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Bruce R. Barkstrom Asheville, NC Paula L. Sidell League City, TX

Explore the challenges and accounting considerations involved in estimating the cost of preserving Earth science data for long-term information preservation.

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Bruce R. Barkstrom Asheville, NC Paula L. Sidell League City, TX

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  1. Bruce R. Barkstrom Asheville, NC Paula L. Sidell League City, TX The Challenge of Software Cost Estimation for Long-Term Information Preservation of Earth Science Data

  2. Outline • The Accountant's View of Earth Science Data • Information Preservation • Threats create contingent liabilities that are needed to prevent asset impairments • The Role of Software Development in Earth Science Information Accounting • Cost Modeling • The necessity for economy in information preservation • An interesting factor: the cost of control

  3. Basic Accounting Questions • Key Question: What value should the governmentcarry on its books for Earth science datain its archives? • Accountant Answers: • Use “market value” - but Earth science data is a public good, without a market (except maybe high resolution imagery) • Use “cost of reproduction” - but Earth science data is not “reproducible” - if you miss it, it's gone • Use “Net Present Value of stream of future benefits” - but science data value likely not just economic

  4. An Accounting View of the Value of Earth Science Data • Earth science data appears to fall into the category of “cultural, artistic, and scientific” asset • Non-depreciable • Public good • Value arises from data use • Accounting treatment of assets • Launch vehicles, satellites, and instruments are “equipment costs” - “sunk expenses” at end of life • Some “operating expenses” may be viewed as “insurance against value impairment” • Direct cost of software to interpret data and for activities of cal and val are readily measured • Earth Science Data Value represents the cost of the investment in making the data useful

  5. Data Uses for Societal Benefits • USGEO (and related programs) have identified 9 societal benefit areas • Data Uses usefully divided by time scale of required observation period (sample uses)

  6. The Accountant's View of Value • Accountants View an Organization in terms of the Flow of Funds • Funds are placed in a Chart of Accounts • Frequent changes in the Chart of Accounts are • not allowed in standard rules of accounting A Basic Chart of Accounts Funding Balance Requires Or Sum of Asset Changesplus Sum of Liability Changes equals Difference Between Income and Expenses

  7. Information Asset Valuation • For Activity • T: Activity produces a Tangible asset, such as hardware, software source code, or documentation • I: Activity produces an Intangible asset, primarily information that may be used by researchers, decision makers, or other data users • For Expected Interval • LOM: Life Of Mission, which may be taken as ten years for a single satellite or instrument, and which may increase to more than a century for operational environmental observation capability • LOD: Life Of Data, which NARA defines as 75 years beyond scientific research use. Here, we take this time period to be 200 years – give or take • For Accounting Basis • M: Modified Accrual accounting basis • F: Full Accrual accounting basis • For Account Type • DC: Development and Construction • O: Operations • HS: Hardware and Software, including accounts for initial capitalization, depreciation, and refresh/upgrades • SD: Specialized scientific software Development

  8. Practical Asset Valuation • Three Standard Methods • Acquisition Cost • Ultimate Residual Cost attributable to investment in calibration, data production, validation, and reprocessing • Replacement Cost • No possible replacement of lost observations • Net Present Value of Flow of Future Value • Non-economic nature of data use of a public good makes method moot • Common-Sense Approach • Use of data must be timely, relevant, and reliable • Value of data based on cost of expert interpretation as embedded in software and cal-val cost

  9. Expense Accounts • Non-depreciable Asset subject to Asset Impairment • Equivalent to buying insurance to reduce loss of value due to asset impairment • Standard Approach to Insurance Cost • Identify threats • Estimate probability of loss and probable value of loss if threat materializes • Develop affordable strategy to mitigate risk

  10. The Challenges of Preservation • Stringent Requirements • Potential Loss Mechanisms • Institutional instability and funding flow changes • Operator errors • Media, hardware, and software errors • Loss of context, including software obsolescence • IT security incidents with loss of user trust • Evolution of hardware and software

  11. A Refined Balance Sheet

  12. The Role of Cost Modeling • Three Eras in an Earth Science Data Collection: • Science Software Development • Production and Validation • Archive Preservation Management • Three Kinds of Cost Modeling Challenges • In 1st phase: Initial Ignorance • In 2nd phase: Unplannable and uncontrollable activities • In 3rd phase: Level of effort with minimum cost

  13. Contingency Management • Working Hypothesis: • Unplannable and uncontrollable activities arise because of • Initial ignorance (finite number of bugs) • Changes in environment (long-term = Annual Change Traffic in classic COCOMO) • Unplannable and uncontrollable activities create need for resource contingencies • Approaches to Contingency Management • Squeeze out unplannable and uncontrollable activities = Waterfall Lifecycle • Reduce time in discovery-fix development-fix deployment = Agile Lifecycle

  14. The Cost of Control • Attempting to “Squeeze Out” Uncertainty Incurs Control Costs • Education (inculcate “right behavior” through training) • Communication (staff meetings as “consensus builder”) • Enforcement (hiring and firing costs) • Choice of Lifecycle • Rationale: balance control costs against benefits of approach • Probable optimal strategies: • Low likelihood of unplannable and uncontrollable activities – use Waterfall (concentrate on control) • Moderate liklihood of unplannable and uncontrollable activities– use Spiral (balance control costs against contingency costs) • High likelihood of unplannable and uncontrollable activities – use Agile (concentrate on rapid discovery and removal of contingencies)

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