objective

Beyond 300k Annual Tons

SO2 Reduction: $5,000/ton*

NOx Allowance: $5,000/ton**

*according to recent analysis by G. Stella of Alpine Geophysics, SO2 reductions costs increase exponentially beyond 300k tons reduced

**approximate value indicated for 2018 by EIA in AEO2005


Results 2018 reductions conservative projection of costs and demand impact
Results – 2018 Reductions, Conservative Projection of Costs and Demand Impact

SO2 Reduction: $2,115/ton*

NOx Allowance: $3,000/ton**

*average of per ton cost for annual reductions less than 300k tons (data from analysis by G. Stella of Alpine Geophysics)

**approximately mid-way between present day trade value and projection by EIA for 2018


Results summary
Results Summary Costs and Demand Impact


Conclusion linkage between energy modeling and air quality modeling with aeb
Conclusion: Linkage Between Energy Modeling and Air Quality Modeling with AEB

SM

Sensitivity Matrix captures the intelligence of CMAQ modeling runs with pollutant-specific, gridded, hourly sensitivity factors.

Expresses the modeled sensitivity of emissions and the ambient air in response to changes in power demand

Principal benefit: states’ tool for characterizing emissions and air quality benefits from EERE technologies / programs.


Acknowledgments
Acknowledgments Modeling with AEB

  • Bob Imhoff (BAMS),Principal Investigator

  • Jerry Condrey (BAMS), software tool development

  • Stan Hadley (ORNL), demand projections and power dispatch modeling

  • Ted Smith (BAMS), server side development (output products)

  • Joe Brownsmith (UNCA), EUI development

  • Dr. Saswati Datta (BAMS), data analysis

  • Jesse O’Neal (BAMS) project management and outreach

  • Marilyn Brown and Barbara Ashdown (ORNL), project directors

Questions and comments to: Bob Imhoff

Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems (BAMS)

[email protected]


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