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21 ISMOR 1 September 2004 Analytic Decision Support in a Civilian Organization:OPP&A in the CPA David F. Davis George Mason University [email protected] http://popp.gmu.edu. OED. IRMO/Planning. OPP&A. POPP. I’m really not representing any of these!. Our Logo from IRMO/Planning.

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21 ISMOR 1 September 2004 Analytic Decision Support in a Civilian Organization:OPP&A in the CPA

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21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

21 ISMOR

1 September 2004

Analytic Decision Support in a Civilian Organization:OPP&A in the CPA

David F. Davis

George Mason University

[email protected]

http://popp.gmu.edu


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

OED

IRMO/Planning

OPP&A

POPP

I’m really not representing any of these!


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

Our Logo from IRMO/Planning

(I’ll use it from here on)


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

Decision Support

The Plans

The Questions

The Analysis

The Issues


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

The Plans

Military Campaign Plans

Civilian Plans

Future of Iraq – DOS Late 2002

Unified Mission Plan – CPA April 2003

Initial Strategic Plan – CPA late summer 2003

Transition Strategic Plan – CPA November 2003

Mission Performance Plan – Embassy July 2004

OIF 1 – Coalition 2002/2003

– Coalition April 2003

– Coalition Nov. 2003

Update – MNF-I July 2004

Initial planning appears to have been disconnected.

Subsequent planning was more coordinated.

MNF-I and late CPA/Embassy planning verged on collaboration.


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

The CPA Strategic Plan

Towards Transition

Based, in part, on previous work done for other missions, the Strategic Plan began with the primary goal of CPA and refined each of the sub-goals, or sectors, into objectives – then key tasks – and finally sub-tasks. The sub-tasks were monitored on a weekly basis and progress was identified by the responsible – operational – organization.


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

A Look at the MPP

  • Three overarching themes are addressed in the introduction to the MPP.

    • Fighting Terror

    • Building Democracy

    • Reconstruction and Economic Development.

  • These same three themes are put forth by Ambassador Negroponte quite frequently as:

    • Political: Democratization and the Rule of Law

    • Economic: Development and Reconstruction

    • Security: Eliminating Terrorism and Providing Public Safety


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

Structure of the MPP

Performance Goal Papers

Strategic Goals

Performance Goals

Strategies

Tactics

Performance Indicators

The structure of the MPP is similar to that of the Strategic Plan – it is a decomposition of goals to activities.


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

Performance Goal Papers

I – Prevention and Response to Terrorism

II – Regional Stability

III – Weapons of Mass Destruction

IV – Democracy and Human Rights

V – Economic Prosperity and Security

VI – Consular Affairs

VII – Mission Security

VIII – Mutual Understanding

IX – Education and Health Services

X – Humanitarian Response

XI – Management and Organizational Excellence

  • Although comprehensive, these Goal Papers do not track directly with the themes. Very generally, they map as follows:

    • Political: IV, VIII

    • Economic: V, IX, X

    • Security: I, II, III

  • With the core Embassy Operations accounting for VI, VII and XI.


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

Other Categorization Schemes

UN Clusters

World Bank Sectors

2207 Categories

USAID Primary Sectors

The Conceptual Model of Peace Operations

Although very similar, the determination of what activity or project belongs to what category becomes very difficult to predetermine. Knowing this ‘mapping’ is essential as we try to understand how spending and resource allocation relates to the overall goals and priorities of the Mission.


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

The Questions

The bottom line: Not enough!

However, most of the questions revolved around priorities.

Under CPA:

- What are the risks to the Transition?

- What should be the top five priorities for the Administrator?

Under IRMO:

- How should the $18.4B be allocated?

- What should be measured?


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

The Analysis

The bottom line: Not enough!

However, most of the questions revolved around priorities.

Under CPA:

- What are the risks to the Transition?

- What should be the top five priorities for the Administrator?

Under IRMO:

- How should the $18.4B be allocated?

- What should be measure?


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

The Risks

Identifying the risks to the transition required that we used the current Strategic Plan.

If the Objectives of the Strategic Plan represent the requirements, then the Amber and Red Objectives should help us begin the analysis of Risk – Probability of Failure.


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

Goal Tree


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

Tree Update


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

The Model


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

Microsoft Belief Network


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

Microsoft Belief Network Evaluated


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

The Allocation

How can we propose a reallocation of the $18.4B?

This effort has consumed the Embassy, although it was never a major issue in the CPA. This dichotomy may well be the source of many books over the next several years.

Beginning in early June, the IRMO Planning office began to look at this issue from a goals based perspective.


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

MPP High Level Goals

Security

Economic

Eliminate

Terrorism

Economic

Development

DGS

The analysis was an attempt to show the relationship between the ‘plan’ and the $18.4B.

