What explains germany s rebounding export market share
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What Explains Germany’s Rebounding Export Market Share. Stephan Danninger (IMF Research Department) Fred Joutz (George Washington University) September 2008. Germany regains export market share since 2000. German Export Sector: Stylized Facts. Export market share

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What Explains Germany’s Rebounding Export Market Share

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What explains germany s rebounding export market share

What Explains Germany’s Rebounding Export Market Share

Stephan Danninger

(IMF Research Department)

Fred Joutz

(George Washington University)

September 2008


Germany regains export market share since 2000

Germany regains export market share since 2000


German export sector stylized facts

German Export Sector: Stylized Facts

  • Export market share

    • Globally: recovery since 2000

    • From 16-20% among industrial countries

    • From 37-40% in Euro area

  • GDP growth

    • Since 2000: 80% of growth from net exports


Questions and implications

Questions and implications

Possible explanations

  • Global demand growth?

  • Allocation of production processes?

  • Other: e.g. price competitiveness

    Assess empirical contribution of hypotheses

    Economic and welfare implications

  • Gains through growth of global trade

    (e.g. economies of scale)

  • Income redistribution

    Re-organization of production processes


Preview of results

Preview of Results

German exports driven by:

  • Global market growth (export ties)

  • Reorganization of production process

  • Other traditional factors

    • Improvement in cost competitiveness

      Recovery in export market share 2000-05

      ► 30% Global trade growth: German specific

      ► 30% Regionalized production

      ► 40% Other and residual (unexplained)

      Empirical challenge to gauge economic impact


Outline

Outline

I. Potential explanations

  • Stylized facts and literature

    II. Empirical models of export growth

    III. Empirical contribution to change in market share


I potential explanations four hypotheses

I. Potential explanations:Four Hypotheses

1.Regained cost competitiveness

  • Wage moderation: undoing of unification related wage cost hike

  • IMF (2001), Blanchard & Phillipon (2004)

    2. Ties to fast growing trading partners

  • “Favorable product mix” (Everaert et al 2005),

    3. Demand shift to capital goods

  • Global investment boom (WEO 2006)

  • “Pathological export" growth (Sinn 2006, Davis 1998)

    4. Regionalization of production processes

  • Off-shoring (Sinn 2006, Marin 2005)

  • Vertical specialization (Hummels 2001)


1 regained cost competitiveness

1. Regained cost competitiveness


2 ties to fast growing trading partners

2. Ties to Fast Growing Trading Partners

Reasons

  • Long-standing ties to oil exporters and Emerging Asia

  • Attractive product mix (German brand)

    Evidence 2000-05

  • High export growth to Asia and oil exporters

  • Strong global export demand growth


Exports to asia and oil exporters

Exports to Asia and Oil Exporters


3 meeting global investment demand

3. Meeting Global Investment Demand

Reasons

  • Global cycle: strong investment growth

  • Germany: specialized in capital goods

    Evidence 2000-05 (mixed)

  • Investment growth in German partner countries higher than in industrial countries

  • Share of capital goods in German exports stable/fallen


Investment activity global and by german trade partners

Investment Activity: Global and by German Trade Partners


4 regionalization of production

4. Regionalization of Production

Reasons

  • Global labor supply increase

  • Eastward European integration

  • High German wage costs for low skilled

    Evidence 2000-05

  • Increased imported inputs in export sector e.g. Sinn (2006)

  • Decline in domestic value added in traded sector

  • Cost reduction from off-shoring

    (e.g. Marin 2006)


Domestic value added in export sector

Domestic Value Added in Export Sector


Ii empirical export model

II. Empirical Export Model

Time series model tailored to Germany

Sample: quarterly data 1993-2005

Variables

Xgr Quarterly real commodity exports

Reer_ulc Real effective exchange rate at unit labor costs

GdemGermany’s global export demand (WEO)

  • Trade weighted real imports in partner countries

    GinvInvestment activity in Germany’s trade partners

  • Trade weighted investment in partner countries

    Ind_VADomestic value added in industry

  • Share of domestic value added in industrial output


Estimation approach

Estimation Approach

Determine cointegrating relationship

  • All variables in log levels are I(1)

  • CI(Xgr Reer_ulc, Gdem, Ginv, Ind_VA)

    General to specific approach

  • A simple unrestricted VAR was estimated

  • Evaluated for statistical fit and stability.

  • Lag structure of the VAR is determined.

  • Test for equilibrium or cointegrating relation(s) among the variables.


Long run relationships standard export model

Long-run Relationships: Standard Export Model

Standard findings on determinants

  • Exchange Rate Elasticity of about 0.4%

  • Unit Global Export Demand Elasticity

  • 85% of “disequilibrium corrected” in 4 quarters


Long run relationships augmented by the regionalization hypothesis

Long-run Relationships: Augmented by the Regionalization Hypothesis

Expanded model with improved fit

  • Low real exchange rate elasticity

    • Consistent with weakening of traditional channel

  • Global demand elasticity less than unity

    • Decline possibly due to omitted variable bias

  • Decline in domestic value added increases export

    • Consistent with hypothesis of Germany becoming a trading hub (Sinn 2006)


Iii explaining germany s export market share vis a vis industrial countries

III. Explaining Germany’s Export Market Share vis a vis Industrial Countries

Approximation

  • Decompose foreign export demand into

    • Growth common to all industrial countries

    • Growth specific to Germany

  • Export growth in excess of common component lead to gain in market share:

    • REERulc, Ind_VA, Germany specific demand

      Caveats

  • Limited sensitivity analyses

  • Assume similar effects across countries

  • No standard error of estimates

  • Decomposition biased towards lower German specific export demand growth


Explaining the increase of export market share

Explaining the Increase of Export Market Share


Conclusions

Conclusions

Export market share recovery since 2000

Model explains

  • 85% export growth

  • 70% of market share recovery since 2000

    Main factors for market share recovery

  • 30% Growth in global demand (product mix?)

  • 30% Regionalization of production (“Bazaar”?)

  • 10% Cost improvement (despite euro apprc.)

    But economic implications cannot be assessed

    (e.g.: gains of trade?, re-allocation of production processes?)


Data needs a practitioners view

Data needs: A practitioners view

Assessing economic effects requires more detailed trade data

Real trade flows

  • Disaggregated by sector

    • But high level of aggregation (1-2digit)

  • Differentiation by types of goods

    • Inputs, capital, and consumption goods

  • Comparability over time

    • At least 15 years (quarterly frequency)

  • Cross country comparability

    • Capture institutions, regulation, and economic structure


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