TROUBLE AHEAD,
Sponsored Links
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
1 / 20

NCAF LEVERAGING CONFERENCE ST. PETERSBURG, FLORIDA OCTOBER 25, 2006 PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 71 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

TROUBLE AHEAD, TROUBLE BEHIND SOME THOUGHTS ON THE ENERGY OULOOK AND THE LOW-INCOME CONSUMER INTEREST. NCAF LEVERAGING CONFERENCE ST. PETERSBURG, FLORIDA OCTOBER 25, 2006. EIA Winter Outlook For 2006-2007. Heating Oil Prices Flat Heating Oil at $2.46 per gallon

Download Presentation

NCAF LEVERAGING CONFERENCE ST. PETERSBURG, FLORIDA OCTOBER 25, 2006

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


TROUBLE AHEAD, TROUBLE BEHINDSOME THOUGHTS ON THE ENERGY OULOOKAND THE LOW-INCOME CONSUMER INTEREST

NCAF LEVERAGING CONFERENCE

ST. PETERSBURG, FLORIDA

OCTOBER 25, 2006


EIA Winter Outlook For 2006-2007

  • Heating Oil Prices Flat

  • Heating Oil at $2.46 per gallon

  • Natural Gas Prices Down 16%, Propane Down 5%

  • Natural Gas at $12.23 per mcf, Propane at $1.85 per gallon

  • Electricity Prices up 5 %

  • National average of 10.1 cents per kwh

  • A Normal Winter Will Wash Away The Price Drop

  • Last Winter Was So Warm It Was Off The Charts!


HISTORY OF MIDWINTER NATURAL GAS COMMODITY PRICEPrice Trend For January 07 Futures Contract

Source: Wall Street Journal, 9/19/06


EXPECTED EXPENDITURES FOR 2006-2007Low-Income Households

Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS


SHORT-TERM MARKET CONDITIONS

SUPPLY

DEMAND

  • Inventories well above average levels for all major fuels

  • No repeats of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

  • Most (but not all) production losses from last year restored

  • Normal weather will increase demand

  • Consumers of fuel oil and propane now compete with European demand

  • Natural gas demand is highly dependent on industrial and power generation growth


RESIDENTIAL PRICE TRENDS SINCE 1997EIA HISTORICAL DATA

  • Home Heating Oil Prices have increased 138% since 1997

  • Natural Gas Prices have increased 85% since 1997

  • Electricity Prices are up 26% since 1997


AGGREGATE RESIDENTIAL ENERGY EXPENDITURES BY LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDSEligible for LIHEAP

Millions of Dollars

SOURCE: ORNL TABULATION BASED ON EIA STEO AND RECS


Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Imports Are Projected to Expand Through 2025(1970-2025, trillion cubic feet)


TIGHT MARKETS MEAN MISCHIEF

  • REMEMBER ENRON AND CALIFORNIA?

  • AN INVITATION TO SPECULATION AND MANIPULATION

  • WATCH OUT FOR THE ECONOMISTS!


HISTORY OF MIDWINTER NATURAL GAS COMMODITY PRICEPrice Trend For January 07 Futures Contract

Source: Wall Street Journal, 9/19/06


MARKET DANGERSMISALLOCATION

  • PROBLEMS COMMON TO ‘NETWORK’ INDUSTRIES

  • SUPPLY IS PRICED AT THE MARGIN WHILE CONSUMER PRICES DISCRIMINATE

  • BOOM AND BUST INVESTMENT CYCLES CREATE INCENTIVES FOR PRODUCERS TO TRY TO SHIFT RISKS TO CONSUMERS


MARKET DANGERSSPECULATION

  • A GROWING PERCENTAGE OF TRADE IN ENERGY MARKETS IS SPECULATIVE

  • THIS INCREASES PRICE VOLATILITY AND PUSHES PRICES UP AND DOWN MORE SHARPLY

  • MUCH OF THE TRADE IS UNREGULATED WITH NO OVERSIGHT


MARKET DANGERSMANIPULATION

  • WITH POOR REGULATION COMES LACK OF INFORMATION NEEDED TO PREVENT PROFITEERING

  • PRICES CAN BE MOVED IN EITHER DIRECTION!

  • UNDER THE RIGHT CIRCUMSTANCES INDIVIDUAL ACTORS CAN CONTROL AND DIRECT PRICES


WHAT CAN WE DO?

  • Don’t Drink The kool-Aid

  • Defend The Provider Of Least Resort With A Balanced Supply/Price Portfolio

  • Pursue Supply Surplus

  • Fight Monopoly Market Pricing

  • Keep Public Benefits Together- Sustainability and Affordability Hand In Hand

  • Consumer Protection Regulation & Info Vital

  • When’s The Next Train?


IN SHORT…

  • SIGN AND ORGANIZE AROUND THE PRINCIPLES OF ENERGY AND WATER SECURITY FOR ALL AMERICANS

  • www.ncaf.org/issues/energy


  • Login