Democratization and the Rule of Law

Political


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

MPP Strategic Goals

1 Counter Terrorism

2 A Strong Reliable Regional Partner

5 Sustainable Growth

3 Complete and Verifiable Disarmament

9 Social, Environmental, Health and Education

4 A Democratic and Free Iraq

10 Refugees and IDPs


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

PMO Categories Impacting MPP Strategic Goals

Security and Law Enforcement

Electricity

Transportation and Telecommunications

Oil

Water Resources and Sanitation

Health

Justice, Public Safety Infrastructure and Civil Society

Education, Refugees, Human Rights and Governance


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

USAID Sectors Impacting MPP Strategic Goals

Ports and Airports

Public Utilities and Infrastructure

Health

Education

Emergency

Local Governance and Civic Action

Economic Recovery, Reform and Sustained Growth


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

993

Ongoing or Completed

Million US$

53

Public Utilities and Infrastructure

0

Ports and Airports

Security and Law Enforcement

Electricity

Transportation and Telecommunications

Oil

471

661

752

Water Resources and Sanitation

232

Justice, Public Safety Infrastructure and Civil Society

Education, Refugees, Human Rights and Governance

0

Health

31

42

0

Health

Education

1.5

Emergency

90

Local Governance and Civic Action

Economic Recovery, Reform and Sustained Growth

64

15

USAID project money only, does not include program overhead and direct salaries

PMO as of 14 June 2004, USAID as of 17 June 2004


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

$3,162M

Ongoing or Completed

Million US$

Public Utilities and Infrastructure

Ports and Airports

Security and Law Enforcement

Electricity

13:1

Oil

Transportation and Telecommunications

Water Resources and Sanitation

Justice, Public Safety Infrastructure and Civil Society

Education, Refugees, Human Rights and Governance

Health

Health

Education

Emergency

Local Governance and Civic Action

Economic Recovery, Reform and Sustained Growth

$243.5M

USAID project money only, does not include program overhead and direct salaries


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

How should we be spending the money?

If we are to be spending the money to further the goals of the Mission, then we should try to understand how each of the projects and activities contribute to those goals. This will require some innovative thought on the part of all stakeholders: US, International Partners and the Iraqis.

  • The IRMO Planning approach to this problem uses both quantitative and qualitative techniques of Management Science and Operations Research.

  • Identify projects and activities within funding sectors by source of funding and primary agent (PCO, USAID, IC, Iraqi)

  • Score these projects, within sectors, on the project’s/activity’s contribution to the second level Goals of the COM.

  • Score the second level Goals on their contribution to the overall Mission.

  • Determine the combined scores for each alternative allocation strategy.

The choice of allocation strategy will be made by the leadership, not the analyst.


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

Identify contribution of projects and activities to the sectors.

The advocacy briefings indicated that in sector priority lists exist in almost every case. These priority lists and the contribution of the project to the mission goals could be used to provide for project scoring within sector.

However, this initial effort is focused on determining an investment strategy, not individual sector spending plans. The scoring must represent the general utility expected of a project within a sector.


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

Alternative Allocations

GAO Sector Description


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

Review

Scoring:

Contribution of Projects to Goals

Contribution of Projects to Sectors

Contribution of Goals to Mission


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

The Model

Allocate resources to the sectors in order to maximize the total utility (effectiveness), subject to the requirement that the total resources do not exceed $M (currently set to $18.2m).

Maximize

Where wi is the Weight of Sector i, ui is the utility of Sector i , ai is the distribution to Sector i, and fi is defined as a piece-wise linear function.

S.T.

And


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

Utility Functions – fi

U

1.0

U = M(2)*A + B

X

U = M(1)*A

A, in $

A(1)

A(N)


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

In Sector Utilities

Utilities (1.0 Maximum)

($1000s)


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

Sector Weights


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

Alternative Comparisons

Change from Base


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

Relative Scores

The combination of effectiveness and importance allows for a calculation of the overall score.


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

The Issues

Culture of Analysis

Intent of the Office v. Background of the Director

Asking questions for which answers are desired


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

Cornwallis X

Proposed Theme: Analysis for the Multi-National Inter-Agency

The ‘Multi-Agency.’

Location is being decided by the committee since the Pearson Peacekeeping Centre is no longer available for conferences in residence.

1: The Royal Military College in Kingston, Ontario, Canada

2: The Boyana Palace, Sofia, Bulgaria

3: The Holiday Inn – Las Cruces, Las Cruces, New Mexico, USA


21 ismor 1 september 2004 analytic decision support in a civilian organization opp a in the cpa

Cornwallis Committee Members

Mr. S Anders Christensson

National Defence College

SE 117 93 Stockholm

Sweden

+46 70 628 9678 Voice

[email protected]

Dr. Reiner K. Huber

Bundeswehr University

D-85577 Neubiberg

Germany

+49(089)6004-2206 Voice

[email protected]

Dr. George Rose

Group Leader

Support to Operations

PCS Department

Dstl Farnborough

+44 1252 45 1825 Voice

[email protected]

Mr. E.P. Visco

3752 Capulet Trace

Silver Spring, MD 20906

+1 (301) 598-8048 [Voice/Fax]

[email protected]

Larry Wentz

GMU Center of Exellence in C3I

+1 703-757-1250 Voice

+1 703-757-1251 Fax

[email protected]

Professor D.F. Davis, Program Chair

George Mason University, MS3B1

3401 N. Fairfax Dr.

Arlington, VA 22201, USA

+1 (703) 993-1703 Voice

[email protected]

Dr. Ted Woodcock, Co-Chair and Editor

School of Public Policy

4400 University Dr.

Fairfax, VA 22030

+1 (703) 993-2280 Voice

[email protected]

Mr. Karl Bertsche

Daimler-Benz/Dornier

88039 Friedrichshafen, Germany

+49(7545)89613 Voice

[email protected]

Dr. Paul Chouinard

Strategic Planning Operations Research Team

101 Colonel Bye Dr.

Ottawa, Ontario

Canada, K1A OK2

+1 (613) 992-4500 Voice

[email protected]


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