TROUBLE AHEAD,
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 20

NCAF LEVERAGING CONFERENCE ST. PETERSBURG, FLORIDA OCTOBER 25, 2006 PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 67 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

TROUBLE AHEAD, TROUBLE BEHIND SOME THOUGHTS ON THE ENERGY OULOOK AND THE LOW-INCOME CONSUMER INTEREST. NCAF LEVERAGING CONFERENCE ST. PETERSBURG, FLORIDA OCTOBER 25, 2006. EIA Winter Outlook For 2006-2007. Heating Oil Prices Flat Heating Oil at $2.46 per gallon

Download Presentation

NCAF LEVERAGING CONFERENCE ST. PETERSBURG, FLORIDA OCTOBER 25, 2006

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Ncaf leveraging conference st petersburg florida october 25 2006

TROUBLE AHEAD, TROUBLE BEHINDSOME THOUGHTS ON THE ENERGY OULOOKAND THE LOW-INCOME CONSUMER INTEREST

NCAF LEVERAGING CONFERENCE

ST. PETERSBURG, FLORIDA

OCTOBER 25, 2006


Eia winter outlook for 2006 2007

EIA Winter Outlook For 2006-2007

  • Heating Oil Prices Flat

  • Heating Oil at $2.46 per gallon

  • Natural Gas Prices Down 16%, Propane Down 5%

  • Natural Gas at $12.23 per mcf, Propane at $1.85 per gallon

  • Electricity Prices up 5 %

  • National average of 10.1 cents per kwh

  • A Normal Winter Will Wash Away The Price Drop

  • Last Winter Was So Warm It Was Off The Charts!


History of midwinter natural gas commodity price price trend for january 07 futures contract

HISTORY OF MIDWINTER NATURAL GAS COMMODITY PRICEPrice Trend For January 07 Futures Contract

Source: Wall Street Journal, 9/19/06


Expected expenditures for 2006 2007 low income households

EXPECTED EXPENDITURES FOR 2006-2007Low-Income Households

Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS


Ncaf leveraging conference st petersburg florida october 25 2006

SHORT-TERM MARKET CONDITIONS

SUPPLY

DEMAND

  • Inventories well above average levels for all major fuels

  • No repeats of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

  • Most (but not all) production losses from last year restored

  • Normal weather will increase demand

  • Consumers of fuel oil and propane now compete with European demand

  • Natural gas demand is highly dependent on industrial and power generation growth


Residential price trends since 1997 eia historical data

RESIDENTIAL PRICE TRENDS SINCE 1997EIA HISTORICAL DATA

  • Home Heating Oil Prices have increased 138% since 1997

  • Natural Gas Prices have increased 85% since 1997

  • Electricity Prices are up 26% since 1997


Aggregate residential energy expenditures by low income households eligible for liheap

AGGREGATE RESIDENTIAL ENERGY EXPENDITURES BY LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDSEligible for LIHEAP

Millions of Dollars

SOURCE: ORNL TABULATION BASED ON EIA STEO AND RECS


Ncaf leveraging conference st petersburg florida october 25 2006

Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Imports Are Projected to Expand Through 2025(1970-2025, trillion cubic feet)


Tight markets mean mischief

TIGHT MARKETS MEAN MISCHIEF

  • REMEMBER ENRON AND CALIFORNIA?

  • AN INVITATION TO SPECULATION AND MANIPULATION

  • WATCH OUT FOR THE ECONOMISTS!


History of midwinter natural gas commodity price price trend for january 07 futures contract1

HISTORY OF MIDWINTER NATURAL GAS COMMODITY PRICEPrice Trend For January 07 Futures Contract

Source: Wall Street Journal, 9/19/06


Market dangers misallocation

MARKET DANGERSMISALLOCATION

  • PROBLEMS COMMON TO ‘NETWORK’ INDUSTRIES

  • SUPPLY IS PRICED AT THE MARGIN WHILE CONSUMER PRICES DISCRIMINATE

  • BOOM AND BUST INVESTMENT CYCLES CREATE INCENTIVES FOR PRODUCERS TO TRY TO SHIFT RISKS TO CONSUMERS


Market dangers speculation

MARKET DANGERSSPECULATION

  • A GROWING PERCENTAGE OF TRADE IN ENERGY MARKETS IS SPECULATIVE

  • THIS INCREASES PRICE VOLATILITY AND PUSHES PRICES UP AND DOWN MORE SHARPLY

  • MUCH OF THE TRADE IS UNREGULATED WITH NO OVERSIGHT


Market dangers manipulation

MARKET DANGERSMANIPULATION

  • WITH POOR REGULATION COMES LACK OF INFORMATION NEEDED TO PREVENT PROFITEERING

  • PRICES CAN BE MOVED IN EITHER DIRECTION!

  • UNDER THE RIGHT CIRCUMSTANCES INDIVIDUAL ACTORS CAN CONTROL AND DIRECT PRICES


What can we do

WHAT CAN WE DO?

  • Don’t Drink The kool-Aid

  • Defend The Provider Of Least Resort With A Balanced Supply/Price Portfolio

  • Pursue Supply Surplus

  • Fight Monopoly Market Pricing

  • Keep Public Benefits Together- Sustainability and Affordability Hand In Hand

  • Consumer Protection Regulation & Info Vital

  • When’s The Next Train?


In short

IN SHORT…

  • SIGN AND ORGANIZE AROUND THE PRINCIPLES OF ENERGY AND WATER SECURITY FOR ALL AMERICANS

  • www.ncaf.org/issues/energy


  • Login