Maryland Climate Change: Observed and Model Simulated
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Maryland Climate Change: Observed and Model Simulated Temperature Precipitation & Runoff. Progress Report to MDE October 30, 2008. Dr. Konstantin Vinnikov, Acting State Climatologist for Maryland Prof. Russell Dickerson, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science

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Maryland Climate Change: Observed and Model Simulated

Temperature Precipitation & Runoff

Progress Report to MDE

October 30, 2008

Dr. Konstantin Vinnikov, Acting State Climatologist for Maryland

Prof. Russell Dickerson, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science

University of Maryland at College Park, MD


East Coast States:

Observed Seasonal Variation of Mean Air Temperature and Trend


East Coast States:

Observed Seasonal Variation of Mean Precipitation and Trend


East Coast Rivers:

Observed Seasonal

Variations of

Runoff and Trend


Annual Cycle of Precipitation at MD and VA has MAX in the Summer and MIN in the Autumn.

This makes our climate so nice.


The most important observed century scale climatic trends Summer and MIN in the Autumn.

at Maryland and Virginia


How well climatic models simulate seasonal variation of atmospheric precipitation?

OBSERVED

MODEL SIMULATIONS


How well models reproduce observed atmospheric precipitation

1895-2008 climatic trends?

Observed trends

Trends in model simulated climate variations


How well climatic models simulate future climate change? atmospheric precipitation

SUMMER

AUTUMN


CONCLUSIONS: atmospheric precipitation

  • Mid-East Coast states enjoy beautiful climate with seasonal Max of precipitation in the Summer and Min in the Autumn.

  • Global warming 1895-2008 has been accompanied by a decrease in Summer -and increase in Autumn precipitation in MD, VA, and other Mid-East Coast states.

  • These observed changes in precipitation are real and result in the observed Summer decrease and Autumn increase of river runoff.

  • GFDL/NOAA Climate Model global warming scenario simulations give us hope that the observed century scale Summer precipitation trend in MD & VA is going to change from a decreasing trend to an increasing trend.


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